Hey everyone!
As you guys may have noticed by now I love betting NFL teasers and have been pretty profitable doing it. I want to start pointing out teaser betting tips to the board members here to help you with your teaser picks.
Today's lesson: When to tease a -6.5 NFL favorite down.
Some people will insist on never betting a favorite down to just win. In most cases they would be right. But let's look at the math to help us understand when we are gaining an edge against the books on these teasers.
Assuming a 2 leg 6 point NFL teaser is at -120 odds (most books this is what you can get on average now a days. I know betonline still has -110).
That means each leg of that 2 leg teaser is valued like a -278 bet (you parlay -278 with another -278 your odds are -120).
So when we see a -6 or -6.5 point favorite and we want to tease them down to where they need to just win the game we should look at the money line value for those teams when determining if the teaser is good value.
For example. This week the Bills are a -6.5 point favorite against Washington. They are a -300 on the money line. That means we can bet the bills money line to win at -300 OR we could tease the Bills down and only pay -278, getting 22 cents in value by doing a teaser instead of the money line.
BUT, if the Bills were -265 on the money line then the teaser would not be valuable because we would be paying 13 cents in tax to do a teaser when we should just play them on the money line (ML is -265 vs Teaser leg is -278).
Hope that is helpful to some of you! Make sure to shop around for money line values to help you make your decision if you should be betting that or the teaser.
For you visual people out there I'll try and get a video done this week explaining all of this.
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Here's where the money is at in MLB today!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html
Here's today's games!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html
Jackson Dart under 40.5 rushing yards
Dart became the third player in NFL history to rush for 50+ yards in his first three games.
But his injury/concussion he had last week nearly gave Deboll a heart attack when he had to let Russell Wilson come in the game. Look for Deboll to not rush Dart much in this game and to encourage him to not be so reckless when he takes off.
Denver is really good at stopping running QBs. Since the start of last season Denver has only allowed 1 QB to go over 40.5 rush yards. They stopped Lamar, Hurts, Allen, Herbert, Fields and many more. Now they are home ready to take on this rookie QB.
How are NFL teams doing against the spread this season?
THE BEST (ALL 4-2 ATS)
Colts
Lions
Seahawks
Buccaneers
Rams
Patriots
Panthers
Jaguars
THE BAD (ALL 2-4 ATS)
Bengals
Titans
Raiders
Browns
Saints
Bills
Broncos
THE WORST (1-5 ATS)
Ravens
NFL WEEK 3 CARD
SIDES AND ML
TEN +3.5 +100
TEN ML +174
CAR +5.5
CAR ML +203
LV +3.5
LV ML +148
GB -7.5
MIN -3
LAR +3 +104
LAR ML +165
HOU ML +110
DEN +3 -120
NO +7.5
TEASERS
POOL
MIA +17.5
MIA/BUF O 44.5
CAR +11.5
LV +9.5
GB -1.5
HOU +7
DEN +9
NO +13.5
LAR +9
NYJ +12.5
MY TEASER PICKS
MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155
LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150
CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150
LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
