And it begins...

First off I want to start this by saying I had a bad week last week. I don't let it affect me and neither should you if you were in the same boat. It happens this game is about ups and downs so let's move onto this week with the expectations of cashing tickets!

Next thing I want to say is YOU DO NOT HAVE TO TAIL THESE TEASERS OR MY PICKS. Some of the stuff that I am releasing here early can be viewed as reckless and I get that. I personally have bet all of these because I feel confident in them. It's Tuesday night as I am typing the first stage of this and I placed a bunch of teaser bets because lines are going to move soon and I want to get the best number. BUT you will notice I have all of these tied to some of the same teams and there's a reason for that. Let me explain.

I love several teasers this week and at this point in the NFL season I feel I can say that with my record in my teaser pool. I don't see how CIN, TEN, KC, or TB lose this week. TEN is facing NYJ who have shown me no reason to believe they can move the ball on anyone at this point. KC is going to be motivated and if PHI is going to only bring 4 each then KC is going to carve them up just like DAL did. Now maybe CIN loses because it's CIN but I have no confidence in JAX especially on a short week on the road. Maybe NE pulls off the upset but TB is way more talented than NE and Tom is set up for a historic night. Plus, it's the last leg so we can hedge all these bets if needed.

With that being said, here's my card for the weekend. I'll throw random thoughts below.

Survivor Pick: CIN✅

Mega Contest Picks (subject to change all the way up to kickoff)

IND +2.5✅
NYG +7.5✅
CLE PK✅
KC -6.5✅
BAL +1✅

CFB + NFL PICKS

T: = teaser

Miami/Virginia 1H under 30.5✅

T: Miami +1 / CIN -1.5 -110 ❌

Maryland ML +145❌

T: CFB 9 way 7 point teaser +1250❌
ORE -1 / Army -2 / ND +9 / USC PK / ARK-UGA u 57 / TEX +3 / UAB +5 / MICH +9.5 / Maryland +9.5

T: FLA -2 / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 +160❌

T: MISS +20.5 / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 +160❌

T: ORE -2 / TEN -1.5 / KC -1.5 / TB PK +250❌

T: ARK +24.5 / TB PK / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 +250❌

Michigan +1✅

Texas -4✅

Texas TT o 35.5❌

Georgia -15.5✅

Colorado TT u 21.5✅

USC -7✅

UAB -1.5❌

ISU -34✅

WKU +11❌

ALA/OLE under 80 ✅

ASU +3 ✅

ASU ML✅

OSU -2.5 ✅

IND/PSU u 57✅

T: USC -2.5 / MICH +8 / UGA -9.5 / TEX +2 +260 ✅

T: TB PK / KC -1.5 / Maryland +9.5 +160 ❌

T: TEN -1.5 / CIN -1.5 / Memphis -5 +160❌

T: ORST +3.5 / KC -1.5 / TB PK / TEN -1.5 / CIN -1.5 +420❌

T: ND +8 / MICH +7 / CIN -1.5 / TB PK / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 +600❌

T: TB PK / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 / CIN -1.5 / MICH +7 +420❌

T: BYU -2.5 / CIN -1.5 / KC -1.5 / TEN -1.5 / TB PK +420❌

T: ASU +9.5 / TB PK / KC -1.5 / CIN -1.5 +250✅

T: TB PK / CIN -1.5 / KC -1.5 +160✅

CIN - 7.5❌

ARI/LA o 54.5

TEN -7❌

BAL -1✅

NYG +8✅

IND ML +115✅

T: NYJ +12 / NE +13✅

T: PIT +12 / under 50.5✅

T: PIT +12 / BAL +5✅

T: CLE +5 / TB -1✅

T: KC PK / NYG +14✅

Parlay: KC -7.5 / CLE -1 / NYG +7 Pays +652✅

Parlay: KC -7.5 / CLE -1 / NYG +7 / ATL ML / DET ML / CAR +4 Pays +7051❌

T: ATL +7.5 / DET +9 ❌

Parlay: PIT +7 / under 45.5 ❌

T: KC -1.5 / TB PK / TEN -1.5 / CIN -1.5 / Miami (CFB) +1 +420 ❌

Teaser Pool 6 point standard (NFL record 37-10-2)

CIN -1.5✅
ATL +7.5✅
TEN -1❌
MIN +7.5✅
IND +7.5✅
CLE/MIN o 45❌
CAR +11✅
NYG +13.5✅
KC -1.5✅
KC/PHI u 60.5❌
PIT +12.5✅
PIT/GB u 51.5✅
ARI/LAR o 48.5✅
SF +3.5❌
BAL +5✅
TB -1✅
TB/NE o 43❌
LV +9.5❌

This is what I have for now and I'll add more as the week goes. Below will be my thoughts about the games this week that I want to highlight.

Why I like IND to get the W this weekend:

This is a WTF game (Wrong Team Favored). I'm playing the more desperate team here. IND's season is DONE if they lose this game (it may already be done but for sure will be if they start 0-4). Both teams here are well coached so I give no edge to either side. The biggest factor in this game to me is MIA can't pass the ball as they rank 29th in pass yards per game. Meanwhile, IND ranks 12th in pass yards allowed and that's after playing SEA + LAR who currently sit in the top 10 for passing yards per game. We have seen MIA already get dominated at home so I question any home field advantage they may have. We get the better QB, better defense, and more desperate team. Sign me up.

Why I like BAL this weekend:

DEN is everyone's darling right now and yes I get it Teddy two gloves continues to cover week after week. But not this week. Who has DEN beaten? Oh the winless Giants, the winless Jags, and the winless Jets! Although I think DEN does have a good defense, they are about to see the best offense by far this season in BAL who also has a unique type of offense that is hard to prepare for. BAL has been banged up with injuries but as this season goes on they will start to figure it out. I expected them to have a down day against DET after an all in emotional game against KC so I don't take too much from last week's miracle win. BAL comes in to this slug fest, will control the clock, and will dominate this game even though the score may not show it being a blowout I expect anyone who watches the game to feel like DEN never had a shot. Also, BAL is -2 in turnover differential and DEN is +3. Turnovers are random and you can't count on this to continue for DEN. Take BAL to win this game easily.

Why I like the NYG +7.5 (I know I must be crazy):

Yes I know the Giants will be without several players (Slayton and Sterling) but I think as long as they have Jones, Barkley, and Golladay they will be fine on offense. I don't think NO is good enough to be laying this many points to anyone not named JAX or NYJ. Even though NO has a couple wins their offense is terrible. Jameis hasn't thrown for more than 148 yards in any game this season. So they are depending on running the ball and good luck trying to run on the Giants defense. And the Saints are still out a couple of key linemen on both sides of the ball. I think this is going to be a close game could go either way so give me the points with the Giants and history is on our side here. Since Joe Judge took over as head coach the Giants have been 7-1 ATS as a road under dog.