Here are my contest picks for this week.

Giants -3

-Jared Goff is 1-10-1 SU on the road in his last 12 starts, losing by 11.8 PPG. Goff hasn’t won on the road in consecutive weeks since 2018.

-Goff is 10-13 ATS after a SU win on the road. When he plays on the road again? 4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS, but 0-4 SU/ATS in his past four games in this spot.

-Giants are 7-2 ATS, their best ATS start since 2008

-Daniel Jones is 9-4 ATS vs. teams with win rate of less than 40%. 3-0 SU/ATS vs. such teams this season

-Saquon Barkley currently leads the NFL in rushing yards. He was 25-1 to lead the category before the season started

-I don't want to back the Lions after they have won 2 in a row and are on the road again. I can see if they get down in this game they won't have any urgency or willingness to fight back. DET has one of the worst defenses in the league. Giants are going to continue to do what they have done all season, hand the ball off to Saquon and grind out a win.

NE -3

-Jets are 0-2 SU/ATS on extended rest under Robert Saleh, failing to cover the spread by 24 PPG, losing to the Bills and Patriots

-Bill Belichick vs. Jets: 36-11 SU, 26-19-2 ATS

-Patriots beaten the Jets 13 times in a row dating back to 2015 (9-4 ATS). Jets last win: Dec. 27, 2015, Ryan Fitzpatrick against Tom Brady

-Belichick off a bye in the regular season: 15-6 SU, 11-9-1 ATS

-This line 3 weeks ago was NE -3 when they were on the road and now they are home it still is -3? That would suggest that the Jets have improved more than the Patriots over that time even though they lost 22-17. Yes it was impressive that the Jets beat the Bills but that was more so Bills hurting themselves than the Jets dominating that game. Patriots are currently in the playoffs and a win here will move them up in the division past the Jets. Don't over think this play and watch NE win this game easily.

PHI -6.5

-I don't have any good stats for you that'll make you want to take PHI. Actually, every sharp bettor out there that I have heard from this week is on IND. And that's why I'm taking PHI here. Everyone is hyping up IND after one win. This team is still really bad. PHI is all in this season going for a SB run and we saw that buy the signing of Suh this week. PHI lost because their offense was sidelined for a majority of the game. I don't think IND can repeat that. I this Hurts and the offense is hungry to get out there and correct their mistakes they made on MNF. I also like taking the in the 1H.

CLE +8.5

-Major distractions this week with the snow in BUF. So much so they moved this game to DET. I took the line earlier in the week so I have an extra point in value here. BUF is going to win this game but it's going to be close. One thing that BUF likes to do is let teams run on them but not give up anything deep. Running the ball is what CLE does best. If CLE establish the run game and control the clock leaving Josh Allen on the sidelines they have a good shot at keeping this game close. BUF also has a lot of CBs out and until they get healthy their defense will continue to play below average. CLE was also embarrassed last week by MIA and I always love betting on a team the following week after they got embarrassed.

PIT +4.5

-Burrow is just 1-2 SU (2-1 ATS) off a bye in his career (regular season + playoffs; 14 days or more). He’s faced Steelers once off extended rest, a 36-10 loss in Pittsburgh.

-Tomlin is 41-19-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog from Week 5 forward, and he’s nearly untouchable at home. He’s 15-2-1 ATS there, covering nine straight and winning the last seven times outright.

-Tomlin is 14-8 SU and 16-3-3 ATS as a home underdog in his career. His 16-3-3 ATS mark as a home dog is the best of any head coach over the last 20 years.

-These teams faced off in week 1 where the Steelers won in OT and PIT had 7 sacks in that game! It also was the game TJ Watt got injured and I like him to get a little revenge against CIN. I don't like to give too much credit to one player that is not a QB but this Steelers' defense plays so much better with TJ Watt out there. CIN is still having offensive line issue so I expect Burrow to be under pressure all game long. Since Chase has been out for CIN they have been a below average passing offense. This is going to be an ugly, boring game decided by a FG as time expires. So give me the 4.5 points with the home dog.