TNF Bills at Patriots Breakdown
My thoughts and bets for the game:
Money has been coming in on the Patriots pushing this line down to +3.5 and seeing the Patriots get 47% of the tickets but 74% of the cash!
Some stats and trends for this game:
Josh Allen at night: 11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS
Bills road games are 6-0 to the under in 2022, going under the total by 9.3 PPG.
Bills have lost both road games vs. AFC East this season (0-2 SU/ATS).
Belichick is 37-11 SU, 40-7-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite last 20 years in the regular season.
Patriots allowed 33 pts vs. Vikings on Thanksgiving. Over the last 20 years, the Patriots are 39-9 SU, 36-12 ATS after allowing 30 pts or more in their previous game.
My picks:
NE +4.5 (like at +3.5 as well)
NE ML +190 (play to +150)
NE in a teaser (pick your favorite leg of another game)
The under in a teaser (do not tease it with NE in this game)
NE +3.5 / under 43.5 parlay
This is NE's season on the line. They are currently on the outside looking in along with the Chargers for the AFC playoffs. After some uncharacteristic special teams plays last week that cost them the win against MIN I like the Pats here to be focused up to get a much needed win against a division rival.
The Bills look exhausted. At the end of last week's game Allen was relieved when hugging Diggs to get that win against DET. This is their third row game in a row which does not help them. I'm not quite sure Allen is fully healthy.
I think Pats make this game ugly by controlling the ball through the run game and keep it close. Potentially win it but I think it comes down to a FG either way.