NFL WEEK 18 BETTING TIPS

It can be tough betting the last week of the NFL. Some people like to stick to just games that mean something. But as a sports bettor, there’s angles and advantages in all these games that you should be taking advantage of. I’m going to list a few tips here that I’m personally looking at or betting on where I see value.

CAUTION AGAINST INCENTIVE PROPS

One thing you have probably heard a lot this week is X player only needs X number of catches (or yards) for a bonus in his contract. Why yes this is a motivating factor you need to be cautious that you aren’t making a bad bet.

Let’s say Kelce needs 7 catches for a $250,000 bonus. The books put the prop line at 6.5 and you’re thinking this is great because the Chiefs are going to try and feed him to get him that bonus. Makes sense right. But what if his usual prop line all season long per game is 4.5 catches. These books have caught on to incentive props. It’s a terrible bet to be on the over 6.5 when the line typically should be set at 4.5. Even if it hits and he does get 7 it’s still not a good bet and you’re giving up value to the books.

Just remember, if you saw it on the internet the books have took and they are aware of player bonuses.

FINDING CORRELATED PROPS THE BOOKS HAVE NOT PRICED IN

There’s scenarios where if X happens then Y is more probable. The books sometimes do not factor this in when they give you odds on these parlays.

For example, Eagles need Cowboys to lose in order for them to win the division. Cowboys are 13 point favorites and are likely to win the game. Both games kickoff at the same time. What is correlated in this game is DAL winning and Giants covering. So how can we take advantage of this?

We look towards DAL 1H -7 with NYG +5 at +260. This is the current odds (and normal odds) for this parlay. The books are not factoring in the correlation that if DAL covers the 1H and are up big that the Eagles are likely at halftime to see this and rest their starters for the second half, which would mean the Giants would have a higher chance than normal to cover this spread if they aren’t already.

DOUBLE CHECK PROP ODDS

You may think it’s easy to just go to the “to make the playoffs” section on your book and trust those odds on there when placing a bet. But you might be losing value and should double check you can’t get better odds on a parlay.

For example, Tampa Bay is -250 to make the playoffs. The only scenario the Bucs make the playoffs is if they beat the Panthers this week. Tampa’s money line bet is -225. You would be better off taking the ML rather than the to make the playoffs bet.

Another example, Saints to win the division is +325. For this to happen Saints need to win and Bucs need to lose. A Saints + Panthers ML parlay pays +366 which is better value than the to win the division prop.

VALUE BETS

Here’s what I’ve seen as value bets so far, will update as the weekend goes on and more props become available.

DAL 1H -7 / NYG +5 | +260

DAL 1H -7 / NYG ML | +460

PHI -5 / WAS 1H +7 | +281

PHI/NYG 1ST SCORE OF GAME: PHI TD +160

NO ML / CAR ML | +366 (vs Saints to win division +325)

TB ML -225 (vs TB to make the playoffs -250)

Steelers need to win and Bills to lose to make the playoffs OR Jags to lose OR if Bills win then Jags and Raiders to both lose. Steelers to make the playoff prop is +130

PIT ML / MIA ML | +256

PIT ML / TEN ML | +301

DEN ML / TEN ML | +523

Some props I’m looking at but waiting to be available is AJ Brown 1st TD scorer and Hopkins to get 2+ TDs. Will explain more if the value is right on them when they release.