- OPENING RANT:
Well we finally had a losing week in the NFL and it was a weird week. But it happens and the only explanation I can give you is it's football. I should have known it was going to be a weird week after the public cleaned house against the books in week 4 which was the first time this year that happened. Funny how that works out.
Big bounce back week for us coming up and I love the slate. I'm going to work on getting more content out including an exclusive live stream here on Locals.
REMEMBER I PUT THIS OUT AS EARLY AS I CAN BUT WILL BE ADDING DETAILS TO EACH GAME AND PICKS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
- PICK'EM CONTEST PICKS:
THIS IS ONLY FOR PICK'EM PLAYS, DOES NOT MEAN I RECOMMEND BETTING THESE PICKS.
WAS✅
NE
SF
NYJ
IND
MIA
NO
BAL
TB
LAR
SEA
BUF
DAL
LAC
- THE GAMES:
WAS @ CHI PK, O/U 39.5
Well if you were hoping for an exciting Thursday Night Football game after the duds we have seen so far, you're going to have to wait another week.
I can't trust either of these teams. Chicago's close game with MIN last week was deceiving. MIN had 450+ yards on offense compared to CHI 260. That game should never have been close if you look at YPP. Meanwhile there's turmoil in WAS. After a disappointing start to the season you have Ron Rivera calling out his QB for poor performance. Not really want you want to see when betting on a team.
As of now I don't have a play on this game. If I had to choose I would play CHI because of the short week and travel WAS will be dealing with.
UPDATE: People are hammering the under not just because these two teams are terrible, but because unders have been very profitable this season, especially in prime time. It is now at 37.5 which makes me like the over in a teaser. Even though I think it's a bad spot for WAS, the smart tease is taking them +7 and tying it to the over at 31.5. That's what I'll be on. So far, bettors are on CHI with 53% of the tickets being on CHI -1 but with 78% of the money (a +25 differential). Meanwhile the over at 37.5 is being bet with 66% of the tickets but only 57% of the money.
TB @ PIT +9, O/U 42.5
This is going to be an interesting game to see who is betting where. TB is a public favorite team and PIT just got embarrassed by BUF which usually means the public will want no part of PIT. Normally the Sharps would be all over PIT in this spot but I have a feeling we will see a lot of them passing on this game.
Line opened TB -6.5 (doubt you could have got this anywhere) and moved quickly to TB -9. All the action so far is on TB with 92% of the bets (94% of the money) being bet on TB. Will be interesting to see if someone comes in with big money and takes PIT.
Side note: As a Tom Brady fan and someone who roots on the Bucs because of that I actually like that they have started off slow. Feels like the old NE teams that weren't great to begin with but did enough to win yet come Novemeber they started rolling. The key to TB as I have said before the seaon is their defense. If they stay healthy on defense they will have a shot come playoffs. But by no means do I want to bet on them now while they are so shaky offensively.
JAX @ IND -1, O/U 42
Small line movement already early in the week has it at IND -2 at home. It's painful to say this with how terrible the Colts have looked this year, but they are the right side. Extra rest time, motivated off an embarrasing shutout loss to JAX several weeks ago, and desperate to keep their season alive. Meanwhile, as good as JAX has looked they were very lucky at the beginning of the season based on turnovers and other metrics. No one wants to bet on IND which tells you they are the side to take.
NE @ CLE -3, O/U 42.5
This line opened CLE -3.5 and quickly moved to CLE -3.
I can tell you now the Sharps are taking NE with the points. This line will probably close under 3. Bet them now if you like them.
I think NE has a big edge in this game and it's running. LAC last week who is not a running team ran all over CLE. Meanwhile even when teams know NE is going to run they still are able to move the ball and run it down the defense's throat. Feels like a FG game to me so I will be all over the points here.
NYJ @ GB -7.5, O/U 45
Money has come in on the Jets to push this line down to GB -7. Currenlty at that number 74% of the tickets is on GB -7 with 77% of the money.
Jets are a scrappy team. I worry about the fact they got a win over MIA last week that they may come out flat, but I worry more about GB. Teams coming back from London and not taking a bye have all come out flat second half of games the following week. And we already saw GB be flat second half in London this past week. This tells me the backdoor cover is open with the Jets. GB is not in sync right now and Rodgers is already calling out his teammates. History says this is where GB turns it on and starts to dominate, but their luck may have run out. I'll be taking the +7 with the Jets and probably sprinkling a little on the ML.
CIN @ NO +1, O/U 43.5
Too early in the week to get a feel for this game. Need to see the injury report for both teams. Especially who will be playing QB for NO. The biggest question is will CIN's offensive line finally figure it out. Either way, this is a must win for both teams. Winner seasons stays alive, loser is done. Crazy to think both SB teams from last year are in similar bad spots at this point in the season. More to come on this game later in the week.
BAL @ NYG +6, O/U 44
This line opened NYG +6 and is now NYG +5 so some money has come in on the Giants but not enough to move through key numbers.
Normally I would be on the Giants in this spot with everyone calling them the worst 4-1 team in NFL history, but the biggest factor in this game is they are traveling back from London after winning a game they were big underdogs in. Feels like a major let down spot.
BAL is 14 seconds away from being 5-0. They have blown leads in two games this year and DO NOT look good in the second half which is unlike them. This week that should not be a factor because teams coming from London struggle with fatigue in the second half of games if they don't take a bye. So we have the better team who isn't at risk to the fatigue factor as their opponent which lands me in a rare spot of taking a road favorite.
MIN @ MIA +3, O/U 45.5
Need more information on this game later this week to see who is playing QB for MIA but I can tell you already I lean towards MIA. Talk about overrated teams, MIN is 4-1 and they don't feel like one. Do you want to lay 3 on the road with Kirk Cousins? Yeah, neither do I. Will have more info on this game later this week.
SF @ ATL +6, O/U 42.5
I'm waiting to get more information on whether or not the 49ers stayed on the east coast or went back to cali. If they did travel back home this is a terrible spot for them traveling to North Carolina then home then back out to ATL. If they stayed out east it might be a play for me. Either way, this is not a great spot for SF, but ATL is 5-0 ATS this season which means we are getting to a point where the market is going to correct and they will not cover. More to come later.
UPDATE: I love SF here. They have figured out these east coast trips. In the last 4 years they have had back to back east coast games 4 different times. In the second game of the trip they have won 4-0, covered the spread 4-0, and beat the spread by an average of 13 points. Translation, they blow out teams.
ATL can't run the ball and won't be able to on SF. ATL is 2-11 ATS at home against NFC opponents in the last 3 seasons.
CAR @ LAR -9.5, O/U 41.5
Money has come in on the Rams which has this line at Rams -10.5 now.
CAR is a mess and a terrible team. They are talking about trading players which is a sign the locker room has given up on the season. But do you really want to lay double digits with the Rams right now? I sure don't. No strong lean on either side for me at the moment but more to come later in the week.
UPDATE: I now know the right side in this game and it's the Rams. I will be recording a video explaining why here soon.
AZ @ SEA +3, O/U 51.5
I see complete value on the Seahawks in this matchup. First off, AZ and SEA always play each other weird, meaning the team that is favored and that everyone thinks will win ends up struggling in the game.
Arizona has not scored a 1Q TD all season and has not coverd a 1H spread this season. Meanwhile, Seattle is a team that is hot out the gate and slows down in the 2H. So if you are looking for the best odds in this game I would look towards SEA on the ML in 1Q and 1H.
But I will be riding with the Seahawks at +3. They have a top 3 offense and AZ's defense doesn't worry me one bit. Should be a lot of scoring in this game and I expect the Cardinals to struggle when the 12's get that stadium rocking.
BUF @ KC +2, O/U 53.5
This is going to be the best game of the weekend. Buffalo is in the ultimate revenge spot as you may remember the last time these teams saw each other was the playoffs last year where the Bills took a lead with 13 seconds left in the game and somehow KC was able to score and win in OT which everyone was mad about because KC went down and scored a TD in OT which ended the game and BUF never got a chance to respond. Which my response is don't give up a TD in OT and you would get a chance to respond lol.
My favorite bet of this game is the over. You could set this over to 60 and I would still bet it. It's going to be a shootout. Teasing the over is one of my favorite plays of the week as well. Remember, KC is struggling with their kicker out so they are going to be more aggressive in this game. It's also a bad spot for KC on a short week and BUF with all the revenge factor that KC knows they are going to have to take chances and go for it in some spots. That benefits the over because if they covert it means they are more likely to score and if they don't then BUF just got great field position and we know they will take full advantage of that.
This is going to sound strange to a lot of you but I think if you get the line at BUF -2.5 you have to play Bills but if you can get KC +3 then you take KC. It's going to be a coinflip game that BUF has the edge in winning due to the motivation spot plus KC had a tough MNF game and a short week. But KC has a legit chance to win this game so if you can get the +3 that will protect you from a tie game and BUF kicking a game winning FG.
DAL @ PHI -5, O/U 43
Love the Cowboys here and maybe it's because I'm finally drinking the Cooper Rush kool-aid!? No that's not it.
As many of you who have followed me for awhile know that I like to pay attention to the big uglies in the NFL, which most people don't. I focus on the offensive line because it is key to good football being played (just look at the Bengals so far this season). PHI has several starters on the offensive line out due to injury in last week's game. Look a the second half of the game against AZ they were not impressive offensively. Keep an eye out on that injury report this week, if they don't get their key guys on that line back then I would hammer DAL. I have already bet DAL because I don't think they get those guys back. The line has moved against DAL so far and that's because people were hoping for Dak to return. It doesn't matter. DAL's defensive line is going to give Hurts all he can handle and I'll take the points in what could be PHI's first loss of the season.
DEN @ LAC -5, O/U 45.5
Give me the Chargers here. Call me square all you want but there's no way I have confidence in DEN even with the extra time off. Chargers are the real deal. They have injuries on defense but that won't matter as DEN is terrible offensively. I know this is going to feel like a spot where no one wants to take DEN so therefore we should bet them, but I think the public is right in this one. Russel Wilson is a fraud of a QB and I don't think he is in sync with this offense yet for them to really compete against LAC. More details on this game to come later in the week.
- OFFICIAL PICKS:
WAS +1 ✅
NE +3
NE ML +135
BAL -5
BAL 1H -3.5
SF -6
SF 1H -3
BAL 1Q -0.5 (waiting for this to be availble but once it is I would play this up to -2.5)
NYJ +7
IND -2.5
BUF -2.5
BUF/KC 1H over 27
BUF/KC over 54
DAL +5 (you can get them at +6 now and I would take it plus tease them up)
DAL ML +190
LAC -5
TEASERS:
Here's my pool of teasers that I like for NFL this week. From there I have listed my combinations below mixed in with some CFB as well. But if you like any of these you should mix and match them how you see fit. Of course as you know I am all about the 3 leg teasers at +155.
TEASER POOL
WAS +6 ✅
WAS/CHI o32
TB -3
NO +8
IND +4
NE +8.5
NYJ +13
BAL +0.5
MIA +9.5
SF PK
LAR -4
SEA +9
KC +9
DAL +12
LAC +1
KC/BUF o48
WAS +7 / WAS-CHI over 31.5 -110 ❌
Tennessee +13 (CFB) / SEA +9 -110
LSU/FL over 45 / SEA +9 -110
WAS +6 / WAS-CHI o32 / TB -3 +155 ❌
WAS +6 / WAS-CHI o32 / BAL +0.5 +155 ❌
WAS +6 / WAS-CHI o32 / LAR -4 +155 ❌
TB -3 / NE +8.5 / BUF-KC o48 +155
NO +7 / NE +8.5 / KC +9 +155
IND +4 / TB -3 / DAL +12 +155
NYJ +13 / BAL +0.5 / LAC +1 +155
SF PK / BAL +0.5 / LAR -4 +155
MIA +9.5 / KC-BUF o48 / DAL +12 +155
SF +1 / GB -1.5 / NE +8.5 / BAL +0.5 / TB -3 / IND +4 at +600
- ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:
- A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.
https://pregame.com/game-center
- Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!
https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/
- Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.
https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/
- Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!
https://sportspicks.locals.com/
- SUPER CONTEST PICKS:
WE ARE 13-11-1 THIS SEASON, FAR FROM THE TOP BUT STILL IN THE MIX. NEED TO RATTLE OFF A COUPLE 5-0 WEEKS VERY SOON. HERE'S THIS WEEK'S PICKS:
