SUPER BOWL BETTING CARD

Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!

I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them. 

My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.

WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK

STRAIGHT BETS

• Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
• 1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
  • This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
• 1Q UNDER 9.5
• GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
• EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
• CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
• 1Q EXACT SCORE:
  • KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
  • KC 3 PHI 3 +2500

PARLAYS

• +2600
  • MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
  • BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
  • WORTHY TD
  • SMITH TD
• PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
• MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
  
  • If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.

PROPS

• COIN TOSS: HEADS -101
• EAGLES ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY: YES +170
• KICK TO DONK OFF UPRIGHT: YES +550

LONGSHOTS

• BUTKER MVP +10000
• TRIPLE CROWN: MAHOMES / WORTHY / HURTS +5000

NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND STATS, TRENDS, BEST BETS!

We are down to 8! Let's dive into each of these games breaking down the stats and trends. Then I'll give you my thoughts and best bets! Check back in throughout the week for my updated picks because I'm going to try and get the info out to you ASAP and as I place bets I will update this article with my picks.

GENERAL PREVIEW

• Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970.
• The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1. The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
• Lions/Commanders total is 55.5. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and ChiefS, Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
• Both Saturday games have bIG spreads. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) have won 18 consecutive playoff games outright dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs; the last loss came with the Ravens against the Titans. That 18-game streak is the longest streak at any point in the Super Bowl era.
• If Texans-Chiefs closes under 43.5, it would be the lowest over/under for any playoff game with Patrick Mahomes.
• Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%). When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET).
• Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
• Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.
• We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round. On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.
• Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser. Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
• In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
• In his coaching career, Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

Texans at Chiefs (-9) | Total: 41.5

• The over/under in Chiefs/Texans is 41.5. Of Mahomes’ 18 career playoff games, this would be his lowest total, his previous low was 43.5 against the Dolphins last year. Of his 69 career home starts, this would be his 2nd-lowest total ever behind Christmas of last year against the Raiders at 40.5, a game KC lost.

• Travis Kelce is 343 receiving yards away from breaking Jerry Rice's all time playoff record. He is also 3 TDs away from tying Jerry's all time playoff TD record.
• Kelce has 5+ receptions in 14 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak by any player since the merger.
• Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games is 28-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
• Mahomes is 31-7 SU, 19-18-1 ATS playing on extended rest during the season and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 37-8 SU and 24-20-1 ATS on extended rest.
• If you focus on extreme prep/rest, which would be 13+ days, Mahomes is 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS, including those Week 1 games.
• On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 28-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
• Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round of the playoffs (8-0)
• Mahomes is 22-32-3 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career, including 0-5-1 ATS this season. In those six games this year as a 7+ pt favorite, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU.
• The Texans' defense has been a great unit this year and that was no different last week vs. the Chargers. Houston is 10th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs, 10th vs. #3 WRs, and they are 5th vs. TEs.
• The Houston Texans — a team playing in a dome — will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30-degree weather for the playoffs 9 times. Those teams are 2-7 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
• C.J. Stroud has made 35 career starts in the NFL. He’s 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 13-3 in a 6-point teaser.
• Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 10-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS when listed as an underdog.

COMMANDERS AT LIONS (-9.5) | TOTAL: 55

• The over/under will probably be one of the bigger stories in betting this week. It opened at 54.5 and is up to 55.5/56 in the market.The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

  We’ve seen 17 over/under’s in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more, they are 9-8 to the over all-time, but just 4-7 to the over since 2013-14, going under the total by 7.1 PPG. If you break it down by indoors vs. outdoors, 5-2 to the over indoors and 6-1 to the under outdoors.

• In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 19-5 (79%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
• Commanders trailed the Bucs entering the 4th quarter last week and even had a last-minute drive while tied to win it. Teams to win after trailing entering the 4th quarter in a playoff game are just 11-25 SU since 2001.

• Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season, including 6-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 10-0 SU as favorites in primetime, winning by over 10 PPG, and in games starting at 4p ET or later, they are 15-1 SU under Campbell, with their one loss coming to the Bills this season.

• Lions are coming off the best 3-year stretch (2022-24, 36-14-1 ATS) and the best 4-year stretch (2021-24, 47-20-1 ATS) in the Super Bowl era.
• Lions went 8-0 SU on the road this season, both their losses coming at home to the Bills and Buccaneers.
• As a duo, Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when facing teams scoring 24 PPG or more on the season – Detroit’s two ATS losses have come to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
• Washington played the perfect game last week, with zero punts. Teams with 2 punts or less in their last playoff game, who are 6+ pt dogs the next week are 0-8 SU since 2002.
• Commanders are in a tough spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 45-72 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 5-13 SU the last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-60 SU (26%), including 1-12 SU in the last 13 games in this spot.

RAMS AT EAGLES (-6) | TOTAL: 44

• Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 35-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 18-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
• In Hurts’ career, he is 27-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 15-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU, and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
• The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 24-12 in those quarters in the second half.
• It is expected to be around 35 degrees with some rain or snow and light wind in the forecast. Stafford has started just one game in 40-degree or colder temperatures outdoors over the last three years – earlier this season at the Jets. Rams scored 19 pts, and won 19-9 in New York.
• We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
• In franchise history, the Eagles have never lost at home in the Divisional Round. They are 6-0 SU, covering the spread in 5 of those games.
• Eagles are streaking entering this NFC Divisional Round. They’ve won three in a row both SU and ATS, the only team from the Wild Card round, on normal rest or less, playing this week. Teams on such a streak in the playoffs last decade are just 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS, with the under 16-6 in those games.
• Not just the streak, Philly’s defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 13 pts or less in three straight games entering this playoff game. Last 20 years, we’ve seen just eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight. Those teams went 2-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their playoff game. The last three teams scored a total of 10 combined pts in their games (‘21 BAL, ‘16 HOU, ‘15 IND).
• In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
• In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
• Rams started the season 1-4 SU and are now a win away from the NFC Championship game. Rams are the 17th team to start 1-4 SU or worse and make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, and none made it to the Super Bowl.
• In his coaching career, he’s 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

RAVENS AT BILLS (+1) | TOTAL: 51.5

• This is the 5th time Lamar Jackson has faced Josh Allen. Baltimore is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The spread has only closed below 3 in one of their games, the 2020-21 playoff game won by the Bills in Buffalo.
• As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 30-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
• If Lamar closes as an underdog, he is 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in that role, including 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As a dog, Lamar is covering the spread by 7.4 PPG.
• Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
• Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season. Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win percentage of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.

• Three of the four matchups this week are rematches of games already played this season: Chiefs/Texans, Eagles/Rams, Bills/Ravens. Last decade in the playoffs, teams who played rematches in the same season, the team who won the previous game is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS in the rematch. For Baltimore, teams to win by 20+ pts in that first game are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last decade.

• Ravens downed the Steelers last week. The week after facing the Steelers, Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS over the last two seasons, including 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after facing Pittsburgh.
• The Ravens are 27-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive now just twice – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest, and last week vs. Steelers.
• Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
• Josh Allen faces a much-improved Ravens defense. Ravens have allowed only 20.8 PPG this season and allowed just 14 points in the Wild Card Round. Allen vs. teams allowing less than 21 PPG is 27-12-1 ATS (69%).
• When opponents score 21 pts or more against the Bills, Buffalo is just 4-22 ATS since 2022, which is the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. During that same span, the Ravens are 9-12-2 ATS in that spot, the 3rd-best ATS mark in the NFL.
• The Bills are an NFL-best 14-4 to the over on their team total this season. This includes going 8-1 to the over at home.

NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

Here's some stats for the games this weekend and my bets I've made.

WILDCARD WEEKEND TREND

• In the Wildcard era, teams that have a Strength of Schedule (SOS) that is 10 slots higher than their opponent are 32-12 ATS. This applies to HOU and GB this weekend.
• FADE TEAM OFF L vs TEAM OFF W
  • Matches: PIT, GB, BUF
  • Record since 2003: 26-42-1
• BIG FAV, NO TURNOVERS LAST 2 GAMES, FADE
  • Matches: BAL, BUF
  • Record: 49-75
• BET ON WILDCARD TEAMS WITH EXPERIENCE VS THOSE WITHOUT
  • Matches: HOU, BUF TB, LAR
  • 30-15-1
• BET OVER IN PLAYOFFS GAMES PLAYED INDOORS
  • Matches: LAC/HOU, MIN/LAR
  • Record since 2003: 35-18

CHARGERS AT TEXANS

• Value on the Texans catching points at home
  • The average fan and sports bettor will remember the Texans as the team that only scored 2 points against the Ravens on Christmas.
  • Strength of Schedule Trend: The Texans SOS was 14 while the Chargers was 29 this season.
• Chargers run a split safety defense at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Stroud against this defense this season has 8 TDs and 9 INTs.
• Road favorites of 3 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs has happened 6 times since 2012, the under is 0-6, covering by 10 ppg.
• Texans this season were 6-1-1 to the under in games played against winning teams
• Stroud was the second most sacked QB this season only behind Caleb Williams. Both QBs hung onto the ball longer than other QBs.
• Herbert in his career is 14-9 ATS as a road favorite, including 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in that spot.
• C.J. Stroud has made 34 career starts in the NFL. He’s 9-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 12-3 in a 6-pt teaser.
• The one issue for Stroud could be the Chargers defense. Stroud has started four games vs. a defense allowing under 18 PPG, where L.A. sits as the best PPG defense in the NFL, and Houston has averaged just 14 PPG in those matchups.
• Texans are 13-4 against the first half spread this season – DeMeco Ryans is 25-11 1H ATS, including 25-9 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB.
• Under DeMeco Ryans, Texans have played 5 games on short rest, they are 1-4 SU/ATS, going 0-4 SU/ATS this season in that spot. That is the most SU losses without a win for head coach this year.
• On the other side, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers are 3-0 SU/ATS this year on short rest.

• Chargers will be playing their third consecutive game on the road this week going from New England to Las Vegas to now Houston. Since 2003, teams who are on the third game or later of any road trip are 45-71 SU (39%). These teams are 5-12 SU over the last three seasons. When this game is played in the playoffs, that team is 11-27 SU (29%), .500 SU or worse in each of the last 19 seasons.

BETS

• Under 41.5
• Tease the under to 48
• Mixon TD -125, Mixon 2+ TDs +475
• Mixon over 17.5 rush attempts -125
• Mixon over 20.5 rec yards -110
• Dobbins TD +120, Dobbins 2+ TDs +800
• Stroud under 233.5 pass yards -115
• Stroud under 13.5 rush yards -115

STEELERS AT RAVENS

• Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers has been ruled OUT for this game.
• Steelers are on a 4 game losing streak heading into the playoffs.
• Total is set at 43.5 and there's massive trends to the over.
  • When division opponents meet in the playoffs and the home team (Ravens) won the previous matchup, 12-5 to the over going over by 7 ppg.
  • First round of the playoffs and the teams have played in the last 6 weeks, the total in this game has gone up from the prior game: 11-1 to the over by 15 ppg scoring average 64 points.
• With Flowers being out I predict Baltimore will run more 2 TE sets. Steelers defense against 2 TE sets ranks #24 in EPA this season. (not good)
• Since week 15 the Steelers have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the league. This is when TJ Watt got hurt. Since Watt has come back, he has had 0 sacks and played some of the worst games of his career. Clearly Watt is not 100% and this defense doesn't play the same with him not at his best.
• As an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS in franchise history. Under Tomlin, they are 6-1 ATS as a ‘dog of more than 3 pts vs. Ravens.
• Under Mike Tomlin, Steelers are just 3-14 SU and 7-9-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 pts or more. As a dog of 8 pts or more, Tomlin is just 1-8 SU with the Steelers, his only win coming in 2022 vs. Bucs.
• Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 5-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh.
• Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
• Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs, losing 17-3 on the road in Buffalo and 28-12 at home to the Titans.
• Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 29-11-3 ATS (73%). The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS since 2015. Overall, the underdog is 25-9-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, but just 1-2 ATS in the postseason.
• This season, the Ravens ended with 132 penalties as a team, T-2nd most in the NFL.
• Historically, it has been difficult for Baltimore to hold a lead against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, the Ravens are 2-7 SU against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game.
• Steelers are 6-11 1H ATS this year and 11-24 1H ATS over the last two seasons, the worst mark for any team in the NFL. Over the last 4 seasons, Pittsburgh is 25-45 1H ATS, also worst mark across the league.
• BETS
  
  • OVER 43.5
  • BAL 1H -6
  • TOTAL FGS UNDER 3.5 -135
  • Henry 1st TD +295, 1 TD -210, 2+ TDs +260
  • Likely TD +275, 2+ TDs +2500
  • Harris TD +205
  • Pickens TD +205
  • Lamar under 217.5 pass yards -115
  • Wilson over 207.5 pass yards -110
  • Likely 40+ rec yards +145, 50+ yards +250, 60+ yards +400
  • Likely 3+ catches -143, 4+ +129, 5+ +224

BRONCOS AT BILLS

• Broncos have the 4th highest blitz rate in the league
• Josh Allen is really good against the blitz with 16 TDs and 1 INT this season.
• Josh Allen in the playoffs for his career gains 6.8 yards per rush and averages 56 yards per game
• Josh Allen's longest rush prop is set at 13.5 yards. He has gone over this in 7 out of 10 playoff games he has played in. BUT he usually only does this against GOOD teams meaning close games and not when the Bills have a big lead.
• In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 12-5 ATS this year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco – with Flacco the only QB to cover 12+ games with Bo.
• Overall rookie QBs are 5-12 SU in the playoffs since 2010, but recently they haven’t performed terribly, going 2-2 SU with C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy in recent years.

• One thing Bo has done really well this year, which will be helpful if Denver is able to take a lead, is keep control of the ball. Nix has 14 TD passes and just 1 INT when having the lead this year, the most TD passes with 1 INT or less in the NFL in that spot. When trailing this year, Bo has 10 pass TDs but 6 INT and sees his QB rating drop by 20+ points.

• Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road or a neutral site, he is 83-61-3 ATS (58%), including 33-17-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL. On the road, when his opponent is averaging 24+ PPG, Payton is 29-14 ATS in his career.

• In his coaching career, Payton is 7-10 ATS in the playoffs. He is 3-9 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
• The Bills defense has been an issue lately. Since Week 9, they are 30th in success rate, their pass defense is 30th in EPA per dropback and dead last, 32nd in dropback success rate.
• At home as a favorite of over a TD (-7.5 or more), Josh Allen is 13-9-2 ATS in his career. Allen is 2-6-1 ATS away from home as that big of a favorite.
• As a favorite of 7.5 or more at home, Allen is 23-1 SU in his career – with his only loss coming to the Broncos and Russell Wilson last season.

BETS

• Waiting until 1 hour before kickoff for this but Allen under rush yards. It currently is at 42.5 and right now I would probably pass BUT I believe this line will go up when the public comes in today and tomorrow to bet him over. If it hits 45 or more that's a play for me.
• Over 47.5
• Under 3.5 FGs made -155
• James Cook over 1.5 receptions -135
• Bo Nix 25+ rush yards -165
• Nix 2+ Passing TDs +130
• Allen INT YES +115

PACKERS AT EAGLES

• Concerns over Jordan Love and his ability to grip the football in last week's injury. Packers did not allow media to see him throw in practice.
• Concers over Jalen Hurts and his progress through the concussion protocol. He is expected to play but how will that affect him for this game? AJ Brown also sat out practice on Thursday but is expected to play.
• Rematch from their week 1 matchup in Brazil where the Eagles won 34-29.
• Overall, Jalen Hurts has faced Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers.
• Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts in the three games.
• LaFleur is 27-12 SU and 25-14 ATS when facing an opponent after losing to them in his previous matchup.

• When he’s listed as a road underdog in a revenge spot, he is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS, covering the spread in 7 consecutive games.

• As an underdog in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, LaFleur is 2-0 ATS covering on the road against the 49ers and Cowboys.
• Against teams with the same SU record or worse, the Packers are 10-1 SU this season after losing to the Bears last week. Against teams with a better record than GB, they are 1-4 SU, just beating the Texans back in October.
• Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 34-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 16-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 17-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
• In Hurts’ career, he is 26-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 14-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
• We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
• Packers have lost two consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this matchup. Teams to do that entering a playoff game are 12-6-1 ATS since 2000.

BETS

• Under 45.5
• Barkley TD -170, 2+ TDs +330
• Hurts under 213.5 pass yards -110
• Hurts under 1.5 pass TDs -140
• Brown under 81.5 rec yards
• Jacobs over 70.5 rush yards

COMMANDERS AT BUCS

• Another rematch from week 1 where the Bucs, at home, won 37-20. To note, this was Jayden Daniels first career start along with Dan Quinn's first game as head coach of the Commanders.
• The Commanders have not won a playoff game in 19 years, the 3rd-longest active drought behind the Dolphins and Raiders. The last time they did? They were on the road, in the opening round, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
• Rookies have lost seven straight road playoff games, with the last winner coming in 2012-13 from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Overall, rookie QBs are 5-14 SU on the road in the playoffs since 1990.
• Daniels has started three night games this season. His one loss came against the Eagles, where Washington was playing on short rest. On normal rest or longer, he went 2-0 SU/ATS in night games, with Washington’s offense scoring 68 total pts.
• Since the Bucs win in the playoffs last year against the Eagles, the Bucs have played four night games this season and they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.
• Overall, Mayfield is 1-9 SU in his last ten night games, both regular season and playoffs, with his line win coming in the postseason against that Eagles team. Baker’s 1-9 SU mark is 2nd-worst of 79 QBs ahead of just Daniel Jones, who is 1-11 SU.

• Bucs had to overcome a 10-pt deficit against the Saints last week to make the playoffs. Teams in playoffs on normal rest or shorter, coming off a double-digit comeback in their previous game are 7-11 SU since 2006, including 4-10 SU when they are off 60+ plays on offense in their previous game.

• Washington’s 6-11 ATS mark in the 4Q is tied for the 3rd-worst record in the NFL.
• The over is 12-5 when Mayfield has started the game this season, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just Lamar Jackson at 13-4. This year, games with Jayden Daniels as a QB are also 11-6 to the over.

• This over/under is the biggest of Wild Card weekend, with it sitting around 50. Since 2003, playoff totals of 50+ are 28-25-2 to the under, but if you split them up by indoor and outdoor games, they are 11-7 to the over indoors and 21-14-2 to the under outdoors.

• The Buccaneers have played well in the first quarter this year. Their 11 scores on 1st drives are tied for most in the NFL, and their 8 TDs are also tied for most.
• That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 25, T-lowest). Bucs are 10-6-1 against 1st quarter spread this year.

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VIKINGS AT RAMS

• Same exact scenario from earlier in the season. Vikings lost to the Lions then had to go down to LA to play the Rams where LA won 30-20.
• This game has been moved to AZ due to the fires in LA. A neutral site game.
• In their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford threw 4 TD and 1 INT, all of which came without being blitzed, which the Vikings do most of any team in the NFL. On that day, Stafford had 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 sacks in a clean pocket, something Minnesota has to avoid this week.
• This year, Stafford has 8 TD and 2 INT when being blitzed, 12 TDs and 6 INT without the blitz and his pocket pressure is even wider, 2 TD and 6 INT while being pressured and 18 TD and just 2 INT in a clean pocket.

• The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they finished the year 14-3. They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total and then they joined the 2004 Chargers and Steelers as the only teams to go 7.5 games above their win total since realignment in 2002.

• Minnesota is the 5th team to eclipse their win total by 6.5+ games since 2002, none of the four teams won the Super Bowl, one made it there (2015 Panthers), two lost in the Wild Card round.
• Getting the loss out of the way. Over the last 20 years, four teams have had a 7+ game SU win streak snapped right before a playoff game – as the Vikings did on SNF against the Lions last week. Those four teams went 4-0 SU after their streak got snapped.
• One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 26-9 SU (74%) in one-score games under O’Connell. In 2024, the Vikings are 9-1 SU in those close games.
• The Lions beat the Vikings last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.8 PPG and 18-31 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
• Since 2003, teams to average 25+ PPG on the season, coming off a 14-pt game or less the week before the Wild Card round are just 2-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 PPG with the Eagles and Dolphins in this spot last year, who scored 16 combined pts between the two teams.
• In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 3-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
• Sean McVay is 21-19-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 8-4 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-13-2 ATS.

• This season, Stafford has already won four games outright as an underdog, his most since 2016 and 2nd-most of his career. Stafford has won two straight games outright as an underdog entering this matchup, the only other time in his career he’s won three straight games outright as an underdog in the same season is in 2022, with the 3rd consecutive game being against the Bucs in the playoffs. Between 2022 and 2023, Stafford was 1-10 SU as an underdog

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