Here's what I'm on for tonight (sorry I didn't send earlier)

David Dvorak +210 1U

I have long been a fan of Manel Kape, mostly due to his incredible fight finishing power. But the number on him is too wide against an opponent as sharp and durable as Dvorak. Dvorak has never been stopped by anyone but a doctor, and if he can take some of Kape’s offense early on, it leaves him in a good position to take over this fight. Dvorak is a nasty leg kicker, and the last thing you want if you are a Kape backer is for him to be chopped down by leg kicks, taking power out of those punches. This is one of the best matched bouts on the card, so getting +210 is too juicy for me to pass on.

Said Nurmagomedov +100 2U

Said is the Nurmagomedov with no relation to Khabib, and his game is certainly different than Khabib’s. He relies on a super accurate striking game and length that keeps him out of firefights. Kakhramonov is a pressure fighter who sacrifices defense for offense. I think there will be spots where he makes Nurmagomedov uncomfortable, but Said’s precision is too much for me to overlook in this matchup. We are getting the more experienced, and more technical fighter at a dog price.

Jake Matthews By Decision +140 1U

Semelsberger has some real physical gifts, but he is far from complete as a fighter. He relies a lot on aggression, but when hit back with offense he regresses into a patient counterstrikes, which he isn’t good enough to be. Matthews, on the other hand, has spent most of his career fighting the safe way. He is the better striker and the better grappler in this match, but he is not the type of fighter to go in for the kill against a dangerous opponent. Semelsberger was just picked apart by Alex Morono for 3 rounds, and I see a very similar result coming here. Morono took chances that Matthews won’t, but Matthews is also more than willing to take Semelsberger down and control him on the mat.

Cheyanne Vlismas By Decision +105 3U

Vlismas is back after some time off, but she comes into a matchup where she has all the advantages. She is the much more dynamic athlete in this matchup, and should be able to keep things at range where she is most comfortable. McKenna isn’t great at anything but being tough. She is slow and plodding, but doesn’t back down and maybe has some advantages here if she can drag this to the mat. I don’t really see a path for that, though, and envision Vlismas picking her apart for 3 rounds en route to a lopsided decision.

Amir Albazi Inside This Distance -135 2U

Albazi is a very complete fighter who relies on great technique and savvy more than ultra physical advantages. He has not been tested much in his first 3 fights in the UFC, and instead of a big step up fight against Brandon Royval he is now facing a UFC newcomer in Costa. The film on Costa is not thrilling, though he does carry some nice power at this weight class. The assumption is that Albazi is eventually able to get this to the mat, though, and Costa won’t have any answers in that world.

Armen Tsarukyan By Decision +125 1U

I think this is the best fight on the card. Tsarukyian is 5-2 in the UFC, but his first fight came on short notice against Islam Makhachev (whom he gave a tough fight) and a terrible decision loss to Mateusz Gamrot, whom he did significantly more damage to. Ismagulov is unbeaten in the UFC, but his lack of top end of athleticism makes his margins for success very thin. Tsarukyan should be at his best early in the fight, with Ismagulov’s durability keeping him in it late. I believe the former gets enough done in the first two rounds that he takes the decision win.

Jared Cannonier -110 1U
Cannonier By KO/TKO +275 1*

Coin flip main event, and I think there are two possible outcomes here. One is that Cannonier fights like he did against Adesanya, where he was unwilling to take any risks and essentially got booed out of the building. If that is the case, Strickland’s pacing could be a real problem and he will cruise. The most likely option is that Cannonier, who is 39 years old, realizes that the only shot he has at getting back to a title shot is to not only win, but win in impressive and fan-friendly fashion. This was where Strickland was overwhelmed against Pereira in July, where he suffered a NASTY knockout loss. Expect Cannoniers aggression to be the difference in this matchup.