INTRO: I had a crazy hot start to the year. So much so I ended up #1 over on the Action Network which was pretty cool to see. The hardest part about betting the NFL is winning the week after you had a profitable week. It's too easy to get over confident and hold grudges on the few picks you lost instead of making the proper adjustments. That's why this community is awesome because we can help each other stay on track and follow our systems. Let's have another profitable week and PLEASE share this report card everywhere or with someone who you think would enjoyt. Afterall, it's free.
I am slowly building this ASAP so check back throughout the week as I update parts of this article especially my picks.
NFL WEEK 2 TRENDS:
-Week 2 historically sees more unders than overs hit
-0-1 teams vs 1-0 teams are 52% straight up to win since 2000 (probably due to the 0-1 team having urgency)
-Teams who are 0-1 facing a team that is 1-0 AND are unerdogs in the game WIN the game outright 62% of the time since 2010. This appleis to NYJ, CAR, and TEN this week.
-Since 2019, teams playing consecuative road games in Week 2 are 8-0 against the spread. This applies to NE, IND, and TB this week.
SURVIVOR PICK
If you're still alive in your survivor pick congrats! This was a great year to win week 1 as most pools had about 2/3rds of their contestants gone! Here's my pick for the week (as of now). I don't try and map out the year or worry about not having someone for later in the season because I've learned it doesn't work in your favor to plan on using a team later on. I take who I think has the best chance that week of winning.
My pick: Bengals (changed this because I don't see where I would like the Bengals better again this season)
PICK'EM CONTEST PLAYS:
Anyone who is in a pick'em contest (like myself) these picks are for you. Doesn't mean I'm betting these teams just that here's what I'm playing this week for my pools.
KC💰
BAL
CLE
WAS
IND
TB
NYG
NE
LAR
SF
CIN
DEN
LV
GB
TEN
MIN
GAMES (my thoughts)
LAC @ KC
Huge game here early on in the season, especially for their division. Both teams are 1-0 and a win here will give either team an edge going forward. Chiefs are favored and I think that’s the right call being that they are home and it’s a short week. Line is set at KC -3.5 and that feels right to me. What I’m more looking towards is the total. Both are high powered offenses but 54.5 seems a little high to me. If you were to tease this game only the value is taking LAC to +9.5 or better and to the under. But I would try and tie the under 60.5 to other plays on Sunday. One thing is certain and that’s this will be a good game. I snagged KC at -3.5 and I'm gald I did because it has moved to -4.5 and I could see this line getting to 6 by kickoff. I like the under in this game as well. Chiefs will be without their starting kicker which may favor the over if they decide to go for it in situation they normally wouldn't, but there's not many times Andy Reid wouldn't go for it on 4th down to begin with so I'm not worried.
-In the Wild Card era (since 1990), totals of 54.5 or higher on TNF are 7-0 to the under, going under the total by 13.8 PPG
PLAYER PROPS FOR THIS GAME
-Mahomes over 19 rush yards
Normally I would not play this high of a total for a QB rush yards even for one who is a good runner, but I think we have an edge here. Last year Mahomes ran for 45 yards and 32 yards in the games against LAC. This indicates that LAC plays back more in a zone to cover his great WRs and gives opportunities for Mahomes to take off and run, which we know he is capable of. With KC's offenseive line being better this season it also gives me confidence that he will have enough time to make his reads and have the lanes to take off and run if necessary.
-CEH under 47.5 rush yards
Last year he rushed for 32 yards and 100 yards. So this number feels like they are splitting the difference a little. Now he's sharing the workload with other backs. Last week he only carried the ball 7 times as they looked to use him in more of a passing situation. Pacheco was the leading carrier for KC with 12 carries. I think we have an edge here given how LAC plays defense that Mahomes will look to use CEH in the passing game and that the Chiefs won't look to run the ball much in this game.
-Kelce over 79.5 rec yards and Kelce over 7 receptions
Boy oh boy does this feel square? YES! And you know I hate betting on super stars. But we have a huge edge here. Kelce caught 10 passes for 191 and 7 catches for 104 yards in the games against LAC last season. We know Kelce is a favorite target for Mahomes so he will get the volume. But what the results of last season tells me is there's a clear matchup issue with the Chiefs offense vs the Chargers defense that is favorable to TE's. And from what I saw last week it doesn't look like much has changed. So I'm riding with the public on this one and expect Kelce to come out and dominate at home against a team he knows well and has had recent success against.
IND @ JAX
As expected, IND shit the bed week 1 playing a divisional opponent on the road. I stayed away from that game but all signs pointed to taking HOU. Now that they got that out of the way I expect IND to turn it up in this game. Season on the line and JAX is awful. Don’t get me wrong, JAX played a great second half but IND has way more talent and should win this game with ease. I would lay the -4 now with IND because the public is going to come in and raise this to -6. If IND loses this game they can kiss their season goodbye.
MIA @ BAL
This game is very interesting to me. I have to resist my natural bias against MIA because I was completely wrong on them last week so naturally I want to double down against them this week. But I recognize my bias. This game comes down to if BAL’s defense can handle MIA’s speed on offense. BAL’s offense should be able to run on MIA. Like all BAL games with Lamar, if they get a lead it’s over they will be able to control clock and win. Therefore it comes down to BAL’s defense. I will have more on this game later in the week.
NYJ @ CLE
BAL had great success running the ball on NYJ and I expect CLE to be able to do the same. CLE’s defense should get pressure on Flacco and make it a long day. What makes me nervous is the trend listed above about 0-1 teams facing 1-0 teams as underdogs. All signs point to CLE winning this game which should happen. But this is the NFL and you make more money betting against what everyone else is on therefore I am likely to take the points with the Jets this week. Does it make any sense, NO, but will it probably be the right call, YES. More to come later.
TB @ NO
Call me biased all you want but I give it to you straight. Everything I saw from TB last week makes me love them this week. Defense looked great. Brady and the offense looked dialed in they just need to figure it out on the offensive line. I know everyone is going to say TB struggles in NO but this is not the same NO team of the past. As I have said before, I am low on NO this season and we saw why this week. They have lost too many pieces due to poor salary cap management. Give me the GOAT this week. Current line opened TB -3 and if you like it I would bet it now as this line should go up as the public take TB.
UPDATE: Some may be worried because the line is going towards TB -2.5 and I think I know why. A lot of sharp bettors over the summer played NO +2.5 or +3. But that line didn't move at all. Now that the week is finally here the books open TB -3 but they have since realized they have way too much $$ on NO +3 that they need to take some more TB $$ so they lower the line to TB -2.5 for now. Remember, these books don't care about the outcome. They just want to set a line where they can get as close to 50/50 action for each side because that's where they make their profit. I still expect this line to get to TB -3.5 come Sunday.
NE @ PIT
This is the hardsest game for me this week. I am a NE fan as y'all know but I put my bias aside. Am I upset we lost and looked terrible to MIA, absoloutly. But the defense actually looked really good in that game, especially with the speed advantage MIA had. Then there's PIT. Great defense. Watt is out. Emotional divisional win against CIN. Still has terrible QB play. So it comes down to which offense is going to get the edge on the other defense. One team coming off an emotional divsional win, the other a loss. Also have to add in the factor of Belichick coming off a loss and knowing going 0-2 to start the season means your season is likely done. Therefore I lean NE but don't love it. More coming later this week. I would look towards the under in this game, but it opened 43 and has crashed to 40. So I could only now look to teasing the under in this game just to get the value back.
CAR @ NYG
I bet this earlier in the summer based off of one thing only. Win or lose week 1, CAR was going to have an emotional game againt CLE beacuse of Baker. And with them losing I like NYG at home even more. If CAR loses this game, they're going to start the season 0-7 and who knows what happens after that. Giants were able to get the running game going in week 1 and that will be key in their home opener this week against CAR.
WAS @ DET
Say what you want about DET but Dan Campbell gets his teams motivated. I have a hard time fading DET when they are a dog early in the season. Luckily, they are not a dog in this game yet. So that has me leaning towards WAS. Wentz gets a lot of hate from people and I understand why, I just don't think it's because of a lack of talent it's more because he doesn't seem to get along with his teammates. Wentz is the better QB in this game and I think WAS has the better offense with those good young WRs. The public will be all over DET as they are a fan favorite after hard knocks. I lean towards WAS and may pull the trigger on them eventually, but might look towards some props instead.
SEA @ SF
This game is simple to me. SF season is on the line and SEA is riding high off a big MNF win. SF is going to blow out SEA and I am leaning towards laying the points with SF. I know Lance hasn't looked good but I'm banking on Shanahan having a game plan set that will make it easy for him to succeed. Also, he gets Kittle back and a TE is always a favorite of a young QB. Meanwhile, Seattle didn't score at all in the second half of last game. Let's be honest, although we were on the ML with them agianst DEN they got extremely lucky to win that game. That is hard to repeat week to week. I'm looking for a book that has who will score the lowest points this week because SEA is my bet as I think they may even get shutout this game.
ATL @ LAR
Classic Falcons blowing a 4th Q lead, but they did cover the game. Everyone is on the Rams to win this game and blow the Falcons out. I'm just not confident the Rams terrible start was just a fluke or because the Bills are that good because to me it can be serious issues with their offensive line. The Falcons are always the "sharp" guys in Vegas darling team and have been profitable over the years. At +10.5 makes me feel like ATL is the right side, but for now I have no play and can only look to teasing ATL up.
AZ @ LV
I think AZ is the biggest fraud team out there and their loss last week to the Cheifs was no fluke. To me, they are going to be bad this season. Everyone wants to hop on them because they usually start the season on fire. But there was too much drama this offseason that this team is not in sync and Murray is set to have a bad year. Most don't agree with me on this but that's why it's gambling and I think there's money to be made fading AZ. Meanwhile, LV has a lot of talent. And in this game I think they are the more talented team so with the season on the line (both teams are 0-1) I will take the better talent and take LV.
TEX @ DEN
Let's not overreact to DEN losing to SEA. They were the better team in that game. They had too many dumb penalties on defense and those two fumbles inside the 5 were a fluke. Look for a big bounce back not just from Russel Wilson in a home opener, but from that defense to make some plays. Double digit points is never fun to lay but this is a spot we may need to look to do so and DEN will be a teaser leg for me.
BEN @ DAL
This game is simple to me. The public is overreacting to DAL's poor performance last week and Dak being out. I get it, no one wants to bet against Burrow and the Bengals after a loss. But DAL is home for this game and if you can get them +7 or better I think you have huge value in this game.
CHI @ GB
Are we having deja vu with the Packers this season? Last year they got blown out by the Saints only top turn around and win 13 straight thereafter. We know Rodgers is calm, cool, and collected in these spots and will show up. But does he have enough around him? I'm not a fan at all of CHI being on record saying they could have the worst record this season, but a lot of people like their weapons. I simply haven't seen it yet. But the unknowns from GB makes me nervous to lay the double digit points this week. Therefore this game will probably be a stay away from me, but here's some stats for you to determine if it's a game you want to bet.
-Aaron Rodgers is 23-5 straight up and 21-7 against the spread vs. the Bears
-Rodgers has won and coverd his last 6 meetings against Chicago
-He is 8-1 straight up and 9-0 ATS vs the Bears after a loss
TEN @ BUF
There's times when betting the NFL you have to take the pick that nobody wants to make. This will seperate you from the rest of the bettors out there and be on the side of Vegas. Everyone loves the Bills right now. They blew out the defending Super Bowl champs on their home field opening night. They are the current Super Bowl favorites. So why fade them? Simple. Because no one wants to so that's why we should. We are getting double digits with TEN here coming off an embarrasing loss. Remember, TEN was the #1 seed last year in the AFC. You don't get the #1 seed by accident. You do it by having good coaching. So I expect TEN to be coached up well for this game and to win the game. They have had the Bill's number too in the past. Don't be shocked if TEN wins this game, but also it's highly likely they cover the spread.
MIN @ PHI
This game is a coin flip to me but I lean towards MIN with the points. The public is all over PHI and I get it. But I think MIN offensively is very impressive and are going to give that PHI defense, who let DET score 35 on them, have a tough day. I'll have more on this later in the week as it's one of the MNF games, but right now I'm leaning towards MIN.
OFFICIAL PICKS
NYG -1 (I bet this earlier in the summer, but like it up to -2.5)
LAC/KC under 54.5 💰
LAC/KC 1H UNDER 27.5 💰
KC -3.5 ❌
TB -2.5
TB ML -140
TB 1H -0.5 -120
NO TT U 20.5
IND -4
IND ML -180
IND 1H -2.5
TEN +10
TEN ML +360
NYJ +6
NYJ ML +215
WSH/DET under 48.5
WSH/DET 1H under 24.5
WSH 1H +0.5 -120
WSH ML +106
NE -2
NE 1H -0.5 +100
LAR 1H -7
SF -8.5
LV -5.5
HOU +10
HOU ML +385
MIA TT U 20.5
BAL ML -185
BAL 1H -2.5
SEA TT U 17
PLAYER PROPS
Mahomes over 19 rush yards❌
CEH under 47.5 rush yards❌
Kelce over 79.5 rec yards❌
Kelce over 7 rec❌
Tyreek Hill under 68.6 rec yards
Tyreek Hill under 5.5 receptions +110
Baker Mayfield over 0.5 INTs -120
DAveon Pierce over 42.5 rush yards
Chubb under 80.5 rush yards
Brady over 1.5 TDs -180
Matt Ryan over 1.5 TDs -105
Wentz over 1.5 TDs -110
Stafford over 1.5 TDs -170
Burrow over 1.5 TDs -170
TEASERS
LAC +10 / LAC-KC u 61 -120💰
KC-LAC u 60 / WAS +7 / TB +3.5 +155
KC-LAC u 61 / KC +3 / DET-WSH u 55.5 +135
DET-WSH o 42.5 / TB +3.5 / SF -2.5 +155
LAC +10 / NYJ +12.5 / TB +3.5 +155
KC +2 / WAS +7 / ATL +16.5 +155
TB +3.5 / ATL +16 / GB -4 +155
PARLAY
BAL/IND/WSH ML +392
GB -10 / MIN ML +307
TB/NE ML +197
GB/SF/LV/LAR +162
ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:
A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.
https://pregame.com/game-center
Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!
https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/
Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.
https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/
Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!
https://sportspicks.locals.com/
SUPER CONTEST PICKS
What a great way to start off the season with a 4-1 week 1 and we are in the money! Here's this week's plays and you can catch them LIVE early Saturday morning on my youtube channel.
