Loik Radzhabov -260 2*

Two UFC debuts here, but Radzhabov has a wealth of experience. He has been the runner up twice in the PFL brackets, and is certainly deserving of this call to the UFC. Ribovics is 11-0 but has fought almost exclusively in South America and almost exclusively against non-Brazilians (a resume I generally look to fade). Radzhabov will have a stark grappling advantage, and a good chunk of Ribovics wins come off a quick knockout. I don’t think that is available to him here, as Radzhabov has never been finished. It’s expensive, but I really like Radzhabov’s advantages here.

Tabatha Ricci By Decision -120 1*

At 40 years old, it is hard to envision Jessica Penne still being a finishing threat, despite looking to be in really good shape since here return from the 4 year layoff. Ricci is an aggressive striker, but it is all to set up a takedown and control with her wrestling. Ricci got finished in her UFC debut, but that was a late notice fight against a MASSIVE opponent (Ricci is already undersized for the weight class). Ricci’s lack of physicality may make it tough for her to get a finish, but her grappling chops takes away all the paths I can see for a Penne victory.

Cameron Saimman/Leomana Martinez Over 2.5 Rounds -110 2
Leomana Martinez +250 1

This is a play where I am fully realizing that one of these two bets may lose, but if one hits I am profitable either way. Saimman was extremely aggressive in his UFC debut, but that route isn’t wise against Martinez, who is an electric counter-puncher who carries a lot more power than it looks like he should. The best path for Saimman will be to fall into a wrestling-heavy game and hold Martinez down like Ronnie Lawrence did in Martinez’s only UFC loss. If Saimman chooses to charge at him and engage in a brawl, I like the chances for Martinez. He has never been finished, partly because opponents have been historically averse to getting into firefights with him.

Amanda Ribas -120 2*

Araujo is typically a fighter who dominates opponents whom she has an overwhelming edge over in athleticism, and has typically struggled when on the wrong side of that equation. She is certainly on the wrong side of it here. Ribas is coming off a loss to Katelyn Chookagian up a weight class, and she actually held her own nicely in a fight a lot of people expected her to be dominated in. She is staying at flyweight here, but is going against another small flyweight in Araujo. I have seen Ribas compete against (and beat) much better fighters, and I think she can get the job done here pretty handily.

Bo Nickal By KO/TKO +265 1*

This is a bit of a flier. Bo Nickal is going to win inside the distance, but that is still priced pretty high at -600. The market seems to think the most likely method is submission, which is priced at -165. He has submitted 2 of his 3 prior opponents, but he has also finished one with punches on the ground. Pickett has been knocked out twice in the UFC, and will be looking to avoid takedowns. Nickal has the power to land a big shot on the feet, or to just pound it out should he hit the mat. He may have more subs than KO’s when it’s all said and done, but I think it is going to be close, so at this number I can’t pass up a finish with the hands.

Geoff Neal +400 1*

This number is downright disrespectful. Should Rakhmanov be favored? Sure. But +400 is insanity. Neal lost two fights in a row in late 2020/early 2021 after a life threatening bout with sepsis. He certainly looked like the elite prospect he was once considered to be in August when he smoked Vicente Luque. Rakhmanov took a huge step up in competition last time out against Neil Magny, and he handled it very well, but Magny doesn’t carry the explosive knockout power that Neal does. This is the most dangerous opponent of Rakhmanov’s career, so at 4/1 I have to take a shot.

Valentina Shevchenko Inside The Distance -135 2*

Shevchenko looked very beatable in her last title defense, something we haven’t seen in any of her fights not against Amanda Nunes. But she got the job done, and now has a much more favorable matchup in Alexa Grasso. Grasso is a very strong striker, but doesn’t provide much threat of a takedown. Shevchenko will eat that up. Valentina is the best striker in the division, and probably the most physically strong woman in the division as well. She is also worlds ahead in grappling should she fall onto that. I can’t picture a way that Grasso makes it 25 minutes.

Jon Jones/Cyril Gane Goes To Decision -115 3
Jon Jones -155 1

Whatever you think of Jon Jones the person, Jon Jones is one of the smartest fighters ever once he is inside the cage. Gane is the type of fighter that has historically given Jones trouble. Someone who can match his reach, and someone with a strong kicking game. Jones is not going to dive into a firefight here. He will be cautious in his approach, and look to solve the puzzle. The best path to that may be with his wrestling, though it has been a long time since we saw Jon Jones really effectively use wrestling. That said, the only man to beat Gane so far was Francis Ngannou, who outwrestled him despite not being known AT ALL for his grappling. Both guys are dangerous, and both guys fight smart. Gane wants to stay at range, and Jones won’t hate that. The layoff worries me for Jones, but I have never seen him truly hurt before, so it is hard for me to picture Gane getting him out of there.