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NFL Week 8 Report Card

Up 21 units on the season

October 26, 2022

OPENING RANT:
- Terrible week for me in week 7. These things happen during the season but it never feels good. I use it as motivation for this week and am doing a little extra homework to lock in these picks.
- It's been a weird NFL season where we are seeing so many upsets or teams play great one week and terrible the next. I'm going to focus more on this and see if it's sustainable or if we will be regressing to the norm anytime soon.
- One thing that I was thinking about doing this week but didn't was taking underdogs and doing a round robin with them on the ML. Imgaine if you did that with CAR, NYG, CHI and others it would have been a great ROI even with betting $1 on each pick. I'll explain more in a video this week about this and will let you know if I decide to do it this week as well.
- There's a reason why 99% of people lose money betting on sports in the long run. It's a grind! And you will have bad weeks. But that's why we have this community to help each other through the tough times and help each other bounce back. Y'all are awesome and I appreciate everyone who participates here.

HERE'S WHAT I HAVE FOR NOW. REMEMBER I UPDATE THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON SO MAKE SURE YOU CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATED STATS, TRENDS, AND PICKS.

PICK'EM CONTEST PICKS:

THIS IS ONLY FOR PICK'EM PLAYS, DOES NOT MEAN I RECOMMEND BETTING THESE PICKS. SUBJECT TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEK SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE KICKOFF.

TB❌

DEN✅

PHI✅

NE✅

CAR❌

NO✅

DAL✅

MIA✅

AZ❌

TEN✅

IND❌

SF✅

NYG❌

BUF✅

CIN❌

NFL TRENDS:

- Underdogs are 43-64-1 straight up, meaning a $100 bettor would be up +$1,465, and they’re 62-45-1 against the spread. The biggest advantage has been with road underdogs and bigger-sized dogs:
  - Road underdogs this season: 36-26 ATS
  - Underdogs of over a FG (3 pts) this season: 44-22 ATS
- Best and worse teams against the spread and straight up
  - Best ATS: ATL 6-1, NYG 6-1
  - Worst ATS: 2-5 (GB, CAR, NO, JAX, DEN, TB)
  - Best SU: NYG: 6-1 (+$952), NYJ: 5-2 (+$680)
  - Worst SU: NO: 2-5 (-$413), DET: 1-5 (-$405)

THE GAMES:

BAL @ TB +1.5, O/U 45

- TB coming off back to back embarrassing losses to PIT and CAR. BAL with a nice win against CLE last week.
- TB's defense is suppose to be strong against the run yet gave up 173 to the CMCless Panthers. Meanwhile BAL is a strong running team.
- Early sharp money coming in on BAL, public also on BAL
- 3 Action Network Experts are on TB
- Weather will be 75 with 6mph winds
- TB 1-4 SU last 5 games and 0-5 ATS
- BAL 3-2 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- If you are leaning towards TB in this game and think they bounce back, I would look to bet props instead of the game because they can have a good game but still lose in the end. So look Brady props over which should be set at a good value with how poor he has been playing.

DEN @ JAX -3, O/U 39

- GAME BEING PLAYED IN LONDON (TRENDS)
  - Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS.
    In 35 international games, favorites are 27-8-1 SU, 23-13 ATS.
    At Wembley Stadium, favorites are 17-5-1 SU, 14-9 ATS
    Both international games in 2022 have gone over the total.
    The under has hit in the alst three Jaguars games in London
- Big money on DEN, 45% of the bets but 77% of the money (as of Monday night and according to the action network).
- JAX 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- The total has gone OVER in 3 of JAX's last 5 games
- DEN 1-4 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS
- DEN 1-2 ATS in road games this season
- The OVER is 1-4 in DEN's last 5 games
- The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG heading overseas. Struggling offenses don’t perform well in the international series. Teams scoring 17 PPG or less are 3-12 ATS overseas, failing to cover by 6.5 PPG.
- The Jaguars are now 0-5 straight up as favorites since 2020, failing to cover the spread by 16.8 PPG. Since 2020, all other NFL teams have a cover as a favorite.
- For some reason the sharps keep loving JAX. Probably because this is a London game. But I don't see it. If DEN's defense shows up I think they win this game.

PIT @ PHI -10.5, O/U 43.5

- Sharp money on PIT and big money on PIT, 54% of bets with 73% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
- This line opened PIT +3.5 (beginning of season) and now is PIT +10.5 which may be an over adjustment
- Eagles at home off a bye last 20 years: 12-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS
- Eagles are 3-0 ATS at home this year (10-4-1 ATS last 15 home games)
- The over is 7-1 in the last 8 Eagles home games
- PHI is 6-0 ATS in the 1H this season. They get a big lead and sit on it in the second half.
- PHI 5-0 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
- PIT 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- An undefeated team off a bye playing at home is 14-2 ATS at this point in the season
- As long as PHI is undefeated they will be the talk of sports media and all the pressure will be on them. PIT was just down in MIA for SNF and now will be on another road game here, although short travel.
- Double digits feels like a lot to me for this PIT defense. I think if you like them you should take them now as we might see this line move down to -9.5 here soon.

NE @ NYJ +2, O/U 41

- Sharp bettors on NYJ, big money on NE with 78% of the bets but 92% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
- NYJ 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
- NE 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- Bill Belichick has faced the Jets 46 times as a head coach. He is 35-11 SU and 25-19-2 ATS
- Patriots beaten the Jets 12 times in a row dating back to 2015 (8-4 ATS). Jets last win: Dec. 27, 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick against Tom Brady
- Belichick is 33-10 SU and 28-15-1 ATS on short rest over the last 20 years
- Belichick is 36-11 SU and 39-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season
- Could this be a flat spot for the Jets? Seems hard to believe since they always get up for the Patriots but they are coming home after traveling to GB and DEN winning in both games as dogs. I think we may see a tired Jets team in the second half of this game.

CAR @ ATL -4.5, O/U 42

- Sharp bettors on CAR, big money on ATL getting 53% of the bets but 71% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
- Action Network has 4 experts taking ATL
- Teams are 21-18 SU and 24-14-1 ATS after facing the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. The Panthers were 2-1 SU/ATS, within one score in all three games
- Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 17-49 SU and 27-36-3 ATS when listed as an underdog in their next game
- Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 2-18 SU, 8-11-1 ATS when listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent in their next game
- The Panthers are 1-28 SU and 5-24 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020
- Marcus Mariota is 9-4 SU but just 3-10 ATS as a favorite of over a FG
- ATL finally lost ATS last week (was only undefeated team ATS left)
- ATL 3-2 SU last 5 games 4-1 ATS
- CAR 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- Huge win for CAR this week taking down TB as their team seems to be getting traded away and everyone is calling them the worst team in the league. Feels like a big let down game for them going on the road against a scrappy ATL team.

LV @ NO +2, O/U 48.5

- Money is coming in on LV (60%)
- Saints on extended rest: 13-4 SU, 7-10 ATS since 2017
- Raiders current streaks: 3 straight covers, 4 straight overs.
- The Saints and Raiders have both gone over the total in 4 straight games entering this contest. Just the 3rd time that’s happened in the last decade (all 3 games went over)
- Saints games are going over the total by 10.6 PPG, the highest margin in the NFL.
- Carr is 17-26-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the 2nd-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (109 of 110 QBs)
- Carr is 13-7-1 ATS facing a team coming off extended rest (5th of 112 QBs since he was drafted)
- NO 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- LV 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- To me this feels like the public is going to be backing LV after getting a W last week, but ultimately LV is going to do what they always do and let everyone down.

CHI @ DAL -10.5, O/U 42.5

- 70% of the tickets are coming in on CHI but only 54% of the money
- Bears coming off an impressive/shocking win against NE in Foxborough and now has to go on the road again down to DAL
- The last six Cowboys home games have gone under the total.
- The Bears are at a distinct disadvantage this week. Teams who play back-to-back road games with the second game on short rest on a Sunday are 15-26 SU and 17-23-1 ATS in the last 20 years.
- The Bears are 1-6 against the first half spread this season.
- The Bears just beat the Patriots in New England. Teams coming off a game vs. the Patriots, playing on short rest, are 14-21 SU, the least profitable previous opponent on the moneyline. When that team plays on the road in their next game? 3-12 SU.
- Since the start of last season, the Cowboys (18-7 ATS) are the most profitable team against the spread.
- Spread opened DAL -10.5 and now has moved to DAL -9.5
- DAL 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
- CHI 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- Dak as a 7+ point favorite at home is 7-2 ATS
- To me this game feels like anything under 10 you have to look DAL. I don't love what I saw from them this week but I think people will be overreacting to CHI and the back to back road trips is not going to be in CHI's favor.

MIA @ DET +3, O/U 50.5

- Sharp money and big money coming in on DET
- Two Action Network Experts on DET and 1 on MIA
- DET 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- DET two straight games going under (not what we normally see from DET)
- MIA 2-3 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS.
- MIA games are in 1-4 to the UNDER in their last 5 games
- The over is 3-0 this season for Lions' home games and 19-8 since 2019
- Jared Goff is 1-7-1 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. the AFC since 2020
- Tua Tagovailoa vs. teams allowing 28+ PPG: 1-5 ATS
- Tua vs. teams with 33% or less win pct: 3-6 ATS
- DET's first 4 games of the season averaged 35 points per game. DET's last 2 games they are averaging 3 points per game. You don't go from scoring that many points to so few without these teams figuring out DET's offensive.
- I really want to fade DET here because I feel they are still being over priced by sharps. MIA's offense seems to be working towards getting back to what we saw at the beginning of the season. Sharps seem to always be on DET so I don't take much credit in that. DET looking bad last two games makes me nervous to fade them because this would be the game I would typically expect them to bounce back.
- A pick a do like and am waiting to see where the odds are at when it comes out is Tua to throw an interception. We just saw in his first game back where he threw what could have been 4 INTs but none were. He clearly isn't fully back or isn't as accurate as he was. Or maybe just isn't afraid to throw it into a tight window. Either way I think there's a good chance we see an INT from Tua.

AZ @ MIN -3.5, O/U 49

- Sharp bettors on AZ and 56% of the money
- Viking coming off a bye
- AZ coming off a TNF win against the Saints
- 1 Action Network expert is on MIN
- MIN 4-1 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS
- AZ 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for AZ
- Kyler off a SU win: 14-11 SU, 14-10-1 ATS
- Kyler by time zone: PST/MST: 15-20-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-4 ATS
- The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in the first half this season
- The under is 20-7 in Kyler Murray road starts, going under by 3.2 PPG (under in last six road games)
- Kirk Cousins covers the spread at a near 70% rate when home and playing at 1PM EST
- Cousins is 2-5 ATS off a bye and 7-18 ATS after extended rest (8 days or more off)
- Murray as an underdog is 19-10-2 ATS
- AZ is the right side here especially at +3.5 which I would bet now because this will move to 3. Public will be on MIN looking at their 5-1 record and seeing how poorly AZ has played this season. AZ is the more desperate team needing a win to keep their season alive while MIN can afford a loss and might be a little flat coming off of the bye.

TEN @ HOU +2, O/U 40.5

- Sharp bettors on HOU
- HOU getting 33% of the bets but 51% of the money
- The reason the line is only TEN -2 is it looks like Ryan Tannehill is dealing with an ankle injury and might not be able to play
- Titans and Ryan Tannehill have won and covered four straight games
- Tannehill is 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. a divisional opponent in his career
- Mike Vrabel and Tannehill are 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS as a duo vs. AFC South
- Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas are 6-15 ATS in their next game. These teams have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games
- HOU 1-4 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- TEN 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
- TEN took control of the division last week beating the Colts for the second time this season
- I'll need to wait and see the injury report for both teams before giving a pick in this game

WAS @ IND -3, O/U 40

- Sharp action on WAS
- 1 Action Network expert is on the UNDER
- Colts making a QB change to Sam Ehlinger
- IND 3-2 SU in last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- WAS 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- The UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for both WAS and IND
- he Colts are now 0-7 against the first half spread this season and have lost nine straight 1H ATS dating back to last year
- Washington turns to Taylor Heinicke again this week with Carson Wentz still hurt. Washington backup QBs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games since 2019
- I'm leaning towards IND in this game and would stay away from the total (if anything tease the over). We have seen several times this season when there's QB change the offense seems to show up (look at WAS last week).

SF @ LAR +2, O/U 42.5

- Sharp action on LAR but big money on SF
- 1 Action Network expert is on SF ML
- LAR 3-2 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- 4 straight LAR games have gone under
- SF 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
- Jimmy Garoppolo excels against teams .500 or better: 21-11 SU/ATS. Since his first start in 2017, he’s the second-most profitable QB vs. .500 or better opponents
- The 49ers are 37-19 straight up and 31-24-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QBs in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS
- Jimmy G vs. the Rams: 7-1 SU/ATS (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in regular season)
- McVay and Stafford are 0-2 ATS off a bye week as a duo (including playoffs)
- SF seems to own LAR in this matchup. I have a hard time seeing SF losing 3 games straight. The running game should contiue to have success against LAR with CMC in the backfield now.

NYG @ SEA +3, O/U 45.5

- Big money on SEA, 57% of the tickets and 69% of the money
- The Giants keep coving and winning and an underdog this season
- SEA 3-2 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the last 5 SEA games
- NYG 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
- The Giants played on road in Eastern time last week and continue their road trip west to face the Seahawks. Teams to go from Eastern to Pacific on the road are just 14-15 SU but 9-19-1 ATS since 2019
- Teams winning 80%+ of their games entering their eighth game are 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS when listed as the underdog
- Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS as underdog | 6-6 ATS as favorite
- Seahawks are 6-1 against the first half spread this season
- Giants in a terrible travel spot having to go down to JAX last week and now across country to SEA.
- Giants have a bye next week and teams on the road who have a bye the following week have been successful ATS last 10 years.
- I love the Giants in this game and will have more on this later.

GB @ BUF -10.5, O/U 47.5

- Favorites of a TD or more in primetime coming off a bye week are 16-3 SU and 10-7-2 ATS in the regular season over the last 20 years
- Josh Allen primetime: 10-3 SU/ATS, covering by 9.6 PPG
- Allen is 41-27 ATS since first start in 2018, most profitable QB in the NFL
- Allen is 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS off a bye week.
- Rodgers in primetime: 44-25 SU, 40-27-2 ATS
- Rodgers is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS at night since 2020
- Since 2017, Rodgers is 7-9 SU, 4-12 ATS in EST
- Rodgers has won his last four games at night SU as an underdog

CIN @ CLE +3.5, O/U 47.5

- Joe Burrow is 19-17-1 SU and 24-13 ATS in his NFL career
- Joe Burrow has played four games at night. He is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 0-2 SU in primetime on the road
- In Burrow’s career, he is 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. the Browns
- The Bengals are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games, including covering five consecutive games. Not to mention, Burrow is 12-2 ATS in his last 14 starts
- Brissett on MNF: 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG
- Brissett has played on extended rest as a dog five times: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS
- The Browns are 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS vs. the AFC North under Kevin Stefanski

OFFICIAL PICKS:

- BAL 1H ML -124❌
- TB +1.5❌
- Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / NE +3.5✅
- Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / GB-BUF o41.5✅
- Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / CAR +10✅
- Teaser 6 point -110: TB +7.5 / HOU +8.5✅
- Teaser 6 point -110: TB +7.5 / SF +4.5✅
- 6.5 points teaser +135: TB +8.5 / DEN +9 / ARI +10✅
- 3 leg ML parlay +1277: DEN / ARI / NYG❌
- DEN +2.5✅
- DEN ML +125✅
- DAL -9✅
- LV -1❌
- CAR +4✅
- CAR ML +175❌
- PHI -10.5✅
- MIA -3.5✅
- AZ +3.5❌
- AZ ML +162❌
- NE -2.5✅
- NE ML -140✅
- NYG +3❌
- NYG ML +135❌
- SF -1✅
- BUF -10❌
- BUF/GB over 47.5❌

TEASER POOL

HERE'S A LIST OF TEASER LEGS THAT I LIKE AND WOULD PLAY IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR ONE. MIX AND MATCH THESE AS YOU LIKE.

- DEN +8✅
- DAL -3✅
- NO +7✅
- CAR +10✅
- PHI -4.5✅
- MIA +2.5✅
- AZ +9.5✅
- NE +3.5✅
- NYG +9❌
- GB/BUF OVER 41.5✅

ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:

A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.

https://pregame.com/game-center

Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!

https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/

Action Nework is a great site for beginners and experts. I use them in my videos and to make this report each week.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/sharp-report

Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!

https://sportspicks.locals.com/

SUPER CONTEST PICKS:

We are hanging in there but need a big week. Luckily we feel very confident this will be a 5-0 week for us.

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May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 10

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:19:50

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May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 9

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:18:06

Game On!@GameOnShow

May 03, 2025

Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 8

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:10:02

Game On!@GameOnShow

July 02, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Here's where the money is at in MLB today!

Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html

Game On!@GameOnShow

June 29, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Here's today's games!

Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html

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June 26, 2023

MLB Daily Betting Report

Rumble Link:
https://rumble.com/v2wg7ja-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-26-2023.html

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September 04, 2025

NFL Week 1 Teaser Pool

FOOTBALL IS BACK! Which means TEASERS ARE BACK! Those of you who haven’t followed me in the past will find out quickly teasers are my favorite and best things to bet. I take a unique approach when betting them. I do a lot of the things the ‘sharps’ would tell you not to do and don’t simply stick to the Advantage Teasers (aka Wong teasers). I also mainly bet 3 leg teasers. The key is to make sure you are at least getting +150 or better on a 3 leg teaser. What I also like to add to the mix is making sure 1 game is outside the play time of the other 2, that way I have an opportunity to hedge if I choose and create a middle.

Listed below is the pool of teaser options that I like and below that are the ones I bet.

PHI -2.5
PHI/DAL U54
LAC +9
PIT +3.5
CAR/JAX U53
NYG +12
CLE +11
LV +8.5
ATL +8
DEN -3
SF +3.5
GB +4
BAL/BUF O44.5

MY 3 LEG TEASERS

PHI -2.5 / LAC +9 / PIT +8.5 +150

PHI -2.5 / CLE +11 / SF +3.5 +155

LV +8.5 / CAR/JAX U53 / SF +3.5 +155

ATL +8 ...

Game On!@GameOnShow

September 03, 2025

NFL Week 1

NFL WEEK 1 BETTING CARD

SIDES + TOTALS + PARLAYS

PHI/DAL UNDER 47.5
LAC ML +150
NYJ 1H +0.5 / PIT ML (FOR THE GAME) +336
PIT/NYJ UNDER 38.5
JAX ML -190
NYG +6
NYG ML +215
CLE +5
NE/LV UNDER 44
ATL ML +115
SF -2.5
GB -2.5
BAL ML -115
MIN -2

PLAYER PROPS

AJ BROWN TD +160
CALEB WILLIAMS OVER 20.5 COMPLETIONS / UNDER 218.5 YARDS +425

SURVIVOR PICKS: PHI, JAX, AZ, DEN, PIT

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August 28, 2025

NCAA Pick + Live Stream Tonight

Hey I'll be live tonight streaming my auction draft. I'll be on camera this time. Making it Rumble Premium content.

Also, I'm on South Florida over on Kalshi.

275 contracts 34 cents buy price

Looking to sell if they get to 70 cents+ depending how the game goes.

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August 19, 2025

The Bengals Are WASTING Joe Burrow's Career!

It's silly to overreact to one game, especially a preseason game where teams are not at full potential. In the sports betting world you never want to react to a small sample size and instead focus on a trend or team that gives you the most relevant data points possible. But when the small sample size correlates with the long historical trend then IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!

That's EXACTLY what is happening with the Bengals. Last night's game was a pointless preseason game where the Bengals decided to play their starters for the first quarter. It was more of the same of what we saw last season. Burrow had to be a magician to make plays happen, the offensive line could not protect, and their defense couldn't stop a high school team from running on them.

But maybe Burrow is getting exactly what he deserves. Afterall, he took the big payday (which he deserves) and he advocated for the team to pay BOTH his WRs Chase and Higgins instead of spending more money on the offensive line or defense. Here's the current contract for just 3 players on the Bengals:

Burrow: 5 years, $275 million, $219 million guaranteed

Chase: 4 years, $161 million, $112 million guaranteed

Higgins: 4 years, $115 million, $60 million guaranteed

That's $124 million per year for 3 players. The salary cap for the 25 season is $279 million and the Bengals are spending roughly 44% of their cap space on 3 players. Now we all know the cap goes up every year but still you will be spending over a third of your cap on 3 players for the next 4 years.

THE BENGALS NEED TO OPEN THE CHECKBOOK AND START SPENDING MONEY ON OFFENSIVE LINE AND THEIR DEFENSE OR TRADE AWAY BURROW!

The last part of that is not going to happen but should be seriously considered! They are wasting his career and Burrow may go down in the history books as the next Dan Mario. Really good but never had enough around him to win the big game that matters.

What can the Bengals do now? First, they can take care of this Trey Hendrickson situation. Either pay the man or trade him away for draft capital. If this season ends up being a disaster like last season (as I predict) and they are able to secure extra draft pick(s), they will be set up to get one of the top linemen in next year's draft.

Or just pay the man. Normally I would say 1 player does not make a difference on the defense overall, but here's the numbers of when Hendrickson is on the field and when he's not:

#32 pressure rate

#32 completion rate alowed

#32 success rate alowed

#32 passer rating alowed

But when Hendrickson plays, the Bengals pass defense ranks top 12 in each of those categories.

Hendrickson also had back to back 17.5 sack seasons. Only other players to do this in NFL history is JJ Watt and Reggie White. He has 35 sacks the last 2 seasons and no other Bengals has more than 8.

PAY THE MAN OR GET DRAFT PICKS TO GET MUCH NEEDED HELP FOR YOU OFFENSIVE LINE AND QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR QB!

Let’s look at Cincy’s offensive line ranking in pass block win rate by year:

2021: #30

2022: #30

2023: #27

2024: #32

Not good.

For 2025 the Bengals rank 23rd in spending on their offensive line with $41.9 million. They are paying as much for the whole offensive line as they are for 1 WR.

Make it make sense.

Bottom line, Bengals need to get serious about building their team. DO NOT WASTE YOUR GENERATIONAL QB! Start addressing the oline, find a way to get your defense to be average, and draft better. Or you may as well trade Burrow and continue to be one of the biggest jokes of the league.

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February 07, 2025

Super Bowl Betting Card

SUPER BOWL BETTING CARD

Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!

I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.

My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.

WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK

STRAIGHT BETS

Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
- This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
1Q UNDER 9.5
GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
1Q EXACT SCORE:
- KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
- KC 3 PHI 3 +2500

PARLAYS

+2600
- MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
- BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
- WORTHY TD
- SMITH TD
PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
- If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.

PROPS

COIN TOSS: HEADS -101
EAGLES ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY: YES +170
KICK TO DONK OFF UPRIGHT: YES +550

LONGSHOTS

BUTKER MVP +10000
TRIPLE CROWN: MAHOMES / WORTHY / HURTS +5000

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Game On!@GameOnShow

January 15, 2025

NFL Playoffs Divisional Round Stats, Trends, and Best Bets!

NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND STATS, TRENDS, BEST BETS!

We are down to 8! Let's dive into each of these games breaking down the stats and trends. Then I'll give you my thoughts and best bets! Check back in throughout the week for my updated picks because I'm going to try and get the info out to you ASAP and as I place bets I will update this article with my picks.

GENERAL PREVIEW

Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970.
The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1. The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
Lions/Commanders total is 55.5. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and ChiefS, Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
Both Saturday games have bIG spreads. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) have won 18 consecutive playoff games outright dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs; the last loss came with the Ravens against the Titans. That 18-game streak is the longest streak at any point in the Super Bowl era.
If Texans-Chiefs closes under 43.5, it would be the lowest over/under for any playoff game with Patrick Mahomes.
Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%). When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET).
Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.
We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round. On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.
Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser. Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
In his coaching career, Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

Texans at Chiefs (-9) | Total: 41.5

The over/under in Chiefs/Texans is 41.5. Of Mahomes’ 18 career playoff games, this would be his lowest total, his previous low was 43.5 against the Dolphins last year. Of his 69 career home starts, this would be his 2nd-lowest total ever behind Christmas of last year against the Raiders at 40.5, a game KC lost.
Travis Kelce is 343 receiving yards away from breaking Jerry Rice's all time playoff record. He is also 3 TDs away from tying Jerry's all time playoff TD record.
Kelce has 5+ receptions in 14 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak by any player since the merger.
Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games is 28-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Mahomes is 31-7 SU, 19-18-1 ATS playing on extended rest during the season and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 37-8 SU and 24-20-1 ATS on extended rest.
If you focus on extreme prep/rest, which would be 13+ days, Mahomes is 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS, including those Week 1 games.
On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 28-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round of the playoffs (8-0)
Mahomes is 22-32-3 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career, including 0-5-1 ATS this season. In those six games this year as a 7+ pt favorite, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU.
The Texans' defense has been a great unit this year and that was no different last week vs. the Chargers. Houston is 10th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs, 10th vs. #3 WRs, and they are 5th vs. TEs.
The Houston Texans — a team playing in a dome — will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30-degree weather for the playoffs 9 times. Those teams are 2-7 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
C.J. Stroud has made 35 career starts in the NFL. He’s 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 13-3 in a 6-point teaser.
Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 10-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS when listed as an underdog.

COMMANDERS AT LIONS (-9.5) | TOTAL: 55

The over/under will probably be one of the bigger stories in betting this week. It opened at 54.5 and is up to 55.5/56 in the market.The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
We’ve seen 17 over/under’s in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more, they are 9-8 to the over all-time, but just 4-7 to the over since 2013-14, going under the total by 7.1 PPG. If you break it down by indoors vs. outdoors, 5-2 to the over indoors and 6-1 to the under outdoors.
In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 19-5 (79%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
Commanders trailed the Bucs entering the 4th quarter last week and even had a last-minute drive while tied to win it. Teams to win after trailing entering the 4th quarter in a playoff game are just 11-25 SU since 2001.
Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season, including 6-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 10-0 SU as favorites in primetime, winning by over 10 PPG, and in games starting at 4p ET or later, they are 15-1 SU under Campbell, with their one loss coming to the Bills this season.
Lions are coming off the best 3-year stretch (2022-24, 36-14-1 ATS) and the best 4-year stretch (2021-24, 47-20-1 ATS) in the Super Bowl era.
Lions went 8-0 SU on the road this season, both their losses coming at home to the Bills and Buccaneers.
As a duo, Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when facing teams scoring 24 PPG or more on the season – Detroit’s two ATS losses have come to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
Washington played the perfect game last week, with zero punts. Teams with 2 punts or less in their last playoff game, who are 6+ pt dogs the next week are 0-8 SU since 2002.
Commanders are in a tough spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 45-72 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 5-13 SU the last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-60 SU (26%), including 1-12 SU in the last 13 games in this spot.

RAMS AT EAGLES (-6) | TOTAL: 44

Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 35-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 18-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
In Hurts’ career, he is 27-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 15-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU, and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 24-12 in those quarters in the second half.
It is expected to be around 35 degrees with some rain or snow and light wind in the forecast. Stafford has started just one game in 40-degree or colder temperatures outdoors over the last three years – earlier this season at the Jets. Rams scored 19 pts, and won 19-9 in New York.
We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
In franchise history, the Eagles have never lost at home in the Divisional Round. They are 6-0 SU, covering the spread in 5 of those games.
Eagles are streaking entering this NFC Divisional Round. They’ve won three in a row both SU and ATS, the only team from the Wild Card round, on normal rest or less, playing this week. Teams on such a streak in the playoffs last decade are just 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS, with the under 16-6 in those games.
Not just the streak, Philly’s defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 13 pts or less in three straight games entering this playoff game. Last 20 years, we’ve seen just eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight. Those teams went 2-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their playoff game. The last three teams scored a total of 10 combined pts in their games (‘21 BAL, ‘16 HOU, ‘15 IND).
In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
Rams started the season 1-4 SU and are now a win away from the NFC Championship game. Rams are the 17th team to start 1-4 SU or worse and make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, and none made it to the Super Bowl.
In his coaching career, he’s 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

RAVENS AT BILLS (+1) | TOTAL: 51.5

This is the 5th time Lamar Jackson has faced Josh Allen. Baltimore is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The spread has only closed below 3 in one of their games, the 2020-21 playoff game won by the Bills in Buffalo.
As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 30-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
If Lamar closes as an underdog, he is 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in that role, including 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As a dog, Lamar is covering the spread by 7.4 PPG.
Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season. Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win percentage of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Three of the four matchups this week are rematches of games already played this season: Chiefs/Texans, Eagles/Rams, Bills/Ravens. Last decade in the playoffs, teams who played rematches in the same season, the team who won the previous game is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS in the rematch. For Baltimore, teams to win by 20+ pts in that first game are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last decade.
Ravens downed the Steelers last week. The week after facing the Steelers, Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS over the last two seasons, including 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after facing Pittsburgh.
The Ravens are 27-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive now just twice – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest, and last week vs. Steelers.
Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
Josh Allen faces a much-improved Ravens defense. Ravens have allowed only 20.8 PPG this season and allowed just 14 points in the Wild Card Round. Allen vs. teams allowing less than 21 PPG is 27-12-1 ATS (69%).
When opponents score 21 pts or more against the Bills, Buffalo is just 4-22 ATS since 2022, which is the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. During that same span, the Ravens are 9-12-2 ATS in that spot, the 3rd-best ATS mark in the NFL.
The Bills are an NFL-best 14-4 to the over on their team total this season. This includes going 8-1 to the over at home.

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