• OPENING RANTS:

• • Profitable week! Teasers were spot on going 8-1 in the recommended teaser pool and 6-0 on recommended teaser picks! Hardest part about winning in the NFL is doing it again in the following week but I'm confident we will.
  • I don't love this week because there are 6 teams out on bye which means we get 2 less games and there is only 2 game for the 4pmEST/1pmPST window. As a bettor you have to be very disciplined when this happens and don't force a bet you wouldn't normally make just because there isn't as many games.
  • The under has been crushing it this season, especially in prime time games. I think this week that changes. Excluding the prime time game, I might blindly bet the over. Scoring is going to start going up in the NFL in my opinion.
  • Once again, you guys are amazing! This community keeps growing every week! Let's keep cashing tickets and having fun.

REMEMBER I PUT THIS OUT ASAP IN THE WEEK BUT IT WILL BE UPDATED AS THE WEEK GOES ON SO MAKE SURE TO CHECK BACK IN FOR UPDATED PICKS AND EXTRA STATS/TRENDS.

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• PICK'EM PLAYS (FOR CONTESTS ONLY)
  • PHI
  • WAS
  • CIN
  • BUF
  • NE
  • LV
  • MIA
  • GB
  • ATL
  • AZ
  • TB
  • TEN
  • BAL

• NFL TRENDS:

• • There have been 123 games so far in the 2022 NFL season. The under is now 72-51 (58.5%), the best win pct for the under through eight games since 1991.

• THE GAMES:

• • PHI @ HOU +13.5, O/U 45
•  
  • •  PHI is 5-2 ATS this season, HOU is 4-3 ATS
    • PHI is 4-1 ATS in Primetime games, HOU is 0-1
    • PHI is the largest TNF road favorite of all-time. The next two biggest road favorites on TNF were 2007 Colts -13.5 (won 31-13 and covered) and 2019 49ers -10.5 (won 28-25 didn't cover)
    • Jalen Hurts has played four games in his career on short rest. He’s 3-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4.6 PPG
    • Teams who are 7-0 SU or better are 36-47-3 ATS (43.4%) over the last 20 years, including 3-9 ATS since 2018.
    • Eagles are now 7-0 against the first half spread this season. They become the first team to start a season 7-0 against the first half spread since the Carolina Panthers back in 2013.
    • TNF unders are 5-3 this season
    • MY THOUGHTS: Hold your nose and take the points with HOU especially if you can get them at +14. HOU is who I will be on and it's because this is the first time a road favorite has laid this many points on the road for TNF. How excited is PHI? We know HOU will be up for this game especially after a terrible performance Sunday. I also think PHI's 1st half win streak snaps as well. Wouldn't be surprised if HOU is leading at half and we get to see the Eagles play from behind for the first time this season in the second half.
•  
  • IND @ NE -5.5, O/U 39

• • • Mac Jones at home for his career is 5-6 ATS and 4-7 SU
    • Colts are 7-1 to the under this season, including 4-0 to the under on the road, with their last 7 road games going under the total.
    • Underdogs in games with a total below 42 are 102-67-4 ATS (60.4%) since 2018.
    • Colts are now 0-8 against the first half spread this season and have lost 10 straight first halves ATS dating back to last year
    • Six of the Patriots’ last 7 home games have gone over the total (8-4 to the over at home over the last 2 seasons)
    • Bill Belichick is 28-9 SU and 24-12-2 ATS after facing the Jets over the last 20 years, including 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS since 2016
    • Belichick is 31-10-1 ATS (76%) in games with a total below 40 over the last 20 years.
    • MY THOUGHTS: A second year QB getting his second career start on the road against Belichick... yeah I think you know what side I will be on. There's a reason this line moved from pick'em to NE -5.5 and it's not because the Pats beat the Jets. I lean towards the over in this game I think everyone is looking at these trends and hammering the under but it's going to be the NE offense that finds the endzone finally and starts putting up big points.
•  
  • BUF @ NYJ +13, O/U 47
  • •  Josh Allen is 41-28-4 ATS since his first start in 2018, the most profitable QB in the NFL
    • Bills last 4 road games have gone under the total
    • Jets lost to the Patriots at home last week. Teams are 23-33-1 ATS the week after facing the Patriots since 2019
    • Wilson has faced 3 teams in his career allowing 17 PPG or less. Jets have scored: 16, 0, 6
    • MY THOUGHTS: That's a lot of points but I don't feel good betting on the Jets in a game where Zach Wilson is going to have to make plays.
•  
  • MIA @ CHI +5, O/U 45.5

• • • Justin Fields is 2-6 ATS at home for his career
    • Tua Tagovailoa is 0-2 SU and ATS on a road trip (second road game or later) in his career, failing to cover the spread by 30.8 PPG
    • Tua career vs. the NFC: 6-1 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 8.9 PPG
    • It’s never good to allow a ton of points. Since 2015, teams to allow 45+ points in their last game are 33-45 ATS in their next game, including 14-25 ATS when that team plays at home
    • Raiders and Bears lost by 20+ points back in Week 8. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 66-48 ATS in their next game, including 51-30 ATS when listed as an underdog
    • Justin Fields is 6-12 ATS as a starting QB, including 5-11 ATS as an underdog

    • WEATHER: 20 MPH winds and potential rain in the forecast at Soldier Field

    • Fields has played six home games with 10+ MPH winds: 2-4 SU/ATS, avg 16.3 PPG
    • MY THOUGHTS: Miami has gotten better on defense at the trade deadline while CHI's defense has gotten worse. Miami has a huge speed advantage and can work the quick passes even in a high wind game. I think it's going to be a long day for CHI and the line is where it's at because a lot of people are excited about this CHI team. I don't see it.

• • • • MIN @ WAS +4, O/U 43.5

• • • Kirk Cousins goes back to Washington. He’s 16-13 SU, 14-15 ATS at FedEx Field.
    • Vikings have won 5 consecutive games SU, 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
    • Kirk Cousins has never played a game for a team on a 5-game winning streak.

    • Cousins is 26-36-1 ATS after a SU win in his career, including 15-28-1 ATS after a SU since 2017, the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.

    • The Commanders have won and covered 3 straight games.
    • Taylor Heinicke has covered 4 consecutive games against the spread.
    • After a SU win as an underdog, Rivera’s teams are 24-9 ATS, making him the best coach in that spot over the last 20 years (covering 7 of his last 8).
    • MY THOUGHTS: I love WAS here. I will be on them with the points and on the ML. I do not trust MIN on the road. I don't think they are as good as their record says and this WAS team has rallied around back up QB Heinicke. News came out this week that Dan Snyder is thinking about selling the team and I see a lot of players excited about it. Look for WAS to be focused up in Kirk Cousins first game at FedEx Field in the Visitor locker room.
    •  
    • GB @ DET +3, O/U 50
  • Aaron Rodgers has had his share of success vs. the Lions: 18-6 SU, 13-11 ATS.
  • Detroit’s defense has been pretty bad this year, so can Rodgers take advantage? Rodgers is 15-2 SU, 12-5 ATS vs. defenses allowing 30+ PPG in his career.
  • Packers have lost 4 consecutive games straight up
  • The Lions have lost 5 consecutive games straight up.
  • Detroit has lost 4 straight games ATS for the first time since 2017.
  • The over in Lions home games is now 4-0 this season. Detroit home overs are 20-8 since 2019 — the best home team to the over in that span.
  • MY THOUGHTS: I normally would take the points with DET here, but I don't know what I'm going to see from them offensively. Swift is hurt, WRs are banged up, and they just traded away their TE. Meanwhile GB needs this win badly. This could be a get right game for GB and it could get ugly.

• • LAC @ ATL +3, O/U 49.5

• • CAR @ CIN -7, O/U 42.5

• • LV @ JAX +1.5, O/U 48.5

• • • Raiders and Bears lost by 20+ points back in Week 8. Since 2020, teams to lose by 20+ pts are 66-48 ATS in their next game, including 51-30 ATS when listed as an underdog

• • SEA @ AZ -2, O/U 50.5

• LAR @ TB -3, O/U 42.5

• • •  Tom Brady and the Buccaneers have lost 6 consecutive games against the spread entering their game this week against the Rams. This is the first, and only other time, Brady has lost 6 consecutive game ATS since the 2007-08 season.
    • Brady’s 2-6 ATS start is also the worst start of his NFL career.

• TEN @ KC -12.5, O/U 46.5

• • •  With 13 days of rest or more, Reid is 27-6 SU and 21-12 ATS, including 21-3 SU and 16-8 ATS in the regular season. Reid at home off a bye is 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS.

• • BAL @ NO +2.5, O/U 48

• OFFICIAL PICKS:

• • HOU +13.5
  • HOU 1H +7
  • HOU 1H ML +310
  • MIA -5
  • LV -1.5
  • WSH +3.5
  • WSH ML +165
  • BAL -2.5
  • NE -5.5
  • NE ML
  • PARLAY: NE / GB / MIA ML +215

• TEASER POOL:

• • HOU +20
  • IND/NE o33
  • MIA +1
  • WAS +10
  • LV +4.5
  • AZ +4
  • TEN +18.5
  • BAL +3.5

• ARTICLES AND BETTING INFO:

• A site I like to use for sports information and to see how the lines are moving is Pregame. They are out of Vegas and have some of the best information a capper needs to get educated on all these games.

https://pregame.com/game-center

• Our good friends over at Patriot Sports Radio have great content coming out on their site go check it out those guys are awesome!

https://www.patriotsportsnow.com/

• Action Nework is a great site for beginners and experts. I use them in my videos and to make this report each week.

https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/sharp-report

• Another great sports community over here on Locals is SportsPicks! Barnes has some great picks go check them out!

https://sportspicks.locals.com/

• SUPER CONTEST PICKS:

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