• OPENING RANT:

Last week was rough. Normally I see an upset weekend coming but last week caught me off guard. Luckily we are still up big on the season. But losing last week has me staying up late at nights and putting in more work to get the picks right this week.

There's a lot to be learned throughout any NFL season. I'm going to talk about this in a video this week but one thing I want to share with you now is this. Just because you lost a bet doesn't mean it wasn't the right bet to make. No one goes 100% all the time. There's times you make a play because it's the right side yet chance and football happens where you end up losing. That's why it's tough betting this sport. But you can't over react to what happened recently or to a couple bad breaks. Stick to your system and keep learning and you'll end up on top in the end.

REMEMBER I PUT THIS OUT AS EARLY AS I CAN BUT WILL BE ADDING DETAILS TO EACH GAME AND PICKS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

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• PICK'EM CONTEST PICKS:

THIS IS ONLY FOR PICK'EM PLAYS, DOES NOT MEAN I RECOMMEND BETTING THESE PICKS.

AZ ✅

TEN✅

NYG✅

TB❌

GB❌

DET❌

ATL❌

BAL✅

DEN❌

HOU❌

LAC❌

KC✅

MIA✅

NE❌

• THE GAMES:

• NO @ AZ -2, O/U 44:

• • Sharp money coming in on the Saints
  • Cardinals getting 58% of the bets but 55% of the money
  • Cardinals coming off an embarrassing loss to the Seahawks where they didn't score an offensive TD.
  • Cardinals getting Hopkins back this week.
  • Saints lose a heart breaker to CIN last week where statistically they should have won
  • Normally on short weeks with TNF you want to take the better, more talented team. I would argue that is AZ in this game especially since they are getting Hopkins back.
  • I personally love AZ in this spot. Public has soured on them. Saints are the "sharps" favorite team to bet but I don't think they are as good as people expect them to be. Hopkins is coming back which will be huge for AZ and Murray. I expect AZ to win this game with ease and to put up points. No idea who will play QB yet for NO but I don't think it will matter. I'm going to bet AZ, the over, and tease both!

• IND @ TEN -2, O/U 42.5

• • Even betting so far on this game at anyting under 3 points.
  • Colts getting 57% of the bets and 54% of the money
  • Personally I will be on TEN at any number under 3. The Colts are not good. TEN isn't anything great either but division game at home I love TEN in this spot. I don't think Matt Ryan can do what he did last week and I don't think IND is a contender this year.

• NYG @ JAX -3, O/U 42

• • Big money on JAX so far with them getting 36% of the bets but 49% of the money
  • Thee is a system play here that favors JAX because you want to fade covering teams (NYG have covered 5 of 6 games). Problem is (in my opinion) the books have not adjusted to NYG and are suckering bettors in to this game.
  • I think the books are being super sharp here. They want public money on NYG +3, afterall the 5-1 Giants should be able to handle the 2-4 Jags. Usually this would be right and you would want to stay away from this game or take JAX -3 like the sharps will be doing this weekend. But there's one major thing the books have wrong in this game and is the reason why NYG will win this game (see below).
  • JAX plays in London next week. Teams the week before they play in London are 26-37-1 ATS including 1-3 ATS this season.
  • Something is wrong with Trevor Lawrence. He is not healthy. He cannot throw the ball deep. Two weeks ago they had a hail mary play where he was throwing from his own 40 and couldn't even get the ball to the 15 yard line. Last week they had a chance for a hail mary attempt yet opted to go for the lateral attempt. This makes me think the coaches know Lawrence is compromised deep. So now you're saying JAX has to run the ball and complete short passes (without zip on the ball) against this NYG defense to win. Goodluck. I'll take the Giants here and beat the books.

• TB @ CAR +11, O/U 40.5

• • The books are being sneaky again. They know the sharps will take +11
  • 48% of the bets and 56% of the money is on CAR +11
  • Sharp bettors are on CAR
  • Here's what's going on with this line and why the Sharps are on CAR +11. Last week CAR was +10 on the road against LAR. This line is saying TB is 3.5 points better than LAR because they are laying 11 on the road. Sharp bettors will spot this and say this is not right therefore the value is on CAR. Here's why they are wrong.
  • Books know the Sharps will think this yet they continue to move the line up. They want sharp money on CAR. The books know it's more likely TB blows out CAR in this spot.
  • TB has not looked good offensively this season. No better spot to get right than facing CAR who has a lot of lockerroom issues right now.
  • TB's defense is the best thing about their team right now. They are playing lights out. Huge advantage against CAR who is starting 5TH STRING QB!!! TB is going to roll in this game. I know it's a lot of points but don't be afraid to lay the points with TB this week

• GB @ WAS +5, O/U 41.5

• • Sharp bettors on WAS
  • Big money on WAS with them getting 52% of the bets but 82% of the money
  • Wentz is out for WAS but Heinicke is in!
  • To me, this feels like a get right game of GB. They turn it around here and shut people up. GB wins this game by double digits.

• DET @ DAL -7.5, O/U 49

• • Death, taxes, and DET games going over
  • Big money on DET, 53% of the bets but 85% of the money
  • System bet favors DET by fading covering teams (DAL has covered 4-2 games this season)
  • NFL teams off a bye, on the road cover at a profitable rate (favors DET)
  • My thoughts, we predicted DET would struggle in NE. Not just because of Belichick but because they had played 3 games at home in a dome and were heading to an outside field. Now they head to DAL back in a dome. This team is scrappy and seems to stay in games. Dak is going to play in this game but how healthy is he? I like DET here and will be taking the points with them and betting the ML.

• ATL @ CIN -6, O/U 47.5

• • Sharp money on ATL. Why wouldn't their be? Sharps have bet them 6 weeks in a row and have cashed every week! (ATL on ly 6-0 ATS this season).
  • Actions App has experts on ATL
  • 55% of the bets on ATL but only 50% of the money on them
  • I personally don't have a play yet on this game. I need to research some more. Will update this later in the week.

• CLE @ BAL -6.5, O/U 45.5

• • Big money on BAL getting 53% of the bets but 70% of the money
  • CLE is one of the worst teams in the league against the run
  • BAL could easily be 6-0 but 4th quarter collapses have them at 3-3
  • I like BAL coming off a lose
  • Sharps say teams figure out BAL in the second half which is why they are collapsing this season. Thereore, division teams would have an advantage since they have since this offense mulitple times a season.
  • I lean towards BAL under 7 because I think their offense will be able to run all over CLE. Also, CLE is not good. Look at their games. They are overrated. But history between these teams say it's going to be close. I like the over because CLE should be able to run and score on BAL as well.
  • Harbaugh is 19-9 ATS against CLE in his career, including 2-0 last season.

• NYJ @ DEN -1, O/U 38

• • Jets getting 87% of the bets and 85% of the money
  • Actions experts are on NYJ
  • Sharp bettors on DEN
  • This game feels weird to me. DEN is probably the right side. Jets coming off a huge win in GB and now going on the road again to DEN where they have a nasty defense.
  • DEN's lockerroom is gone. Gordon and Judy both want to be traded. No one likes Russ.
  • No play yet, more to come later in the week.

• HOU @ LV -7, O/U 45.5

• • Big money on HOU getting 36% of the bets but 88% of the money
  • LV is one of the best 1-4 teams in the NFL
  • Both teams coming off a bye week
  • People think teams coming off a bye would benefit the home team, but historically home teams there is no improvement whereas road teams off a bye cover at a profitable rate
  • I can only look HOU. Although I think LV is the better team they have not proven they are a competent team this year and I would not be surprised if HOU won this game outright. I would probably play this either HOU ML or LV -7.

• SEA @ LAC -6, O/U 51

• • SEA has the best passing offense in the league
  • LAC is not healthy on defense
  • LAC is going on a bye next week and teams at home going on a bye the following week is a profitbale bet.
  • Sharp money on SEA
  • 85% on SEA +6 with 95% of the money on SEA +6
  • To me, this game is going to be a shootout. I think LAC covers but that's not an official bet yet. The over is high in this one but I like it. Def would tease the over and LAC to win.
  • UPDATE!!! I LOVE AND BET LAC -5 HERE'S WHY
    • Teams who have a bye the following week (LAC has a bye next week), who are favored by 4 or more (LAC -5), were not a road dog the week before (LAC was home), and are not undefeated are 43-9 ATS since 2012! What a monster stat and it makes a lot of sense on why this very detailed scenario covers.

• KC @ SF +2.5, O/U 48.5

• • Toal feels weird. Seems high for a SF game yet feels low for a KC game.
  • Sharp money on SF
  • 82% of the bets are on KC -2.5 and 78% of the money
  • Public reacting to KC off a loss and SF losing outright ot ATL
  • To me, SF is probably the right side. I will have to see with the inury report. I hate fading Andy Reid off a loss but SF seems to be soured by the public and are at home.
  • No play yet for me

• PIT @ MIA -7, O/U 45

• • Tua is back for MIA
  • Sharp money on PIT +7
  • Big money on MIA -7, 61% of the bets but 74% of the money
  • This game comes down to how you feel about Tua. I thihk people are overreacting to his concussion. The Dolphins were super cautious about bringing him back which obviously they had to be because of how they handle him in the first place. But look at NFL history. People came back in the same game on a concussion and played great. I don't think Tua will be compromised, but he is a high risk for another injury in this game.
  • I would lean towards MIA -7 but will wait to make a play

• CHI @ NE -7.5, O/U 40

• • Sharp money on NE
  • Big money on CHI. 22% of the bets but 48% of the money
  • Since this is my team I feel I have a better view on this game. Belichick can take out what you are best at offensively. If you have only on strength you are screwed. CHI can only run the ball. Bill will make Fields throw. Fields can't throw. NE has a great secondary and defense this year. Don't over think this play. NE is going to embarrass CHI this week.

• OFFICIAL PICKS:

• AZ ML ✅
• LAC -5 (FAVORITE PLAY OF THE WEEKEND)❌
• DET +7❌
• DET ML +275❌
• NYG +3✅
• NYG ML +145✅
• TEN -2✅
• BAL -6.5❌
• TB -13❌
• GB -5❌
• HOU +7❌
• HOU ML +250❌
• MIA -7❌

• TEASERS:

• • 7 POINT -130, AZ +4.5 / OVER 37 ✅
  • 7 point 8 leg pays +1000
    • DET +14 / NYG +10 / TEN +5 / TB -6 / GB +2 / LAC +2 / MIA PK / NE -2❌
  • BAL -0.5 / LAC +1 / NE -2.5 +155❌
  • TEN +3.5 / GB +1.5 / LAC +1 +155❌
  • DET +13.5 / NYG +10 / LAC +2 +135❌
  • TB -7 / CIN -0.5 / NE -2.5 +155❌

• ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:

• A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.

https://pregame.com/game-center

• Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!

https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/

• Our friends over at TheOddsBreakers are another good source of information and there's no one better than Chris Farley when it comes to NFL over there. This man placed 5th last year in the Circa Millions contest. Check him out.

https://theoddsbreakers.com/author/farleybetsgmail-com/

• Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!

https://sportspicks.locals.com/

• SUPER CONTEST PICKS:

We are hanging in there but need a big week. Luckily we feel very confident this will be a 5-0 week for us.