INTRO: WELCOME! It's finally that time of the year again where the NFL is back! I am trying out something new with this article format. Not only will I be posting my picks for the week but I will link articles and information that you can use to help you determine which way you would like to bet. This will evolve all season long so comment on these posts on what you like about this format and what you want improved. Also, my super contest picks will be posted at the end of this article but I will make it for supporters only.
I will edit this as the week goes on so check back throughout the week.
GAMES:
Here I will give my thoughts on some of the games. I won't get into too much detail since I will explain more on a podcast or video this week.
BUF @ LAR
This game is going to be a coin flip. Probably come down to the team who has the ball last. I usually like to fade the defending SB champs but not in week 1. Although I am low on the Rams this season, I can't fully back the Bills yet, especially since earlier in the summer I coul have gotten this at Bills +2.5 and now its Bills -2.5 and could hit -3. Bills should contenders this year but they still need to take that next step. Winning over the Rams would do that. But I think for now I can't take a side but teasing LAR to +8.5 is the best bet on the board.
BAL @ NYJ
This one is simple. Baltimore is good, Jets are bad. Typically you don't want to bet on big road favorites but last year that was not the case. For the first 9 weeks of the season road favorites of -7 or more covered at a 62% rate. I think we have that here, especially since Baltimore is not afraid to run up the score, literally. I'll look to take BAL 1H when the lines come out and for the game I like teasing BAL down to -1 as I don't see them losing this game.
NO @ ATL
Everyone loves the Saints. I get it, famous Jamis is back! I see a lot of cappers I respect taking the Saints to do well this year, even win the division. I just don't see it. Maybe I'm bias because I understand how terrible NO's salary cap was this off season and what they had to do to make it right. They lost a lot of key players that fans don't know the names of. ATL sucks too. But I do love to fade everyone else so I'm on ATL +5.5 and my favorite bet of the game is on the over 41.5.
NE @ MIA
This is my biggest bet of the week. I have heard all the chatter all summer long. Tua has never lost to the Patriots. The Patriots don't play well down in Miami. Mac Jones looks terrible in the pre season. Patriots have a defensive coordinator as their OC now! I get it. But the Patriots are winning this game. Yeah Tua has never lost but check out his stats in those games. They are terrible. Week 18 last year it was Miami's run game that won that game. That won't happen again. And here's the biggest reason why I love the Patriots in this game. Belichick is not about to lose to a rookie head coach in his first game as head coach. Not going to happen.
-Division dogs over the last 6 years are 29-91 ATS in week 1
-New head coaches win 44% of the time in their first game
CLE @ CAR
This game is a gift from the gambling Gods. The public is all over Baker getting revenge on his old team. The only problem is CLE is way more talented than CAR. It doesn't matter who is playing QB for CLE they are going to be able to run all over CAR. Meanwhile, CAR has the 24th ranked offensive line in the league. Good luck to Baker who will be running for his life all game long.
PIT @ CIN
It feels too easy to take CIN here. This is a stay away game for me. Public will be all over CIN and if this line gets to +7.5 I may take a look at PIT. But don't be suckered into what seems like the easy bet here.
-Division dogs over the last 6 years are 29-91 ATS in week 1
-Bengals are replacing 3 offensive linemen which will take awhile for them to get in sync together
-PIT has 3rd ranked pass rush in the league-
Tomlin as a dog is 45-23 ATS in his coaching career
SF @ CHI
Another big road favorite. I think it's the right call. CHI could easily be the worst team in the league this year. I do not buy into the Justin Fields hype just because he had a few good preseason games. I would lay the 7 here with SF but my bigger plays will be on teasing them down to -1 as I don't see how they lose this game even if Trey Lance plays terribly this defense should handle CHI.
PHI @ DET
Another stay away game for me. Lean towards PHI but I'm not sold on them like everyone else is. Meanwhile, everyone is riding the Hard Knocks train with the Lions. Both are bad teams in my opinion and I try to stay away from betting bad teams.
IND @ HOU
Houston is BAD. Like really bad. But I cannot bet on IND after what they have shown in the past. Too many times recently they have lost week 1 as a big road favorite in division. Maybe I'm missing out on an easy bet here but it's a stay away game for me, not even considering it as a teaser bet.
-Frank Reich as head coach for IND is 0-3-1 ATS in week 1 games
JAX @ WAS
I lean WAS -3 but this will probably be a stay away for me. Don't like betting on bad teams.
KC @ AZ
I love KC in this game and will lay the -4.5 (statistically -3.5 and -4.5 plays no difference when it comes to betting). The biggest reason I like KC in this game is I belive they are going to be like the KC we have seen in recent years who get off to a hot start. The reason being is offensive line. Yes the big uglies that no one wants to pay attention to. But I do. Last year KC started slow because they replaced 3 offensive linemen. Now they are all back with a year under their belt and there's no Chandler Jones on AZ's defensive line that they have to worry about. Also, who knows how AZ's offense is going to be with all the drama this offseason. I'll lay the points with KC and tease the under to 59.5.
LV @ LAC
This is going to be one of the better games of the day. A lot of drama in LV in the offseason but they have made big improvements. Herbert seems to be growing into one of the better QBs in the league. Could this be his year? I lean towards LAC -3 but also think you can't go wrong teasing either team as this game is going to be a high scoring shoot out.
NYG @ TEN
Call me crazy but I'm actually higher on the Giants this year than most. Not saying they're going to have a great record but that division has shown it can all be garbage and just a .500 record could win you the division in the end. TEN has lost a lot of players and we do not know how they will make those adjustments this season. It's early, but I would lean to taking the points with NYG.
-Road dogs who did not make the playoffs the year prior are 73-46-4 (61%) ATS in week 1
TB @ DAL
I know everyone wants to remember last year's opening game between these two teams and what a shootout it was. But this year I believe will be different. Many are concerned over TB, specifically Tom Brady and what's going on in his personal life. I'm not. I think TB is going to be just fine as long as they stay healthy. I think their defense is going to be vastly improved from last year in the secondary and it will look more like the defense from 2 years ago when they won the SB. DAL on the other hand has lost several key players on top of losing two starting linemen recently to injuries, including the starting left tackle. That's not good news for Dak. I think TB wins this game easily by playing good defense and mangaging the clock on offense through the run game.
DEN @ SEA
This game feels like a trap. I don't think SEA is going to be good at all this season, but for some reason I have a feeling that this will be one of those weird games where DEN is clearly the better team but somehow SEA finds a way to win. Therefore if I were to pick a side I can only look at SEA +6.5 and I might sprinkle a little on the ML. I also will be tying some teasers to SEA bringing them to +12.5 to then turn around come MNF and bet Broncos ML for a good chance to middle if any of those teasers are still alive.
STRAIGHT PLAYS:
LAR +2.5 ❌
BUF/LAR 1H u 26.5 💰
NE +3 ❌
NE/MIA under 46 💰
NE ML +138 ❌
CLE ML +120 💰
CLE +2 💰
PIT +6.5 💰
PIT ML +230 💰
CHI TT u 16.5 ❌
ATL +5.5 💰
NO/ATL over 41.5 💰
BAL ML -290 💰
BAL 1H -4 💰
SF -7 ❌
KC -4 💰
NYG +5.5 💰
NYG ML +215 💰
TB -1.5 💰
TEASERS:
Teasers are what I'm best at. I honestly should just only bet them but I'm a degenerate and can't help my self. Those of you wondering what a teaser is let me explain. A teaser is a parlay where you get to add 6 points to a line but have to make at least 2 picks for it to qualify.
Example: If you like NE and CLE in week 1 this year you can tease their lines together to make it one bet. Instead of NE +3 you will get NE +9 and instead of CLE +2 you will get CLE +8.
Therefore, your bet is NE +9 / CLE +8.
Pretty cool right? The only catch is both picks have to cover for you to win your bet so NE will have to cover 9 and CLE will have to cover 8. Either of those fail then you lose.
Something you will notice about me is I like to make 3 leg teasers. Why? They pay +150 which means we only need to hit 40% of them to be profitable. But that's not all. I also like to make the last leg have a different kickoff time than the first two. That way if I hit the first 2 leg I have time to either place another bet or wait to live bet a situation to hedge and hit both bets. I'll explain more in a video this week.
LAR +8.5 / BUF-LAR under 59.5 -120 ❌
BUF-LAR under 59.5 / PHI-DET u 54.5 / NYG +11.5 +150
LAR +8.5 / BAL -1 / SF -1 +150 ❌
BAL -1 / CLE +8 / NE +9 +150
LAR +8.5 / BAL -1 / NE +9 / NE-MIA u 52 / CLE +8 / SF -1 +600 ❌
BAL -1 / NE +9 / KC-AZ u 59.5 +150
NO-ATL o 36.5 / CIN -0.5 / KC-AZ u 59.5 +150
CLE +8.5 / NE +9 -120
LAR +10 / LAR-BUF o 45 / KC +3.5 +125 (7.5 point teaser) ❌
PARLAYS:
BAL / NE / CLE / SF ML +847
ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:
A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.
https://pregame.com/game-center
Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!
https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/
Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.
https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/
Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!
https://sportspicks.locals.com/
SUPER CONTEST PICKS:
