• OPENING RANT:
  • Terrible week for me in week 7. These things happen during the season but it never feels good. I use it as motivation for this week and am doing a little extra homework to lock in these picks.
  • It's been a weird NFL season where we are seeing so many upsets or teams play great one week and terrible the next. I'm going to focus more on this and see if it's sustainable or if we will be regressing to the norm anytime soon.
  • One thing that I was thinking about doing this week but didn't was taking underdogs and doing a round robin with them on the ML. Imgaine if you did that with CAR, NYG, CHI and others it would have been a great ROI even with betting $1 on each pick. I'll explain more in a video this week about this and will let you know if I decide to do it this week as well.
  • There's a reason why 99% of people lose money betting on sports in the long run. It's a grind! And you will have bad weeks. But that's why we have this community to help each other through the tough times and help each other bounce back. Y'all are awesome and I appreciate everyone who participates here.

HERE'S WHAT I HAVE FOR NOW. REMEMBER I UPDATE THIS AS THE WEEK GOES ON SO MAKE SURE YOU CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATED STATS, TRENDS, AND PICKS.

Become a Supporter

• PICK'EM CONTEST PICKS:

THIS IS ONLY FOR PICK'EM PLAYS, DOES NOT MEAN I RECOMMEND BETTING THESE PICKS. SUBJECT TO CHANGE DURING THE WEEK SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE KICKOFF.

TB❌

DEN✅

PHI✅

NE✅

CAR❌

NO✅

DAL✅

MIA✅

AZ❌

TEN✅

IND❌

SF✅

NYG❌

BUF✅

CIN❌

• NFL TRENDS:

• • Underdogs are 43-64-1 straight up, meaning a $100 bettor would be up +$1,465, and they’re 62-45-1 against the spread. The biggest advantage has been with road underdogs and bigger-sized dogs:
    • Road underdogs this season: 36-26 ATS
    • Underdogs of over a FG (3 pts) this season: 44-22 ATS
•  
  • Best and worse teams against the spread and straight up
    • Best ATS: ATL 6-1, NYG 6-1
    • Worst ATS: 2-5 (GB, CAR, NO, JAX, DEN, TB)
    • Best SU: NYG: 6-1 (+$952), NYJ: 5-2 (+$680)

    • Worst SU: NO: 2-5 (-$413), DET: 1-5 (-$405)

• THE GAMES:

• BAL @ TB +1.5, O/U 45

• • TB coming off back to back embarrassing losses to PIT and CAR. BAL with a nice win against CLE last week.
  • TB's defense is suppose to be strong against the run yet gave up 173 to the CMCless Panthers. Meanwhile BAL is a strong running team.
  • Early sharp money coming in on BAL, public also on BAL
  • 3 Action Network Experts are on TB
  • Weather will be 75 with 6mph winds
  • TB 1-4 SU last 5 games and 0-5 ATS
  • BAL 3-2 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • If you are leaning towards TB in this game and think they bounce back, I would look to bet props instead of the game because they can have a good game but still lose in the end. So look Brady props over which should be set at a good value with how poor he has been playing.

• DEN @ JAX -3, O/U 39

• • GAME BEING PLAYED IN LONDON (TRENDS)
    • Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-3 SU, 12-7 ATS.
      In 35 international games, favorites are 27-8-1 SU, 23-13 ATS.
      At Wembley Stadium, favorites are 17-5-1 SU, 14-9 ATS
      Both international games in 2022 have gone over the total.
      The under has hit in the alst three Jaguars games in London
  • Big money on DEN, 45% of the bets but 77% of the money (as of Monday night and according to the action network).
  • JAX 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • The total has gone OVER in 3 of JAX's last 5 games
  • DEN 1-4 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS
  • DEN 1-2 ATS in road games this season
  • The OVER is 1-4 in DEN's last 5 games
  • The Broncos are averaging 14.3 PPG heading overseas. Struggling offenses don’t perform well in the international series. Teams scoring 17 PPG or less are 3-12 ATS overseas, failing to cover by 6.5 PPG.
  • The Jaguars are now 0-5 straight up as favorites since 2020, failing to cover the spread by 16.8 PPG. Since 2020, all other NFL teams have a cover as a favorite.
  • For some reason the sharps keep loving JAX. Probably because this is a London game. But I don't see it. If DEN's defense shows up I think they win this game.

• PIT @ PHI -10.5, O/U 43.5

• • Sharp money on PIT and big money on PIT, 54% of bets with 73% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
  • This line opened PIT +3.5 (beginning of season) and now is PIT +10.5 which may be an over adjustment
  • Eagles at home off a bye last 20 years: 12-3 SU, 7-7-1 ATS
  • Eagles are 3-0 ATS at home this year (10-4-1 ATS last 15 home games)
  • The over is 7-1 in the last 8 Eagles home games
  • PHI is 6-0 ATS in the 1H this season. They get a big lead and sit on it in the second half.
  • PHI 5-0 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
  • PIT 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • An undefeated team off a bye playing at home is 14-2 ATS at this point in the season
  • As long as PHI is undefeated they will be the talk of sports media and all the pressure will be on them. PIT was just down in MIA for SNF and now will be on another road game here, although short travel. 
  • Double digits feels like a lot to me for this PIT defense. I think if you like them you should take them now as we might see this line move down to -9.5 here soon.

• NE @ NYJ +2, O/U 41

• • Sharp bettors on NYJ, big money on NE with 78% of the bets but 92% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
  • NYJ 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
  • NE 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • Bill Belichick has faced the Jets 46 times as a head coach. He is 35-11 SU and 25-19-2 ATS
  • Patriots beaten the Jets 12 times in a row dating back to 2015 (8-4 ATS). Jets last win: Dec. 27, 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick against Tom Brady

  • Belichick is 33-10 SU and 28-15-1 ATS on short rest over the last 20 years

  • Belichick is 36-11 SU and 39-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season
  • Could this be a flat spot for the Jets? Seems hard to believe since they always get up for the Patriots but they are coming home after traveling to GB and DEN winning in both games as dogs. I think we may see a tired Jets team in the second half of this game.

• CAR @ ATL -4.5, O/U 42

• • Sharp bettors on CAR, big money on ATL getting 53% of the bets but 71% of the money (as of Monday night according to action network)
  • Action Network has 4 experts taking ATL
  • Teams are 21-18 SU and 24-14-1 ATS after facing the Bucs since Tom Brady arrived in 2020. The Panthers were 2-1 SU/ATS, within one score in all three games
  • Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 17-49 SU and 27-36-3 ATS when listed as an underdog in their next game
  • Teams coming off an upset as a double-digit underdog are just 2-18 SU, 8-11-1 ATS when listed as an underdog vs. a divisional opponent in their next game
  • The Panthers are 1-28 SU and 5-24 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more since 2020
  • Marcus Mariota is 9-4 SU but just 3-10 ATS as a favorite of over a FG
  • ATL finally lost ATS last week (was only undefeated team ATS left)
  • ATL 3-2 SU last 5 games 4-1 ATS
  • CAR 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • Huge win for CAR this week taking down TB as their team seems to be getting traded away and everyone is calling them the worst team in the league. Feels like a big let down game for them going on the road against a scrappy ATL team.

• LV @ NO +2, O/U 48.5

• • Money is coming in on LV (60%)
  • Saints on extended rest: 13-4 SU, 7-10 ATS since 2017
  • Raiders current streaks: 3 straight covers, 4 straight overs.
  • The Saints and Raiders have both gone over the total in 4 straight games entering this contest. Just the 3rd time that’s happened in the last decade (all 3 games went over)
  • Saints games are going over the total by 10.6 PPG, the highest margin in the NFL.
  • Carr is 17-26-1 ATS on the road since 2017, the 2nd-least profitable road QB ATS in that span (109 of 110 QBs)
  • Carr is 13-7-1 ATS facing a team coming off extended rest (5th of 112 QBs since he was drafted)
  • NO 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • LV 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • To me this feels like the public is going to be backing LV after getting a W last week, but ultimately LV is going to do what they always do and let everyone down.

• CHI @ DAL -10.5, O/U 42.5

• • 70% of the tickets are coming in on CHI but only 54% of the money
  • Bears coming off an impressive/shocking win against NE in Foxborough and now has to go on the road again down to DAL
  • The last six Cowboys home games have gone under the total.
  • The Bears are at a distinct disadvantage this week. Teams who play back-to-back road games with the second game on short rest on a Sunday are 15-26 SU and 17-23-1 ATS in the last 20 years.
  • The Bears are 1-6 against the first half spread this season.
  • The Bears just beat the Patriots in New England. Teams coming off a game vs. the Patriots, playing on short rest, are 14-21 SU, the least profitable previous opponent on the moneyline. When that team plays on the road in their next game? 3-12 SU.

  • Since the start of last season, the Cowboys (18-7 ATS) are the most profitable team against the spread.

  • Spread opened DAL -10.5 and now has moved to DAL -9.5 
  • DAL 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
  • CHI 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • Dak as a 7+ point favorite at home is 7-2 ATS
  • To me this game feels like anything under 10 you have to look DAL. I don't love what I saw from them this week but I think people will be overreacting to CHI and the back to back road trips is not going to be in CHI's favor.

• MIA @ DET +3, O/U 50.5

• • Sharp money and big money coming in on DET
  • Two Action Network Experts on DET and 1 on MIA
  • DET 1-4 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • DET two straight games going under (not what we normally see from DET)
  • MIA 2-3 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS.
  • MIA games are in 1-4 to the UNDER in their last 5 games
  • The over is 3-0 this season for Lions' home games and 19-8 since 2019
  • Jared Goff is 1-7-1 SU and 3-6 ATS vs. the AFC since 2020
  • Tua Tagovailoa vs. teams allowing 28+ PPG: 1-5 ATS
  • Tua vs. teams with 33% or less win pct: 3-6 ATS
  • DET's first 4 games of the season averaged 35 points per game. DET's last 2 games they are averaging 3 points per game. You don't go from scoring that many points to so few without these teams figuring out DET's offensive.
  • I really want to fade DET here because I feel they are still being over priced by sharps. MIA's offense seems to be working towards getting back to what we saw at the beginning of the season. Sharps seem to always be on DET so I don't take much credit in that. DET looking bad last two games makes me nervous to fade them because this would be the game I would typically expect them to bounce back.
  • A pick a do like and am waiting to see where the odds are at when it comes out is Tua to throw an interception. We just saw in his first game back where he threw what could have been 4 INTs but none were. He clearly isn't fully back or isn't as accurate as he was. Or maybe just isn't afraid to throw it into a tight window. Either way I think there's a good chance we see an INT from Tua.

• AZ @ MIN -3.5, O/U 49

• • Sharp bettors on AZ and 56% of the money
  • Viking coming off a bye
  • AZ coming off a TNF win against the Saints
  • 1 Action Network expert is on MIN
  • MIN 4-1 SU last 5 games and 1-4 ATS
  • AZ 2-3 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • The under has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for AZ
  • Kyler off a SU win: 14-11 SU, 14-10-1 ATS
  • Kyler by time zone: PST/MST: 15-20-2 ATS | EST/CST: 13-4 ATS
  • The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in the first half this season
  • The under is 20-7 in Kyler Murray road starts, going under by 3.2 PPG (under in last six road games)
  • Kirk Cousins covers the spread at a near 70% rate when home and playing at 1PM EST
  • Cousins is 2-5 ATS off a bye and 7-18 ATS after extended rest (8 days or more off)
  • Murray as an underdog is 19-10-2 ATS
  • AZ is the right side here especially at +3.5 which I would bet now because this will move to 3. Public will be on MIN looking at their 5-1 record and seeing how poorly AZ has played this season. AZ is the more desperate team needing a win to keep their season alive while MIN can afford a loss and might be a little flat coming off of the bye.

• TEN @ HOU +2, O/U 40.5

• • Sharp bettors on HOU
  • HOU getting 33% of the bets but 51% of the money
  • The reason the line is only TEN -2 is it looks like Ryan Tannehill is dealing with an ankle injury and might not be able to play
  • Titans and Ryan Tannehill have won and covered four straight games
  • Tannehill is 8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS as a road favorite vs. a divisional opponent in his career
  • Mike Vrabel and Tannehill are 15-3 SU, 12-6 ATS as a duo vs. AFC South
  • Teams after facing the Raiders in Vegas are 6-15 ATS in their next game. These teams have failed to cover the spread in six consecutive games
  • HOU 1-4 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • TEN 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
  • TEN took control of the division last week beating the Colts for the second time this season
  • I'll need to wait and see the injury report for both teams before giving a pick in this game

• WAS @ IND -3, O/U 40

• • Sharp action on WAS
  • 1 Action Network expert is on the UNDER
  • Colts making a QB change to Sam Ehlinger
  • IND 3-2 SU in last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • WAS 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • The UNDER has hit in 4 of the last 5 games for both WAS and IND
  • he Colts are now 0-7 against the first half spread this season and have lost nine straight 1H ATS dating back to last year
  • Washington turns to Taylor Heinicke again this week with Carson Wentz still hurt. Washington backup QBs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games since 2019
  • I'm leaning towards IND in this game and would stay away from the total (if anything tease the over). We have seen several times this season when there's QB change the offense seems to show up (look at WAS last week). 

• SF @ LAR +2, O/U 42.5

• • Sharp action on LAR but big money on SF
  • 1 Action Network expert is on SF ML
  • LAR 3-2 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • 4 straight LAR games have gone under
  • SF 2-3 SU last 5 games and 2-3 ATS
  • Jimmy Garoppolo excels against teams .500 or better: 21-11 SU/ATS. Since his first start in 2017, he’s the second-most profitable QB vs. .500 or better opponents
  • The 49ers are 37-19 straight up and 31-24-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QBs in that span? They are 9-29 SU and 16-22 ATS
  • Jimmy G vs. the Rams: 7-1 SU/ATS (7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS in regular season)
  • McVay and Stafford are 0-2 ATS off a bye week as a duo (including playoffs)
  • SF seems to own LAR in this matchup. I have a hard time seeing SF losing 3 games straight. The running game should contiue to have success against LAR with CMC in the backfield now.

• NYG @ SEA +3, O/U 45.5

• • Big money on SEA, 57% of the tickets and 69% of the money
  • The Giants keep coving and winning and an underdog this season
  • SEA 3-2 SU last 5 games and 3-2 ATS
  • The OVER has hit in 4 of the last 5 SEA games
  • NYG 4-1 SU last 5 games and 4-1 ATS
  • The Giants played on road in Eastern time last week and continue their road trip west to face the Seahawks. Teams to go from Eastern to Pacific on the road are just 14-15 SU but 9-19-1 ATS since 2019
  • Teams winning 80%+ of their games entering their eighth game are 10-2 SU, 11-1 ATS when listed as the underdog
  • Geno Smith: 17-10-2 ATS as underdog | 6-6 ATS as favorite
  • Seahawks are 6-1 against the first half spread this season
  • Giants in a terrible travel spot having to go down to JAX last week and now across country to SEA.
  • Giants have a bye next week and teams on the road who have a bye the following week have been successful ATS last 10 years. 
  • I love the Giants in this game and will have more on this later.

• GB @ BUF -10.5, O/U 47.5

• • Favorites of a TD or more in primetime coming off a bye week are 16-3 SU and 10-7-2 ATS in the regular season over the last 20 years
  • Josh Allen primetime: 10-3 SU/ATS, covering by 9.6 PPG
  • Allen is 41-27 ATS since first start in 2018, most profitable QB in the NFL

  • Allen is 4-0 SU, 2-1-1 ATS off a bye week.

  • Rodgers in primetime: 44-25 SU, 40-27-2 ATS
  • Rodgers is 12-1 SU, 11-2 ATS at night since 2020
  • Since 2017, Rodgers is 7-9 SU, 4-12 ATS in EST
  • Rodgers has won his last four games at night SU as an underdog

• CIN @ CLE +3.5, O/U 47.5

• • Joe Burrow is 19-17-1 SU and 24-13 ATS in his NFL career
  • Joe Burrow has played four games at night. He is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS, including 0-2 SU in primetime on the road
  • In Burrow’s career, he is 0-3 SU and 2-1 ATS vs. the Browns
  • The Bengals are 13-2 ATS in their last 15 games, including covering five consecutive games. Not to mention, Burrow is 12-2 ATS in his last 14 starts
  • Brissett on MNF: 0-2 SU/ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 PPG
  • Brissett has played on extended rest as a dog five times: 0-5 SU, 1-4 ATS
  • The Browns are 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS vs. the AFC North under Kevin Stefanski

• OFFICIAL PICKS:

• • BAL 1H ML -124❌
  • TB +1.5❌
  • Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / NE +3.5✅
  • Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / GB-BUF o41.5✅
  • Teaser 6 point -110: BAL +8 / CAR +10✅
  • Teaser 6 point -110: TB +7.5 / HOU +8.5✅
  • Teaser 6 point -110: TB +7.5 / SF +4.5✅
  • 6.5 points teaser +135: TB +8.5 / DEN +9 / ARI +10✅
  • 3 leg ML parlay +1277: DEN / ARI / NYG❌
  • DEN +2.5✅
  • DEN ML +125✅
  • DAL -9✅
  • LV -1❌
  • CAR +4✅
  • CAR ML +175❌
  • PHI -10.5✅
  • MIA -3.5✅
  • AZ +3.5❌
  • AZ ML +162❌
  • NE -2.5✅
  • NE ML -140✅
  • NYG +3❌
  • NYG ML +135❌
  • SF -1✅
  • BUF -10❌
  • BUF/GB over 47.5❌

• TEASER POOL

HERE'S A LIST OF TEASER LEGS THAT I LIKE AND WOULD PLAY IF YOU'RE LOOKING FOR ONE. MIX AND MATCH THESE AS YOU LIKE.

• • DEN +8✅
  • DAL -3✅
  • NO +7✅
  • CAR +10✅
  • PHI -4.5✅
  • MIA +2.5✅
  • AZ +9.5✅
  • NE +3.5✅
  • NYG +9❌
  • GB/BUF OVER 41.5✅

• ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:

• A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.

https://pregame.com/game-center

• Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!

https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/

• Action Nework is a great site for beginners and experts. I use them in my videos and to make this report each week.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/sharp-report

• Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!

https://sportspicks.locals.com/

• SUPER CONTEST PICKS:

We are hanging in there but need a big week. Luckily we feel very confident this will be a 5-0 week for us.