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NFL Week 2 Report Card

Up 18 units after week 1

September 14, 2022

INTRO: I had a crazy hot start to the year. So much so I ended up #1 over on the Action Network which was pretty cool to see. The hardest part about betting the NFL is winning the week after you had a profitable week. It's too easy to get over confident and hold grudges on the few picks you lost instead of making the proper adjustments. That's why this community is awesome because we can help each other stay on track and follow our systems. Let's have another profitable week and PLEASE share this report card everywhere or with someone who you think would enjoyt. Afterall, it's free.

I am slowly building this ASAP so check back throughout the week as I update parts of this article especially my picks.

NFL WEEK 2 TRENDS:

-Week 2 historically sees more unders than overs hit

-0-1 teams vs 1-0 teams are 52% straight up to win since 2000 (probably due to the 0-1 team having urgency)

-Teams who are 0-1 facing a team that is 1-0 AND are unerdogs in the game WIN the game outright 62% of the time since 2010. This appleis to NYJ, CAR, and TEN this week.

-Since 2019, teams playing consecuative road games in Week 2 are 8-0 against the spread. This applies to NE, IND, and TB this week.

SURVIVOR PICK

If you're still alive in your survivor pick congrats! This was a great year to win week 1 as most pools had about 2/3rds of their contestants gone! Here's my pick for the week (as of now). I don't try and map out the year or worry about not having someone for later in the season because I've learned it doesn't work in your favor to plan on using a team later on. I take who I think has the best chance that week of winning.

My pick: Bengals (changed this because I don't see where I would like the Bengals better again this season)

PICK'EM CONTEST PLAYS:

Anyone who is in a pick'em contest (like myself) these picks are for you. Doesn't mean I'm betting these teams just that here's what I'm playing this week for my pools.

KC💰

BAL

CLE

WAS

IND

NYG

LAR

CIN

DEN

TEN

MIN

GAMES (my thoughts)

LAC @ KC

Huge game here early on in the season, especially for their division. Both teams are 1-0 and a win here will give either team an edge going forward. Chiefs are favored and I think that’s the right call being that they are home and it’s a short week. Line is set at KC -3.5 and that feels right to me. What I’m more looking towards is the total. Both are high powered offenses but 54.5 seems a little high to me. If you were to tease this game only the value is taking LAC to +9.5 or better and to the under. But I would try and tie the under 60.5 to other plays on Sunday. One thing is certain and that’s this will be a good game. I snagged KC at -3.5 and I'm gald I did because it has moved to -4.5 and I could see this line getting to 6 by kickoff. I like the under in this game as well. Chiefs will be without their starting kicker which may favor the over if they decide to go for it in situation they normally wouldn't, but there's not many times Andy Reid wouldn't go for it on 4th down to begin with so I'm not worried.

-In the Wild Card era (since 1990), totals of 54.5 or higher on TNF are 7-0 to the under, going under the total by 13.8 PPG

PLAYER PROPS FOR THIS GAME

-Mahomes over 19 rush yards

Normally I would not play this high of a total for a QB rush yards even for one who is a good runner, but I think we have an edge here. Last year Mahomes ran for 45 yards and 32 yards in the games against LAC. This indicates that LAC plays back more in a zone to cover his great WRs and gives opportunities for Mahomes to take off and run, which we know he is capable of. With KC's offenseive line being better this season it also gives me confidence that he will have enough time to make his reads and have the lanes to take off and run if necessary.

-CEH under 47.5 rush yards

Last year he rushed for 32 yards and 100 yards. So this number feels like they are splitting the difference a little. Now he's sharing the workload with other backs. Last week he only carried the ball 7 times as they looked to use him in more of a passing situation. Pacheco was the leading carrier for KC with 12 carries. I think we have an edge here given how LAC plays defense that Mahomes will look to use CEH in the passing game and that the Chiefs won't look to run the ball much in this game.

-Kelce over 79.5 rec yards and Kelce over 7 receptions

Boy oh boy does this feel square? YES! And you know I hate betting on super stars. But we have a huge edge here. Kelce caught 10 passes for 191 and 7 catches for 104 yards in the games against LAC last season. We know Kelce is a favorite target for Mahomes so he will get the volume. But what the results of last season tells me is there's a clear matchup issue with the Chiefs offense vs the Chargers defense that is favorable to TE's. And from what I saw last week it doesn't look like much has changed. So I'm riding with the public on this one and expect Kelce to come out and dominate at home against a team he knows well and has had recent success against.

IND @ JAX

As expected, IND shit the bed week 1 playing a divisional opponent on the road. I stayed away from that game but all signs pointed to taking HOU. Now that they got that out of the way I expect IND to turn it up in this game. Season on the line and JAX is awful. Don’t get me wrong, JAX played a great second half but IND has way more talent and should win this game with ease. I would lay the -4 now with IND because the public is going to come in and raise this to -6. If IND loses this game they can kiss their season goodbye.

MIA @ BAL

This game is very interesting to me. I have to resist my natural bias against MIA because I was completely wrong on them last week so naturally I want to double down against them this week. But I recognize my bias. This game comes down to if BAL’s defense can handle MIA’s speed on offense. BAL’s offense should be able to run on MIA. Like all BAL games with Lamar, if they get a lead it’s over they will be able to control clock and win. Therefore it comes down to BAL’s defense. I will have more on this game later in the week.

NYJ @ CLE

BAL had great success running the ball on NYJ and I expect CLE to be able to do the same. CLE’s defense should get pressure on Flacco and make it a long day. What makes me nervous is the trend listed above about 0-1 teams facing 1-0 teams as underdogs. All signs point to CLE winning this game which should happen. But this is the NFL and you make more money betting against what everyone else is on therefore I am likely to take the points with the Jets this week. Does it make any sense, NO, but will it probably be the right call, YES. More to come later.

TB @ NO

Call me biased all you want but I give it to you straight. Everything I saw from TB last week makes me love them this week. Defense looked great. Brady and the offense looked dialed in they just need to figure it out on the offensive line. I know everyone is going to say TB struggles in NO but this is not the same NO team of the past. As I have said before, I am low on NO this season and we saw why this week. They have lost too many pieces due to poor salary cap management. Give me the GOAT this week. Current line opened TB -3 and if you like it I would bet it now as this line should go up as the public take TB.

UPDATE: Some may be worried because the line is going towards TB -2.5 and I think I know why. A lot of sharp bettors over the summer played NO +2.5 or +3. But that line didn't move at all. Now that the week is finally here the books open TB -3 but they have since realized they have way too much $$ on NO +3 that they need to take some more TB $$ so they lower the line to TB -2.5 for now. Remember, these books don't care about the outcome. They just want to set a line where they can get as close to 50/50 action for each side because that's where they make their profit. I still expect this line to get to TB -3.5 come Sunday.

NE @ PIT

This is the hardsest game for me this week. I am a NE fan as y'all know but I put my bias aside. Am I upset we lost and looked terrible to MIA, absoloutly. But the defense actually looked really good in that game, especially with the speed advantage MIA had. Then there's PIT. Great defense. Watt is out. Emotional divisional win against CIN. Still has terrible QB play. So it comes down to which offense is going to get the edge on the other defense. One team coming off an emotional divsional win, the other a loss. Also have to add in the factor of Belichick coming off a loss and knowing going 0-2 to start the season means your season is likely done. Therefore I lean NE but don't love it. More coming later this week. I would look towards the under in this game, but it opened 43 and has crashed to 40. So I could only now look to teasing the under in this game just to get the value back.

CAR @ NYG

I bet this earlier in the summer based off of one thing only. Win or lose week 1, CAR was going to have an emotional game againt CLE beacuse of Baker. And with them losing I like NYG at home even more. If CAR loses this game, they're going to start the season 0-7 and who knows what happens after that. Giants were able to get the running game going in week 1 and that will be key in their home opener this week against CAR.

WAS @ DET

Say what you want about DET but Dan Campbell gets his teams motivated. I have a hard time fading DET when they are a dog early in the season. Luckily, they are not a dog in this game yet. So that has me leaning towards WAS. Wentz gets a lot of hate from people and I understand why, I just don't think it's because of a lack of talent it's more because he doesn't seem to get along with his teammates. Wentz is the better QB in this game and I think WAS has the better offense with those good young WRs. The public will be all over DET as they are a fan favorite after hard knocks. I lean towards WAS and may pull the trigger on them eventually, but might look towards some props instead.

SEA @ SF

This game is simple to me. SF season is on the line and SEA is riding high off a big MNF win. SF is going to blow out SEA and I am leaning towards laying the points with SF. I know Lance hasn't looked good but I'm banking on Shanahan having a game plan set that will make it easy for him to succeed. Also, he gets Kittle back and a TE is always a favorite of a young QB. Meanwhile, Seattle didn't score at all in the second half of last game. Let's be honest, although we were on the ML with them agianst DEN they got extremely lucky to win that game. That is hard to repeat week to week. I'm looking for a book that has who will score the lowest points this week because SEA is my bet as I think they may even get shutout this game.

ATL @ LAR

Classic Falcons blowing a 4th Q lead, but they did cover the game. Everyone is on the Rams to win this game and blow the Falcons out. I'm just not confident the Rams terrible start was just a fluke or because the Bills are that good because to me it can be serious issues with their offensive line. The Falcons are always the "sharp" guys in Vegas darling team and have been profitable over the years. At +10.5 makes me feel like ATL is the right side, but for now I have no play and can only look to teasing ATL up.

AZ @ LV

I think AZ is the biggest fraud team out there and their loss last week to the Cheifs was no fluke. To me, they are going to be bad this season. Everyone wants to hop on them because they usually start the season on fire. But there was too much drama this offseason that this team is not in sync and Murray is set to have a bad year. Most don't agree with me on this but that's why it's gambling and I think there's money to be made fading AZ. Meanwhile, LV has a lot of talent. And in this game I think they are the more talented team so with the season on the line (both teams are 0-1) I will take the better talent and take LV.

TEX @ DEN

Let's not overreact to DEN losing to SEA. They were the better team in that game. They had too many dumb penalties on defense and those two fumbles inside the 5 were a fluke. Look for a big bounce back not just from Russel Wilson in a home opener, but from that defense to make some plays. Double digit points is never fun to lay but this is a spot we may need to look to do so and DEN will be a teaser leg for me.

BEN @ DAL

This game is simple to me. The public is overreacting to DAL's poor performance last week and Dak being out. I get it, no one wants to bet against Burrow and the Bengals after a loss. But DAL is home for this game and if you can get them +7 or better I think you have huge value in this game.

CHI @ GB

Are we having deja vu with the Packers this season? Last year they got blown out by the Saints only top turn around and win 13 straight thereafter. We know Rodgers is calm, cool, and collected in these spots and will show up. But does he have enough around him? I'm not a fan at all of CHI being on record saying they could have the worst record this season, but a lot of people like their weapons. I simply haven't seen it yet. But the unknowns from GB makes me nervous to lay the double digit points this week. Therefore this game will probably be a stay away from me, but here's some stats for you to determine if it's a game you want to bet.

-Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 straight up and 21-7 against the spread vs. the Bears

-Rodgers has won and coverd his last 6 meetings against Chicago

-He is 8-1 straight up and 9-0 ATS vs the Bears after a loss

TEN @ BUF

There's times when betting the NFL you have to take the pick that nobody wants to make. This will seperate you from the rest of the bettors out there and be on the side of Vegas. Everyone loves the Bills right now. They blew out the defending Super Bowl champs on their home field opening night. They are the current Super Bowl favorites. So why fade them? Simple. Because no one wants to so that's why we should. We are getting double digits with TEN here coming off an embarrasing loss. Remember, TEN was the #1 seed last year in the AFC. You don't get the #1 seed by accident. You do it by having good coaching. So I expect TEN to be coached up well for this game and to win the game. They have had the Bill's number too in the past. Don't be shocked if TEN wins this game, but also it's highly likely they cover the spread.

MIN @ PHI

This game is a coin flip to me but I lean towards MIN with the points. The public is all over PHI and I get it. But I think MIN offensively is very impressive and are going to give that PHI defense, who let DET score 35 on them, have a tough day. I'll have more on this later in the week as it's one of the MNF games, but right now I'm leaning towards MIN.

OFFICIAL PICKS

NYG -1 (I bet this earlier in the summer, but like it up to -2.5)

LAC/KC under 54.5 💰

LAC/KC 1H UNDER 27.5 💰

KC -3.5 ❌

TB -2.5

TB ML -140

TB 1H -0.5 -120

NO TT U 20.5

IND -4

IND ML -180

IND 1H -2.5

TEN +10

TEN ML +360

NYJ +6

NYJ ML +215

WSH/DET under 48.5

WSH/DET 1H under 24.5

WSH 1H +0.5 -120

WSH ML +106

NE -2

NE 1H -0.5 +100

LAR 1H -7

SF -8.5

LV -5.5

HOU +10

HOU ML +385

MIA TT U 20.5

BAL ML -185

BAL 1H -2.5

SEA TT U 17

PLAYER PROPS

Mahomes over 19 rush yards❌

CEH under 47.5 rush yards❌

Kelce over 79.5 rec yards❌

Kelce over 7 rec❌

Tyreek Hill under 68.6 rec yards

Tyreek Hill under 5.5 receptions +110

Baker Mayfield over 0.5 INTs -120

DAveon Pierce over 42.5 rush yards

Chubb under 80.5 rush yards

Brady over 1.5 TDs -180

Matt Ryan over 1.5 TDs -105

Wentz over 1.5 TDs -110

Stafford over 1.5 TDs -170

Burrow over 1.5 TDs -170

TEASERS

LAC +10 / LAC-KC u 61 -120💰

KC-LAC u 60 / WAS +7 / TB +3.5 +155

KC-LAC u 61 / KC +3 / DET-WSH u 55.5 +135

DET-WSH o 42.5 / TB +3.5 / SF -2.5 +155

LAC +10 / NYJ +12.5 / TB +3.5 +155

KC +2 / WAS +7 / ATL +16.5 +155

TB +3.5 / ATL +16 / GB -4 +155

PARLAY

BAL/IND/WSH ML +392

GB -10 / MIN ML +307

TB/NE ML +197

GB/SF/LV/LAR +162

ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:

A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.

https://pregame.com/game-center

Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!

https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/

Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.

https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/

Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!

https://sportspicks.locals.com/

SUPER CONTEST PICKS

What a great way to start off the season with a 4-1 week 1 and we are in the money! Here's this week's plays and you can catch them LIVE early Saturday morning on my youtube channel.

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May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 10

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:19:50

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May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 9

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:18:06

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May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 8

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:10:02

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July 02, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Here's where the money is at in MLB today!

Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html

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June 29, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Here's today's games!

Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html

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June 26, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Rumble Link:
https://rumble.com/v2wg7ja-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-26-2023.html

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September 04, 2025

NFL Week 1 Teaser Pool

FOOTBALL IS BACK! Which means TEASERS ARE BACK! Those of you who haven’t followed me in the past will find out quickly teasers are my favorite and best things to bet. I take a unique approach when betting them. I do a lot of the things the ‘sharps’ would tell you not to do and don’t simply stick to the Advantage Teasers (aka Wong teasers). I also mainly bet 3 leg teasers. The key is to make sure you are at least getting +150 or better on a 3 leg teaser. What I also like to add to the mix is making sure 1 game is outside the play time of the other 2, that way I have an opportunity to hedge if I choose and create a middle.

Listed below is the pool of teaser options that I like and below that are the ones I bet.

PHI -2.5
PHI/DAL U54
LAC +9
PIT +3.5
CAR/JAX U53
NYG +12
CLE +11
LV +8.5
ATL +8
DEN -3
SF +3.5
GB +4
BAL/BUF O44.5

MY 3 LEG TEASERS

PHI -2.5 / LAC +9 / PIT +8.5 +150

PHI -2.5 / CLE +11 / SF +3.5 +155

LV +8.5 / CAR/JAX U53 / SF +3.5 +155

ATL +8 ...

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September 03, 2025

NFL Week 1

NFL WEEK 1 BETTING CARD

SIDES + TOTALS + PARLAYS

PHI/DAL UNDER 47.5
LAC ML +150
NYJ 1H +0.5 / PIT ML (FOR THE GAME) +336
PIT/NYJ UNDER 38.5
JAX ML -190
NYG +6
NYG ML +215
CLE +5
NE/LV UNDER 44
ATL ML +115
SF -2.5
GB -2.5
BAL ML -115
MIN -2

PLAYER PROPS

AJ BROWN TD +160
CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 20.5 COMPLETIONS / UNDER 218.5 YARDS +425

SURVIVOR PICKS: PHI, JAX, AZ, DEN, PIT

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August 28, 2025

NCAA Pick + Live Stream Tonight

Hey I'll be live tonight streaming my auction draft. I'll be on camera this time. Making it Rumble Premium content.

Also, I'm on South Florida over on Kalshi.

275 contracts 34 cents buy price

Looking to sell if they get to 70 cents+ depending how the game goes.

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August 19, 2025

The Bengals Are WASTING Joe Burrow's Career!

It's silly to overreact to one game, especially a preseason game where teams are not at full potential. In the sports betting world you never want to react to a small sample size and instead focus on a trend or team that gives you the most relevant data points possible. But when the small sample size correlates with the long historical trend then IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!

That's EXACTLY what is happening with the Bengals. Last night's game was a pointless preseason game where the Bengals decided to play their starters for the first quarter. It was more of the same of what we saw last season. Burrow had to be a magician to make plays happen, the offensive line could not protect, and their defense couldn't stop a high school team from running on them.

But maybe Burrow is getting exactly what he deserves. Afterall, he took the big payday (which he deserves) and he advocated for the team to pay BOTH his WRs Chase and Higgins instead of spending more money on the offensive line or defense. Here's the current contract for just 3 players on the Bengals:

Burrow: 5 years, $275 million, $219 million guaranteed

Chase: 4 years, $161 million, $112 million guaranteed

Higgins: 4 years, $115 million, $60 million guaranteed

That's $124 million per year for 3 players. The salary cap for the 25 season is $279 million and the Bengals are spending roughly 44% of their cap space on 3 players. Now we all know the cap goes up every year but still you will be spending over a third of your cap on 3 players for the next 4 years.

THE BENGALS NEED TO OPEN THE CHECKBOOK AND START SPENDING MONEY ON OFFENSIVE LINE AND THEIR DEFENSE OR TRADE AWAY BURROW!

The last part of that is not going to happen but should be seriously considered! They are wasting his career and Burrow may go down in the history books as the next Dan Mario. Really good but never had enough around him to win the big game that matters.

What can the Bengals do now? First, they can take care of this Trey Hendrickson situation. Either pay the man or trade him away for draft capital. If this season ends up being a disaster like last season (as I predict) and they are able to secure extra draft pick(s), they will be set up to get one of the top linemen in next year's draft.

Or just pay the man. Normally I would say 1 player does not make a difference on the defense overall, but here's the numbers of when Hendrickson is on the field and when he's not:

#32 pressure rate

#32 completion rate alowed

#32 success rate alowed

#32 passer rating alowed

But when Hendrickson plays, the Bengals pass defense ranks top 12 in each of those categories.

Hendrickson also had back to back 17.5 sack seasons. Only other players to do this in NFL history is JJ Watt and Reggie White. He has 35 sacks the last 2 seasons and no other Bengals has more than 8.

PAY THE MAN OR GET DRAFT PICKS TO GET MUCH NEEDED HELP FOR YOU OFFENSIVE LINE AND QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR QB!

Let’s look at Cincy’s offensive line ranking in pass block win rate by year:

2021: #30

2022: #30

2023: #27

2024: #32

Not good.

For 2025 the Bengals rank 23rd in spending on their offensive line with $41.9 million. They are paying as much for the whole offensive line as they are for 1 WR.

Make it make sense.

Bottom line, Bengals need to get serious about building their team. DO NOT WASTE YOUR GENERATIONAL QB! Start addressing the oline, find a way to get your defense to be average, and draft better. Or you may as well trade Burrow and continue to be one of the biggest jokes of the league.

Read full Article

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February 07, 2025

Super Bowl Betting Card

SUPER BOWL BETTING CARD

Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!

I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.

My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.

WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK

STRAIGHT BETS

Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
- This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
1Q UNDER 9.5
GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
1Q EXACT SCORE:
- KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
- KC 3 PHI 3 +2500

PARLAYS

+2600
- MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
- BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
- WORTHY TD
- SMITH TD
PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
- If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.

PROPS

COIN TOSS: HEADS -101
EAGLES ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY: YES +170
KICK TO DONK OFF UPRIGHT: YES +550

LONGSHOTS

BUTKER MVP +10000
TRIPLE CROWN: MAHOMES / WORTHY / HURTS +5000

Read full Article

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January 15, 2025

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Stats, Trends, and Best Bets!

NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND STATS, TRENDS, BEST BETS!

We are down to 8! Let's dive into each of these games breaking down the stats and trends. Then I'll give you my thoughts and best bets! Check back in throughout the week for my updated picks because I'm going to try and get the info out to you ASAP and as I place bets I will update this article with my picks.

GENERAL PREVIEW

Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970.
The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1. The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
Lions/Commanders total is 55.5. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and ChiefS, Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
Both Saturday games have bIG spreads. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) have won 18 consecutive playoff games outright dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs; the last loss came with the Ravens against the Titans. That 18-game streak is the longest streak at any point in the Super Bowl era.
If Texans-Chiefs closes under 43.5, it would be the lowest over/under for any playoff game with Patrick Mahomes.
Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%). When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET).
Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.
We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round. On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.
Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser. Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
In his coaching career, Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

Texans at Chiefs (-9) | Total: 41.5

The over/under in Chiefs/Texans is 41.5. Of Mahomes’ 18 career playoff games, this would be his lowest total, his previous low was 43.5 against the Dolphins last year. Of his 69 career home starts, this would be his 2nd-lowest total ever behind Christmas of last year against the Raiders at 40.5, a game KC lost.
Travis Kelce is 343 receiving yards away from breaking Jerry Rice's all time playoff record. He is also 3 TDs away from tying Jerry's all time playoff TD record.
Kelce has 5+ receptions in 14 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak by any player since the merger.
Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games is 28-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Mahomes is 31-7 SU, 19-18-1 ATS playing on extended rest during the season and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 37-8 SU and 24-20-1 ATS on extended rest.
If you focus on extreme prep/rest, which would be 13+ days, Mahomes is 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS, including those Week 1 games.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 28-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round of the playoffs (8-0)
Mahomes is 22-32-3 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career, including 0-5-1 ATS this season. In those six games this year as a 7+ pt favorite, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU.
The Texans' defense has been a great unit this year and that was no different last week vs. the Chargers. Houston is 10th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs, 10th vs. #3 WRs, and they are 5th vs. TEs.
The Houston Texans — a team playing in a dome — will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30-degree weather for the playoffs 9 times. Those teams are 2-7 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
C.J. Stroud has made 35 career starts in the NFL. He’s 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 13-3 in a 6-point teaser.
Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 10-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS when listed as an underdog.

COMMANDERS AT LIONS (-9.5) | TOTAL: 55

The over/under will probably be one of the bigger stories in betting this week. It opened at 54.5 and is up to 55.5/56 in the market.The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
We’ve seen 17 over/under’s in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more, they are 9-8 to the over all-time, but just 4-7 to the over since 2013-14, going under the total by 7.1 PPG. If you break it down by indoors vs. outdoors, 5-2 to the over indoors and 6-1 to the under outdoors.
In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 19-5 (79%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
Commanders trailed the Bucs entering the 4th quarter last week and even had a last-minute drive while tied to win it. Teams to win after trailing entering the 4th quarter in a playoff game are just 11-25 SU since 2001.
Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season, including 6-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 10-0 SU as favorites in primetime, winning by over 10 PPG, and in games starting at 4p ET or later, they are 15-1 SU under Campbell, with their one loss coming to the Bills this season.
Lions are coming off the best 3-year stretch (2022-24, 36-14-1 ATS) and the best 4-year stretch (2021-24, 47-20-1 ATS) in the Super Bowl era.
Lions went 8-0 SU on the road this season, both their losses coming at home to the Bills and Buccaneers.
As a duo, Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when facing teams scoring 24 PPG or more on the season – Detroit’s two ATS losses have come to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
Washington played the perfect game last week, with zero punts. Teams with 2 punts or less in their last playoff game, who are 6+ pt dogs the next week are 0-8 SU since 2002.
Commanders are in a tough spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 45-72 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 5-13 SU the last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-60 SU (26%), including 1-12 SU in the last 13 games in this spot.

RAMS AT EAGLES (-6) | TOTAL: 44

Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 35-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 18-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
In Hurts’ career, he is 27-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 15-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU, and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 24-12 in those quarters in the second half.
It is expected to be around 35 degrees with some rain or snow and light wind in the forecast. Stafford has started just one game in 40-degree or colder temperatures outdoors over the last three years – earlier this season at the Jets. Rams scored 19 pts, and won 19-9 in New York.
We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
In franchise history, the Eagles have never lost at home in the Divisional Round. They are 6-0 SU, covering the spread in 5 of those games.
Eagles are streaking entering this NFC Divisional Round. They’ve won three in a row both SU and ATS, the only team from the Wild Card round, on normal rest or less, playing this week. Teams on such a streak in the playoffs last decade are just 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS, with the under 16-6 in those games.
Not just the streak, Philly’s defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 13 pts or less in three straight games entering this playoff game. Last 20 years, we’ve seen just eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight. Those teams went 2-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their playoff game. The last three teams scored a total of 10 combined pts in their games (‘21 BAL, ‘16 HOU, ‘15 IND).
In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
Rams started the season 1-4 SU and are now a win away from the NFC Championship game. Rams are the 17th team to start 1-4 SU or worse and make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, and none made it to the Super Bowl.
In his coaching career, he’s 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

RAVENS AT BILLS (+1) | TOTAL: 51.5

This is the 5th time Lamar Jackson has faced Josh Allen. Baltimore is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The spread has only closed below 3 in one of their games, the 2020-21 playoff game won by the Bills in Buffalo.
As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 30-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
If Lamar closes as an underdog, he is 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in that role, including 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As a dog, Lamar is covering the spread by 7.4 PPG.
Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season. Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win percentage of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Three of the four matchups this week are rematches of games already played this season: Chiefs/Texans, Eagles/Rams, Bills/Ravens. Last decade in the playoffs, teams who played rematches in the same season, the team who won the previous game is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS in the rematch. For Baltimore, teams to win by 20+ pts in that first game are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last decade.
Ravens downed the Steelers last week. The week after facing the Steelers, Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS over the last two seasons, including 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after facing Pittsburgh.
The Ravens are 27-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive now just twice – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest, and last week vs. Steelers.
Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
Josh Allen faces a much-improved Ravens defense. Ravens have allowed only 20.8 PPG this season and allowed just 14 points in the Wild Card Round. Allen vs. teams allowing less than 21 PPG is 27-12-1 ATS (69%).
When opponents score 21 pts or more against the Bills, Buffalo is just 4-22 ATS since 2022, which is the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. During that same span, the Ravens are 9-12-2 ATS in that spot, the 3rd-best ATS mark in the NFL.
The Bills are an NFL-best 14-4 to the over on their team total this season. This includes going 8-1 to the over at home.

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