I think I'm finally turning the corner on this damn cold. Don't feel like doing videos but I have picks for y'all!
Survivor Pick
Dolphins✅
Super Contest
Record: 26-24 Rank: 1766
ATL +7.5❌
CAR -3.5❌
HOU +10.5✅
IND +7✅
MIA -3✅
Official Plays
NE ML✅
ATL TT u 20.5✅
Jones o 22.5 pass completions❌
Jones o 1.5 pass TDs❌
T: NE -1 / u 53 ✅
I don't think NE should be a 7 point favorite on the road BUT I also don't like take ATL. It does make me think there is value on ATL though since they laid an egg on Sunday. I also am concerned NE is feeling themselves winning 4 in a row BUT Belichick usually keeps his teams focused on the task at hand.
We have a match up issue here. Defensively NE is #6 in yards allowed per game where ATL is ranked #25 offensively in yards per game. Translation: good defense going up against a bad offense. Judon is ranked 4th in the league with 9.5 sacks on the season and Matt Ryan has been sacked 16 times already this season. JC Jackson is also tied 2nd in the league with 5 INTs on the season.
Typically NE plays a bend don't break defense and has had some luck against ATL in the past. I could see this being an ugly game and NE ending up dominating the ground game. But I have a feeling it will be short passes and long drives which should be beneficial against this bad ATL defense. That's why I like Jones props over as NE's offense should be able to move the ball tonight.
IND ML +265✅
Talked with our guy Heavy Steps on this one and I like it. I think there's value on the Colts here with the ML, but if you want to take the +7 points I don't blame you. Will break this down later this weekend.
T: IND +13 / DAL + 8.5 ❌
MIA -3✅
The Jets are starting Joe Flacco. Why would they do this when they have two other QBs who are better than him? It's because they don't want to give those backups any momentum to outshine Wilson who is still injured, which would look bad on the organization for drafting him 2nd overall. So they are throwing out Flacco who has barely got into the offense this week. Miami is a solid team and should win this game and I see them winning this game by double digits because I don't think the Jets are trying to win this game.
Survivor Pool
IND +13✅
DAL +8.5❌
JAX +12
NO +7.5
HOU +17.5✅
MIN +7✅
LV +6