Last year scoring in the NFL was at an ALL TIME HIGH.
The average scoring in NFL games for 2020 was 49.6 pts/game.
The previous record was 46.8 pts/game.
Thats a 2.8 pt/game difference! Almost a FG!
Why might this be? No crowd noise last year may have been a factor. Also teams are being more aggressive going for it on 4th and short on their opponents side of the field. We know this because punting in the NFL was at an ALL TIME LOW averaging only 3.7 punts per game.
How do we use this to our advantage?
First, we can assume with crowd noise coming back that scoring is probably not going to break the average of last year and will come back down. I'm guessing around 47.5 pts/game to 48 pts/game. This means we look for totals that we think are inflated and bet the under.
CFB had 65% of their games hit the under. Might see something similar in NFL week 1.
Betting week 1 NFL we should look to bet unders where we think we have an advantage. Use the data above to help you figure out where you can find an edge. I would start with offenses that have NEW QBs which there are 12 teams with new QBs (this doesn't mean rookies this means new QB on a new team in a new system).
Look for week 1 unders, selectively look to play team totals on road teams under, and look to selectively play 1H and 1Q unders.
I'll have mine listed for you guys of course so don't worry! Just wanted to share some data with you!
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Here's where the money is at in MLB today!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html
Here's today's games!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html
Jackson Dart under 40.5 rushing yards
Dart became the third player in NFL history to rush for 50+ yards in his first three games.
But his injury/concussion he had last week nearly gave Deboll a heart attack when he had to let Russell Wilson come in the game. Look for Deboll to not rush Dart much in this game and to encourage him to not be so reckless when he takes off.
Denver is really good at stopping running QBs. Since the start of last season Denver has only allowed 1 QB to go over 40.5 rush yards. They stopped Lamar, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, Fields and many more. Now they are home ready to take on this rookie QB.
How are NFL teams doing against the spread this season?
THE BEST (ALL 4-2 ATS)
Colts
Lions
Seahawks
Buccaneers
Rams
Patriots
Panthers
Jaguars
THE BAD (ALL 2-4 ATS)
Bengals
Titans
Raiders
Browns
Saints
Bills
Broncos
THE WORST (1-5 ATS)
Ravens
NFL WEEK 3 CARD
SIDES AND ML
TEN +3.5 +100
TEN ML +174
CAR +5.5
CAR ML +203
LV +3.5
LV ML +148
GB -7.5
MIN -3
LAR +3 +104
LAR ML +165
HOU ML +110
DEN +3 -120
NO +7.5
TEASERS
POOL
MIA +17.5
MIA/BUF O 44.5
CAR +11.5
LV +9.5
GB -1.5
HOU +7
DEN +9
NO +13.5
LAR +9
NYJ +12.5
MY TEASER PICKS
MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155
LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150
CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150
LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
