SUPER BOWL BETTING CARD

Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!

I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them. 

My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.

WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK

STRAIGHT BETS

• Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
• 1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
  • This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
• 1Q UNDER 9.5
• GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
• EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
• CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
• 1Q EXACT SCORE:
  • KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
  • KC 3 PHI 3 +2500

PARLAYS

• +2600
  • MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
  • BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
  • WORTHY TD
  • SMITH TD
• PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
• MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
  
  • If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.

PROPS

• COIN TOSS: HEADS -101
• EAGLES ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY: YES +170
• KICK TO DONK OFF UPRIGHT: YES +550

LONGSHOTS

• BUTKER MVP +10000
• TRIPLE CROWN: MAHOMES / WORTHY / HURTS +5000

NFL PLAYOFFS DIVISIONAL ROUND STATS, TRENDS, BEST BETS!

We are down to 8! Let's dive into each of these games breaking down the stats and trends. Then I'll give you my thoughts and best bets! Check back in throughout the week for my updated picks because I'm going to try and get the info out to you ASAP and as I place bets I will update this article with my picks.

GENERAL PREVIEW

• Bills are currently home underdogs in the playoffs. If they close as home dogs, it would break an 18-game home favorite streak in the playoffs for Buffalo dating back to the merger in 1970.
• The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all. The closest longshot left was the Rams in the preseason at 30-1. The Broncos and Vikings lost last week, both were 100-1 or longer, too.
• Lions/Commanders total is 55.5. The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and ChiefS, Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.
• Both Saturday games have bIG spreads. Favorites of over a TD (-7.5 or more) have won 18 consecutive playoff games outright dating back to the 2019-20 playoffs; the last loss came with the Ravens against the Titans. That 18-game streak is the longest streak at any point in the Super Bowl era.
• If Texans-Chiefs closes under 43.5, it would be the lowest over/under for any playoff game with Patrick Mahomes.
• Since 2003, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 ATS (44%), including 3-5 ATS since 2020 (KC, DET). As a favorite of 7+ pts off a bye, they are 17-24-1 ATS (42%). When the road team is coming into the round on a road trip (2nd road game or later), the team on the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%) (DET).
• Road teams that missed the playoffs last year are 28-14 ATS (66%) in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Those same teams are 40-43-1 ATS (48%) in all other rounds of the playoffs.
• Teams to win as an underdog in the Wild Card round are 7-28 SU and 16-19 ATS in the Divisional Round over the past 20 years. Since 2011, those teams are 2-20 SU and 10-12 ATS.
• We are likely to see both the Chiefs and Lions close as 7+ pt favorites. We haven’t seen two or more 7+ pt favorites go undefeated ATS in the Divisional Round since 2001, 16 different years in that span we had 2 or more big favorites play in this round without a 2-0 ATS round. On the other side, we haven’t seen two 7+ pt favorites lose outright in the Divisional Round since 2007-08 (IND vs SD and DAL vs NYG). In the Super Bowl era, we’ve never had two or more 7+ pt favorites in a Divisional Round and not have at least one win outright and advance.
• Baltimore opened up as a 1.5-pt underdog against the Bills. When Lamar Jackson opens as an underdog, he is 17-3 ATS in his career, including 19-1 in a 6-pt teaser. Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
• In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
• In his coaching career, Sean McVay is 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

Texans at Chiefs (-9) | Total: 41.5

• The over/under in Chiefs/Texans is 41.5. Of Mahomes’ 18 career playoff games, this would be his lowest total, his previous low was 43.5 against the Dolphins last year. Of his 69 career home starts, this would be his 2nd-lowest total ever behind Christmas of last year against the Raiders at 40.5, a game KC lost.

• Travis Kelce is 343 receiving yards away from breaking Jerry Rice's all time playoff record. He is also 3 TDs away from tying Jerry's all time playoff TD record.
• Kelce has 5+ receptions in 14 straight playoff games, which is the longest streak by any player since the merger.
• Over the last two seasons, the second half under in Chiefs games is 28-10 (74%), going under the total in that 2H by 4.9 PPG. That is the best mark for any team in the NFL.
• Mahomes is 31-7 SU, 19-18-1 ATS playing on extended rest during the season and 6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS in Week 1s, for a combined 37-8 SU and 24-20-1 ATS on extended rest.
• If you focus on extreme prep/rest, which would be 13+ days, Mahomes is 19-3 SU and 13-9 ATS, including those Week 1 games.
• On extended rest (8+ days) during the season, Mahomes is 28-4 SU since 2019. QBs to beat him: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Jalen Hurts, and Aidan O’Connell.
• Mahomes is undefeated in the Divisional Round of the playoffs (8-0)
• Mahomes is 22-32-3 ATS (41%) as a favorite of 7 pts or more in his career, including 0-5-1 ATS this season. In those six games this year as a 7+ pt favorite, the Chiefs are 6-0 SU.
• The Texans' defense has been a great unit this year and that was no different last week vs. the Chargers. Houston is 10th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs, 10th vs. #3 WRs, and they are 5th vs. TEs.
• The Houston Texans — a team playing in a dome — will travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs in about 20-degree weather. In the last 20 years, a dome team has played outdoors in sub-30-degree weather for the playoffs 9 times. Those teams are 2-7 SU, losing by over 10 PPG.
• C.J. Stroud has made 35 career starts in the NFL. He’s 10-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 13-3 in a 6-point teaser.
• Stroud has had success in his career vs. teams above .500 SU. He is 10-7 ATS, including 7-4 ATS when listed as an underdog.

COMMANDERS AT LIONS (-9.5) | TOTAL: 55

• The over/under will probably be one of the bigger stories in betting this week. It opened at 54.5 and is up to 55.5/56 in the market.The last playoff game to close with a total of 55.5+ was back in 2021 between the Browns and Chiefs – Patrick Mahomes vs. Baker Mayfield, finished 22-17. If it closes at 56 or higher, it would go back to the 2019 playoffs between Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

  We’ve seen 17 over/under’s in the playoffs with a total of 55 or more, they are 9-8 to the over all-time, but just 4-7 to the over since 2013-14, going under the total by 7.1 PPG. If you break it down by indoors vs. outdoors, 5-2 to the over indoors and 6-1 to the under outdoors.

• In playoff games between No. 1 and No. 6 seeds, the under is 19-5 (79%) over the past 20 years, going under the total by 5.9 PPG.
• Commanders trailed the Bucs entering the 4th quarter last week and even had a last-minute drive while tied to win it. Teams to win after trailing entering the 4th quarter in a playoff game are just 11-25 SU since 2001.

• Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season, including 6-0 SU from this same Lions team. Under Dan Campbell, the Lions are 10-0 SU as favorites in primetime, winning by over 10 PPG, and in games starting at 4p ET or later, they are 15-1 SU under Campbell, with their one loss coming to the Bills this season.

• Lions are coming off the best 3-year stretch (2022-24, 36-14-1 ATS) and the best 4-year stretch (2021-24, 47-20-1 ATS) in the Super Bowl era.
• Lions went 8-0 SU on the road this season, both their losses coming at home to the Bills and Buccaneers.
• As a duo, Goff and Campbell are 18-2-1 ATS when facing teams scoring 24 PPG or more on the season – Detroit’s two ATS losses have come to Josh Allen and Baker Mayfield.
• Washington played the perfect game last week, with zero punts. Teams with 2 punts or less in their last playoff game, who are 6+ pt dogs the next week are 0-8 SU since 2002.
• Commanders are in a tough spot in this one. Teams on the 3rd game or later of a road trip are 45-72 SU (39%) since 2003, losing by over 3 PPG. These teams are 5-13 SU the last three seasons. When that team is a dog on the end of a road trip, they are 21-60 SU (26%), including 1-12 SU in the last 13 games in this spot.

RAMS AT EAGLES (-6) | TOTAL: 44

• Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 35-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 17-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 18-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
• In Hurts’ career, he is 27-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 15-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU, and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
• The Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 13-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-7 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 24-12 in those quarters in the second half.
• It is expected to be around 35 degrees with some rain or snow and light wind in the forecast. Stafford has started just one game in 40-degree or colder temperatures outdoors over the last three years – earlier this season at the Jets. Rams scored 19 pts, and won 19-9 in New York.
• We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 15-0 SU and 13-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
• In franchise history, the Eagles have never lost at home in the Divisional Round. They are 6-0 SU, covering the spread in 5 of those games.
• Eagles are streaking entering this NFC Divisional Round. They’ve won three in a row both SU and ATS, the only team from the Wild Card round, on normal rest or less, playing this week. Teams on such a streak in the playoffs last decade are just 7-15 SU and 8-14 ATS, with the under 16-6 in those games.
• Not just the streak, Philly’s defense has been stellar. They’ve allowed 13 pts or less in three straight games entering this playoff game. Last 20 years, we’ve seen just eight teams on a 3+ game SU/ATS win streak, who have allowed 13 pts or less in three straight. Those teams went 2-6 SU and 1-7-1 ATS in their playoff game. The last three teams scored a total of 10 combined pts in their games (‘21 BAL, ‘16 HOU, ‘15 IND).
• In December or later, Matthew Stafford entered this season 6-24 SU as an underdog. In 2024, he is now 3-0 SU as an underdog, winning by 8.7 PPG in those matchups.
• In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 4-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
• Rams started the season 1-4 SU and are now a win away from the NFC Championship game. Rams are the 17th team to start 1-4 SU or worse and make the playoffs in the Super Bowl era, and none made it to the Super Bowl.
• In his coaching career, he’s 16-7 ATS on short rest, going 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in this spot, including 12-2 ATS in his last 14 games on short rest. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 8-2 ATS on short rest.

RAVENS AT BILLS (+1) | TOTAL: 51.5

• This is the 5th time Lamar Jackson has faced Josh Allen. Baltimore is 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in those games. The spread has only closed below 3 in one of their games, the 2020-21 playoff game won by the Bills in Buffalo.
• As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 30-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
• If Lamar closes as an underdog, he is 9-6 SU and 12-3 ATS in that role, including 14-1 in a 6-pt teaser as an underdog. As a dog, Lamar is covering the spread by 7.4 PPG.
• Only six times in Lamar’s career has he opened as an underdog and ended up closing as the favorite, he is 6-0 SU and ATS in those games, covering the spread by 9.1 PPG.
• Favorites in night games are 48-13 SU (79%) this season. Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win percentage of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.

• Three of the four matchups this week are rematches of games already played this season: Chiefs/Texans, Eagles/Rams, Bills/Ravens. Last decade in the playoffs, teams who played rematches in the same season, the team who won the previous game is 42-24 SU (64%) and 35-29-2 ATS in the rematch. For Baltimore, teams to win by 20+ pts in that first game are 10-1 SU and 7-4 ATS last decade.

• Ravens downed the Steelers last week. The week after facing the Steelers, Baltimore is 4-0 SU/ATS over the last two seasons, including 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after facing Pittsburgh.
• The Ravens are 27-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive now just twice – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest, and last week vs. Steelers.
• Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second-half spread in 11 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 15-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL.
• Josh Allen faces a much-improved Ravens defense. Ravens have allowed only 20.8 PPG this season and allowed just 14 points in the Wild Card Round. Allen vs. teams allowing less than 21 PPG is 27-12-1 ATS (69%).
• When opponents score 21 pts or more against the Bills, Buffalo is just 4-22 ATS since 2022, which is the worst ATS mark for any team in the NFL. During that same span, the Ravens are 9-12-2 ATS in that spot, the 3rd-best ATS mark in the NFL.
• The Bills are an NFL-best 14-4 to the over on their team total this season. This includes going 8-1 to the over at home.