INTRO:My bread and butter finally came through and the teasers on the report card last week is what pulled through and made it a profitable week. The beginnig of the season can get a little wild and now we are starting to see thing settle in. People think they know these teams but the sportsbooks are getting sharper by the week. Let's continue the hot streak and win here in week 4.
REMEMBER!!! I PUT THIS OUT AS EARLY AS I CAN FOR YOU, BUT I WILL UPDATE THIS ARTICLE AS THE WEEK GOES ON WITH MORE STATS AND MORE PICKS. MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN ALL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK SO YOU DON'T MISS ANY UPDATES.
PICK'EM PLAYS
FOR CONTEST ONLY
CIN ✅
NO❌
TEN✅
NYG✅
DAL✅
BAL❌
LAC✅
DET❌
NYJ✅
JAX❌
CLE❌
AZ✅
GB✅
LV✅
KC✅
LAR❌
INTERESTING TRENDS FOR WEEK 4
coming soon
THE GAMES:
MIA @ CIN -4, O/U 47
The line in this game shows you that sportsbooks are becoming very sharp and ignoring the public with the Bengals opening up as a 4 point favorite at home. Most public bettors would make MIA the favorite in this game and that's what the books want. They want the average bettor to get suckered into taking MIA with the points. You have been warned.
Why is CIN the right side? Afterall, their offensive line has looked terrible and they are 1-2 going up against the red hot Dolphins who are 3-0. It's simple. Books know MIA looks better than they are and CIN looks worse than they are and they want to take advantage of the squares who will be all over MIA.
I think CIN is the right side and I have bet it big. Not because Tua probably had a concussion yesterday and looked terrible in the second half (remember they have the best backup QB in the league in Teddy Bridgewater) but because of MIA's defense. MIA's defense has played lights out this year! Even Sunday they held the Bills to only 19 points. So why am I fading them? It's a short week and MIA's defense was on the field for 90 plays in that heat yesterday. Reports are multiple players were cramping and had to get IV's after the game to recover. Although they have the best treatment possible I don't think there's anything that can get a body to recover in 3 days to play another NFL game after being so dehydrated that you needed IV fluids. But, I've been wrong before.
MIN @ NO +2.5, O/U 44
This game is in London and will be played before the first slate of games kick off Sunday. There's a crazy stat that teams the week before heading to London cover at a 25% rate. Well both these teams looked terrible last week and didn't cover so they fell into that statistic.
I don't know how I feel about this game yet. Both teams are bad. If NO defense can shake off last week and get back to normal I think they will be in good shape to win this game. Granted that NO's offense can be decent at minimum.
Cousins has OCD and covers at a rate of nearly 70% when home and playing at 1PM. Outside of that he is terrible ATS. Now he's flying across the globe to play a game? I think that alone should have you leaning NOs in this game.
CLE @ ATL -1, O/U 49.5
Don't out think the room on this one. ATL has been playing very well. But they got the monkey off their back by getting that first W of the season and are coming home after being on the west coast for two weeks. CLE is the better team and has more talent. CLE will move the ball at will against ATL's defense. It will take ATL's offense playing a perfect game for ATL to win this one. CLE wins easy as long as they don't give this one away.
WAS @ DAL -3.5, O/U 42.5
Everything tells me to take WAS in this game. WAS looks like garbage, meanwhile DAL just had a nice MNF win against the NYG tonight. As of now, I just can't back Wentz and the Commanders. They look terrible. This will be a stay away game for me for now or at the most a teaser leg.
UPDATE: I've changed my mind. Main reason. Everyone is on DAL. No one wants to bet on WAS. That tells me it's time to bet on WAS. When you make the bet in the NFL that no one else wants to make, more times than not you are on the right side. Let's plug our nose and take WAS +3.5.
SEA @ DET -4.5, O/U 50
DET as a favorite? Seems too good to be true. DET is a covering machine under Campbell but that has been mainly as a dog. Now they are laying 6 against SEA who is not a good team. This game feels like a trap to me becuase SEA can backdoor cover in this one. It's a stay away for me for now, but I will be looking at teasing SEA up to +12 or better.
TEN @ IND -3, O/U 42.5
IND gets the win but let's be honest, they should have lost that game and been 0-3. They were not impressive at all and Matt Ryan looks old. He is late on his reads and delivery on passes. TEN seems to have the better talent and potentially better overall coaching. Big game for the division title on the line here, but I will take TEN +3 or better all day and will play some on the ML as well.
CHI @ NYG -3.5, O/U 39
Short week for the NYG here but just remember this, Justin Fields has only completed 23 passes this season. Many QBs go over this in a single game. Say what you want about NYG on MNF but they did not look half bad. I like NYG here as I have CHI as a terrible team currently and NYG as an average football team as long as they stay healthy. Depending where the line falls I will be looking to tease NYG as well with the under in this game.
JAX @ PHI -6.5, O/U 48
This is an interesting matchup. We have a public favorite and current 3-0 team in PHI. Then we have the terrible franchise of JAX that somehow has found some magic with new coach Doug Petersen. JAX gets an impressive win in LAC but now heading on the road again to PHI. Can they not get too excited off the win in LA and bring it in PHI? I'm not sure yet. I like the points with them for now as PHI has to hit a snag one of these games and JAX is plahying like they have nothing to lose. But not convinced yet they are ready to get the W on the road back to back weeks.
NYJ @ PIT -3.5, O/U 40.5
When we have two bad teams I think the most logical play is taking the points. We are getting NYJ +3.5 and I don't see why we don't take advantage. Jets are playing good on both sides of the ball. Hopefully they just stay with Flacco this week and don't switch to Wilson but we will see.
BUF @ BAL +3, O/U 51.5
I know this is going to sound weird but BAL should be favored in this game. We will wait and see who is going to be active for BUF defense but as of now BAL is the perfect team to go up against this BUF defense. Why? BUF's defense when healthy is a bend don't break defense and will allow you to run on them. The problem is if BUF's defense isn't healthy Lamar is going to rip them apart on the ground and through the air. BUF also had multiple players who were cramping and needed IV's after the game for dehydration. Tough to bounce back after that the following week.
LAC @ HOU +4.5, O/U 44
HOU has had a nice run but I see LAC in a get right game here especially after dropping one to JAX. Don't over think this and take LAC. More to come later in the week.
AZ @ CAR +2.5, O/U 43
You guys know I am low on AZ. But I think people are overreacting to them and hyping up CAR too much. Baker is playing as one of the worst QBs in the NFL this season if you look at QBR. I like AZ to win this game easy. Take them as a dog while you can.
NE @ GB -10.5, O/U 40.5
Mac Jones is out for the Patriots but I can tell you this, NE's defense is not that bad that they should be giving up 10.5 to GB. Will they cover? IDK. But what I do love is teasing NE up to +16.5 and if they lose that then don't bet on them the rest of the season.
Aaron Rodgers under passing yards is a play to watch.
The line isn't out yet but if the number is right I'm looking to fade Rodgers. Something seems off with him and we know he doesn't have good chemistry with his young WRs yet. GB shouldn't be playing from behind this week against NE so the likelihood of them running the ball more in the second half increases and plays to our favor.
DEN @ LV -2.5, O/U 46
Are the Raiders really going to start 0-4? I don't think so. But I don't feel great about either of these teams. I wish I could say LV has the coaching edge here but McDaniels doesn't seem to be a good head football coach. For now this is a stay away game for me but it's early in the week.
KC @ TB +2, O/U 45
TB needs to get healthy. Until they do I don't think there's going to be worth it to take them in a game beacause as we saw Sunday when the offense is bad it's really bad. KC coming off a loss in a game they should have won will have them focused even more for this game. Oh and it's SNF. I lean to laying the points with the Chiefs but I like some player props better for this one.
Mike Evans over yards and receptions (possibly Brady over pass attempts/completions)
Number isn't out yet but I don't think the books can make the line high enough. The main reason I like this play is we know Evans is going to get the workload. Especially if Julio is out again. Brady needs to get this offense moving and we can assume KC is going to score so TB should be playing from behind this game. At worst, we should have a good shot at a backdoor garbage time cover to hit the over.
LAR @ SF -2, O/U 42
I think we have to be very concerned about SF losing its left tackle Trent Williams for 4-6 weeks. They already weren't running the ball well and now they don't have the big guy to protect Jimmy G's backside. Rams look like they are getting it together and can take a big lead in the division with a win here on the road for MNF.
OFFICIAL PICKS:
CIN -3.5 ✅
CIN -2.5 1H ❌
CIN -1 1Q ✅
MIA TT u 23 ✅
BAL +3.5✅
BAL ML +156❌
AZ ML +108✅
AZ 1H ML -105✅
NO ML +125❌
NO +2.5❌
CLE -1.5❌
CLE ML❌
TEN +3.5✅
TEN ML +150✅
NYJ +3.5✅
NYJ ML +152✅
WAS +3.5❌
DET -3.5❌
KC/TB O 45.5✅
Aaron Rodgers under 232.5 passing yards❌
The line isn't out yet but if the number is right I'm looking to fade Rodgers. Something seems off with him and we know he doesn't have good chemistry with his young WRs yet. GB shouldn't be playing from behind this week against NE so the likelihood of them running the ball more in the second half increases and plays to our favor.
Mike Evans over yards and receptions (possibly Brady over pass attempts/completions)✅
Number isn't out yet but I don't think the books can make the line high enough. The main reason I like this play is we know Evans is going to get the workload. Especially if Julio is out again. Brady needs to get this offense moving and we can assume KC is going to score so TB should be playing from behind this game. At worst, we should have a good shot at a backdoor garbage time cover to hit the over.
TEASERS:
CIN +3 / BAL +10.5 / TEN +10.5 / NE +17 / KC +5 +350 (7pt tease)✅
TEN +9.5 / MIN-NO o35.5 / WAS +9.5 +155❌
NO +9 / NYG +3 / NE +15.5 +155✅
BAL +9 / NYJ +9 / KC-TB o39.5 +155✅
TEN +9.5 / BAL +9 / BAL-BUF u57 +155✅
PHI -0.5 / WAS +9.5 / CLE +5 +155❌
CLE +5 / AZ +5 / KC +6 +155✅
CLE +5 / NE-GB o34 / KC +6 +155✅
TEN +9.5 / CLE +5 / KC-TB o39.5 +155✅
ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:
A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.
https://pregame.com/game-center
Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!
https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/
Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.
https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/
Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!
https://sportspicks.locals.com/
SUPER CONTEST PICKS:
Terrible week by us going 1-4. We have some making up to do and I take full responsibility for it. We get right this week so make sure you tune into the live show every Saturday morning 5:30 AM PST over on my Youtube channel.
