I apologize I wasn't able to get a video out breaking down why I like these picks but here's the card! There's many angles to tackle UFC betting so I decided to break it down into 3 categories:
conservative: low risk, likely to happen. A lot of the time in fighting it's as simple as betting the better guy to win.
degenerate: for those of you that like some risk in your life and want some longer shot odds these are my favorite ones for this card.
value: these bets are ones that I think the line is at least 50 cents off, hence we are getting value on it.
I will also open up a live chat for the fights for anyone who has questions about any of the fights.
Garbrandt vs Figueiredo
conservative: fight DOES NOT go the distance -190
value: Garbrandt via KO/TKO +475
degenerate: Garbrandt via KO/TKO round 1 +1100
Miller vs Green
conservative/value: Green ML -177
Andrade vs Rodriguez
conservative: Andrade ML -133
value: Andrade over 1.5 takedowns +105
degenerate: Andrade via submission +475
Turner vs Moicano
conservative: Turner ML -230
value: fight does NOT go the distance -230
degenerate: Turner via round 1 submission +1400
Lopes vs Yusuff
conservative: fight DOES NOT go the distance -190
value: Lopes via submission +285
degenerate: Lopes via round 2 submission +1000
Harrison vs Holm
conservative: Harrision -450
value: Harrison via points +135
degenerate: Holm via KO/TKO +900
Sterling vs Kattar
conservative: fight DOES go the distance -160
value: Kattar ML +145
degenerate: Kattar via round 1 KO/TKO +1200
Prochazka vs Rakic
conservative: fight DOES NOT go the distance -200
value: betting both fighters to win via KO/TKO (+165 and +260)
degenerate: Prochazka via 1st round KO/TKO +450
Nickal vs Brundage
conservative: Nickal -1600
value: Nickal to win in round 1 -265
Tsarukyan vs Oliveira
conservative: fight DOES NOT go the distance -290
value: Oliveira +200 (my best bet of the night)
degenerate: Oliveira via 1st round KO/TKO +1100
Holloway vs Gaethje
conservative: fight to start round 3 -325
value: Gaethje -150
degenerate: Gaethje via round 2 KO/TKO +800
Yan vs Zhang
conservative: Zhang ML -515
value: fight DOES NOT go the distance -160
Hill vs Pereira
conservative: fight DOES NOT go the distance -400
value: Pereira via KO/TKO
degenerate: Pereira via round 1 KO/TKO