Let me share with you where my mind is going for these games and where the lines are at.

This week might be a little different than the first two weeks. My first reaction is A LOT of these lines feel right and spot on. I don't see many dogs that I would like to bet on. Probably going to stick to a select amount of teasers and straight plays this week, maybe try to exploit some player props. Don't get suckered into any picks that look too good. Remember, teams that are 0-2 are going to be desperate BUT not all of them are necessarily going to win or cover. I will try to identify them as best I can this week because this is the time of the season where the books start catching up and winning.

CAR @ HOU

UPDATE: Tyrol is not starting. I don’t think this will make a huge difference but be cautious

CAR -7.5 feels like the line is right BUT I think CAR is starting to get a little over valued. But I'm not ready to bet on HOU who has exceed expectations. both team are 2-0 ATS. I will probably play HOU in this game but we will wait and see as I think this game could be a close one and I have less worry about HOU not coming out and giving effort. IF YOU CAN GET THIS LINE AT 8 YOU SHOULD TEASE IT UP TO 14 OR MORE. I'm waiting for my book to do this so I can tie it to several plays on Sunday.

AZ @ JAX

I honestly thin JAX is terrible. BUT as much as I like AZ they might be overvalued in this game at -7.5 on the road. I would stay away from this game, even in a teaser. It's the NFL anything can happen and JAX could upset AZ here (unlikely). But also JAX could get blown out. I just don't trust either team and it may feel easy to take AZ here but I will pass.

IND @ TEN

IND is a desperate team sitting at 0-2 and now heading into a divisional game on the road. I WARN anyone who is thinking TEN is an easy win at -5. Although I think they can win this game I still question whether they figured out their offense or not. TEN defense isn't great either. If Wentz doesn't play I think everyone is going to JUMP all over TEN. My initial thoughts is to stay away from this game but if the public moves this line to IND +6 or more I may have to throw IND into a teaser just purely on value. For now I have no play.

BAL @ DET

BAL -7.5 feels right but is a terrible number. I may go square and tease BAL down and would be worried about the momentum they bring from last week's win over KC. But DET's terrible second half on MNF makes me feel confident BAL will figure it out and get the W in this one. So a teaser is all I see now I can't lay -7.5 at this time.

WAS @ BUF

I think BUF could actually cover the 8.5 but I'm not willing to bet it yet. If BUF is going to be like they were last year then they roll in this game. I usually don't like betting a team that dominated the week before (they won 35-0 against a divisional opponent) but their star QB did not play good at all which makes me think this is where Josh Allen finally steps up and shines. I like to bet on stars when I think they can shine and this might be that moment.

NO @ NE

I have already bet NO +3 and over 43 in this game (total is now 41.5 which looks I may have bet a bad number but oh well). I told you guys I don't bet as a fan I will go against my team. I think NO was embarrassed last week (which I predicted) and they bounce back this week. I would maybe be on NE here if their offense looked better but they just haven't shown yet that they can punch it in and get the TDs. Too many FGs is why I will take the points with NO and think they have a bigger upside for scoring.

LAC @ KC

I really think KC will bounce back and be pissed off in this game. What worries me is this is a divisional game and KC's defense looked so bad. LAC's offense struggled and I think would bounce back to the norm especially against KC's defense. I'm not ready to bet either side here but I don't think KC loses 2 in a row (especially at home) so I like KC in a tease down to PK (being square again).

CHI @ CLE

I'm tempted to lay 7 with CLE. I don't think Fields is ready for a defense like CLE. I like that CLE struggled last week but overcame it which makes me think they can run up the score on CHI easily once getting a little momentum. Probably will tease CLE down here.

CIN @ PIT

You already know I am low on CIN. I don't think PIT loses 2 at home and typically PIT dominates CIN. I would lay the 3.5 here with PIT even though the number is bad but I doubt the public is crazy enough to bet CIN +3.5 and drive this down to 3 (although if they do you should jump on PIT -3 and tease it).

MIA @ LV

Part of me wants to take MIA here at +3.5 but we will see. I don't have much on this yet.

NYJ @ DEN

Denver will win this game. Home opener against a terrible Jets' offense. I wouldn't lay 10.5 and I don't know if I will tease this game yet. More to come.

TB @ LAR

THIS MAY BE A BIG PLAY FOR ME!!! I'm not being a fan here I just can't believe this line opened TB +1. Now it's TB -1 and I think everyone is way too high on LAR and the fact we get this game at basically PK I might go big on TB. I'll take the defending champs (even with their defensive questions) because TB has proven it to me before, this Rams team has not. We really don't know how good the Rams are while TB we at least know has an unstoppable offense.

SEA @ MIN

I think MIN will start to crumble. I was high on them this year but starting 0-2 was not apart of their plans. Rumors that Zimmer has lost the locker room makes me like SEA here. The fact SEA lost last week in OT means they will be focused up and I would rather have my money on them rather than whatever we will get out of MIN.

GB @ SF

SF has dominated GB in the last few years. I will just leave the fact there and let you decide what side I will be on.

PHI @ DAL

I need to do more research but for now PHI +4 might be the right side.