My thoughts and picks for tomorrow’s games.
Catch the Wise Guy Roundtable tomorrow morning at 8am EST to hear us argue our favorite picks.
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NFL WEEK 11 CONTEST PICKS
PHI -3.5
SF -6.5
CLE -1
CIN +2
GB -5.5
RAMS/PATRIOTS
Stafford has thrown an INT now in six straight games, tied for the longest streak of his career and the second-longest active streak in the NFL behind Jordan Love (eight straight).
Sean McVay is 18-5 SU as a favorite against the AFC as coach of the Rams, and he's 10-2 against the AFC on the road.
As a big favorite on the road, McVay has been nearly flawless. As a favorite of six or more points, McVay is 13-0 SU away from home, including 17-0 SU as a favorite of more than four points.
On the other end, Jerod Mayo has faced an opponent on short rest twice already with New England, and his team is 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 points per game.
In terms of preparing teams for a game on short rest and prep, no coach is better than McVay. In his coaching career, he’s 14-6 ATS on short rest, covering five straight games and going 10-1 ATS in his last 11 games in this spot. With Stafford as his QB, McVay is 6-1 ATS on short rest.
Rams are off a home loss as a favorite last week and are now road favorites of a field goal or more. Those such teams are 95-68-7 ATS (58%) since 2003. Those teams are 5-2 ATS this season and 29-15-2 ATS since 2020.
THIS IS SIMPLE. MY PATRIOTS SUCK AND RAMS ARE A SOLID TEAM. RAMS HAD A BAD WEEK LAST WEEK AND I FULLY EXPECT THEM TO BE MOVTIVATED TO GET BACK ON TRACK. MCVAY WON’T HAVE HIS TEAM FEELING LIKE THE SEASON IS OVER, INSTEAD HE WILL BE COACHING LIKE THE SEASON IS ON THE LINE. RAMS ARE THE BETTER AND MORE EXPERIENCED TEAM I SEE THEM LIGHTING UP MY PATRIOTS.
BETS I’VE MADE:
LAR -4.5
RAVENS/STEELERS
Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 28-10-3 ATS (74%).
The underdog is 15-2-1 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 5.7 points per game.
In the regular season, the underdog is 23-6-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh.
When Tomlin is a favorite vs Harbaugh, he's 6-12-1 ATS. When he’s the 'dog, he's 12-2-2 ATS.
Tomlin is 3-0 SU/ATS as an underdog this season. His 62-35-4 ATS record as an underdog makes him the most profitable coach ATS as a 'dog over the last 20 years.
Final margin between the Steelers and Ravens since 2020: 7, 7, 3, 2, 3, 1, 5, 4
Since the start of 2015, Steelers-Ravens have played 18 games, 15 of those 18 games had a final margin of seven or fewer points.
John Harbaugh has been incredible playing on the road with extra prep. 40-19 SU in his coaching career – 19-9 SU at home, 21-10 SU road/neutral.
Jackson is 56-35-2 against the first half spread in his career, making him the best quarterback against the spread in the first in the last 20 years (262 QBs).
Mike Tomlin vs Lamar Jackson is 4-0 ATS.
THIS GAME IS TOUGH. I’M ON THE STEELERS HERE BUT DON’T FEEL GREAT. I CAN’T IGNORE THE HISTORY BETWEEN THESE TWO TEAMS WITH THE GAMES ALWAYS BEING CLOSE. BUT I ALSO BELIEVE WHEN A 7-2 TEAM IS A 3 POINT HOME DOG IT’S FOR A REASON. I FIND IT CRAZY THAT LAMAR HAS ONLY PLAYED THE STEELERS 4 TIMES, ALL THOSE TIMES HE HAS NOT COVERED THE SPREAD. WILSON IS 3-0 SINCE TAKING OVER AS QB FOR THE STEELERS AND THEIR OFFENSE HAS SHOWN THE ABILITY TO SCORE SINCE THEN. I THINK THE BEST BET IN THIS GAME IS TO COUNT ON IT BEING CLOSE WHICH MEANS TEASING THE STEELERS UP TO 10 IS A GOOD PLAY. IN THE TOMLIN/HARBAUGH ERA THE SPREAD HAS LANDED 3 OR LESS 18 OF 35 TIMES. NFL AVERAGE FOR THIS IS 26%.
BETS I’VE MADE:
PIT +3
PIT TEASED TO +10
BAL 1H ML / PIT +3.5 FOR THE GAME +400
JAGUARS/LIONS
Lions are currently 13-point favorites vs. Jaguars this weekend. Detroit hasn’t closed as this high a favorite since December of 1995 as a 13.5-point favorite against, of course, the Jaguars in their inaugural season.
Jared Goff has finished .500 ATS or better at home in six straight seasons and is 3-1 ATS this year. In that span since 2018, Goff is 33-19-2 ATS (64%) at home, the best mark of any QB in the NFL.
In his career, Goff has closed as a double-digit favorite 11 times. His teams are 9-2 SU and 7-4 ATS. This would be the second time since joining the Lions he closes as a double-digit favorite after beating the Titans 52-14 a few weeks ago.
Goff threw five interceptions last week against the Texans. Teams to throw four or more INT in their previous game are just 31-47-2 ATS (40%) in their next game dating back to 2013, including 13-27-2 ATS as a favorite.
HOW CAN YOU FADE THIS LIONS TEAM RIGHT NOW, ESPECIALLY AT HOME? ALL THEY DO IS WIN AND COVER AT HOME AND THEY DON’T EVEN NEED THEIR OFFENSE TO DO IT. JAGS ARE DONE. WHAT FIGHT DO THEY HAVE LEFT IN THEM? IF I HAD TO PLAY IT I WOULD LAY THE -13.5 WITH THE LIONS.
BETS I HAVE MADE:
TEASED LIONS TO -7.5
BROWNS/SAINTS
In Derek Carr’s career, he is 29-41-1 ATS after a SU win, the third-least profitable QB in the NFL since 2003. The only active QB worse is Kirk Cousins.
When Carr is coming off a SU win as an underdog, he's 15-22 ATS in his career.
Last week vs. Falcons, Saints broke a five-game losing streak both SU and ATS. Teams after breaking a skid SU and ATS of five or more games are just 14-31 SU in their next game since 1990.
On extended prep, Kevin Stefanski is just 5-9 ATS as a head coach. He's .500 ATS or worse in all four seasons in this spot.
One of Jameis Winston’s Achilles heels has been playing tight spread games. In his career, he is 13-24-3 ATS when the spread is three or fewer points either way. Of 244 QBs since 2003, he's the least profitable one.
Since 2018 the Saints are 22-34 ATS at home and 34-22-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral), the fifth-best road/neutral team ATS in the NFL and the second-worst home team.
LOVE THE BROWNS IN THIS SPOT. COMING OFF A BYE AND GOING ON THE ROAD AGAINST A TEAM THAT IS DYSFUNCTIONAL NOW. FEELS LIKE THE SAINTS GOT THE MONKEY OFF THEIR BACK BY GETTING THE WIN LAST WEEK. BROWNS ARE PLAYING BETTER WITH WINSTON UNDER CENTER AND I THINK THEY’RE EXCITED TO HAVE A QB WHO CAN ACTUALLY GET THEM THE BALL AND MAKE PLAYS. BROWNS OPENED AS A SLIGHT DOG AND NOW IS A FAVORITE. I’LL TAKE THEM TO WIN THIS GAME.
BETS I’VE MADE:
CLE -1
COLTS/JETS
Jets defense since Saleh’s firing has been terrible. Since Week 6, Jets are dead last in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, 29th in pass EPA and 30th in rush EPA. Jets have allowed the sixth-most points since Week 6 and have only forced one turnover.
Rodgers owns the fourth-worst completion percentage above expected for any qualified QB this year
Colts have turned the ball over at least twice in three straight games. Teams to play on the road after turning it over at least twice in three or more consecutive games are 40-72 SU, 51-60-1 ATS over the last decade. The Jaguars are also in this spot this week.
THIS GAME IS GROSS. CAN’T TRUST THE JETS BUT ALSO I DON’T KNOW WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE OUT OF RICHARDSON. I’LL PASS ON THIS GAME.
VIKINGS/TITANS
As a starter, Will Levis is 4-11 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-8 SU/ATS as a starter. He has scored more than 17 points once in those nine games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he's 2-10 SU/ATS as a starter.
The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year, ranking first in EPA/play, second in success rate, third EPA/dropback and first EPA/rush.
LOVE THE VIKINGS HERE. OFFENSE HAS SLOWED DOWN BUT I EXPECT THAT TO PICK BACK UP. VIKINGS DEFENSE HAS BEEN AMAZING WITH FLORES MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR OPPOSING QBS. LEVIS IS TERRIBLE SO I CAN ONLY IMAGINE WHAT FLORES HAS PLANNED FOR HIM.
BETS I HAVE MADE:
VIKINGS -6
LEVIS TO THROW AN INT -162
RAIDERS/DOLPHINS
The Raiders are on a five-game SU losing streak and coming off a bye week. Over the last 20 years, teams off a SU losing streak of five or more games & a bye are 11-17 SU but 19-9-1 ATS, covering the spread by 3.5 points per game.
Minshew is coming off the bench for the second time this season.
Minshew has started 19 games as a road underdog and is is 4-15 SU and 6-13 ATS. That 6-13 ATS mark is the worst of 114 QBs since Minshew made his first start.
Since the start of last season, the Dolphins have played three home games directly after a night game the previous week and are 3-0 SU/ATS. They were favored in all three and scored 30 or more points in each.
Overall in Tua Tagovailoa’s pro career, he has closed as a favorite of six or more points 14 times. Miami is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS in those games, with its only SU loss coming to the Titans on Monday Night Football last season. That makes the Dolphins 12-0 SU and 10-2 ATS outside of that night/primetime window in this spot.
MY INITIAL FEELING WAS TO TAKE THE POINTS WITH THE RAIDERS IN THIS ONE. BUT THE MORE I DUG INTO THE NUMBERS AND THOUGHT ABOUT IT I THINK THIS IS A GAME THAT MIAMI WINS EASY. I THINK THE RAIDERS ARE GOING TO BE A MORE RUN HEAVY TEAM THIS GAME, WHICH MAKES ME LEAN TO THE UNDER. I DO THINK GOING BACK TO MINSHEW MEANS LESS OF A RISK OF TURNOVERS FOR THE RAIDERS. MAYBE EVEN LOOK AT HIM TO NOT THROW AN INT. ALSO LEAN TO THE OVER THINKING THE DOLPHINS WON’T WANT TO PUT TUA AT RISK IF THEY ARE PLAYING WITH A LEAD.
BETS I’VE MADE:
DOLPHINS -7
TEASE DOLPHINS TO -1
PACKERS/BEARS
The Bears have been an incredible fade in divisional matchups the past few seasons, going a pathetic 8-21-1 ATS vs. the Lions, Packers and Vikings since 2019, losing a $100 bettor $1,338, That makes Chicago the least profitable team vs. its own division in the NFL in that span. The Jets are second-worst on that list.
The Packers are coming off a bye this week and on the road in Chicago. Road favorites off a bye are 76-51-4 ATS (60%) since 2004.
The Bears have lost 10 consecutive games both SU and ATS vs. the Packers entering this week. Chicago hasn’t covered or won against Green Bay since 2018.
LOVE THE PACKERS HERE. THERE IS CHAOS IN CHICAGO. HOW DO YOU ONLY PUT UP 3 POINTS AGAINST THE PATRIOTS WHEN YOU’RE AT HOME? BEARS DEALING WITH SOME INJURIES AS THEIR OFFENSIVE LINE IS BANGED UP AND BOTH GUARDS ARE QUESTIONABLE TO PLAY TOMORROW. I CAN’T LOOK PAST THE HISTORY OF THE PACKERS OWNING THE BEARS (AS RODGERS FAMOUSLY SAID A FEW SEASON AGO). NOTHING ABOUT THE BEARS OFFENSE GIVES ME CONFIDENCE THEY CAN STAY IN THIS GAME AND WE HAVE SEEN EVEN IN COLLEGE THAT WHEN THINGS GET TOUGH WILLIAMS IS OKAY WITH JUST ROLLING OVER. BEARS HAVE NO FIGHT IN THEM.
BETS I’VE MADE:
PACKERS -5.5
PACKERS TEASED TO +0.5
FALCONS/BRONCOS
Not hard to get over Kansas City. Broncos have won eight consecutive games outright in their game directly after facing one of their division rival in the Chiefs — and they're 7-1 ATS in those games, too.
Over the last decade, Cousins is 39-21 ATS after a SU loss, the most-profitable QB in the NFL.
Nix has only closed as a favorite three times in his 10 career starts, and he is 3-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 11.5 points per game. Nix is the lone remaining QB undefeated ATS as a favorite this year
In outdoor games, Cousins has won six starts in a row outright and is 11-3 SU over the last three seasons.
THIS GAME IS TOUGH BUT I LEAN FALCONS. I HAVE BRONCOS TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS SO A WIN HERE WOULD HELP ME WITH THAT BET. I TEND TO SIDE WITH THE VETERAN QB OVER THE ROOKIE BUT I DON’T HAVE A STRONG FEEL IN THIS GAME AND IT WOULDN’T SURPRISE ME WHOEVER WINS THIS GAME. LOVE TEASING THE FALCONS IN THIS SPOT.
BETS I HAVE MADE:
FALCONS TEASED TO +8.5
SEAHAWKS/49ERS
SEATTLE JUST ANNOUNCED THEIR STARTING CENTER HAS DECIDED TO RETIRE MID SEASON AT THE AGE OF 27. NOT GREAT WHEN YOU’RE GETTING READY TO FACE A DIVISIONAL RIVAL.
The 49ers have dominated this series recently. They’ve beaten the Seahawks in six straight games outright, going 5-1 ATS in those games.
BIG DAY FOR PURDY? In over 800 pass attempts since the start of last season, Purdy is averaging nine yards per pass attempt, the best mark in the NFL by 0.6 yards over second-place Lamar Jackson.
In Geno Smith’s career, he's 0-5 SU/ATS vs. Kyle Shanahan, failing to cover the spread by 8.8 points per game.
THIS IS MY FAVORITE BET OF THE WEEK. I’M ALL OVER 49ERS HERE. I UNDERSTAND ALL THE ANALYTICS AND “SHARPS” WILL TELL YOU THAT TAKING THE +6.5 WITH THE HAWKS IS THE RIGHT PLAY. AND EVERY YEAR THEY ARE WRONG. THE 49ERS OWN THE SEAHAWKS. IT’S ONE OF THOSE WEIRD THINGS IN THE NFL. THEY HAVE ALREADY BEATEN AND COVERED AGAINST THE HAWKS ONCE THIS SEASON. MAYBE IF THE 49ERS WERE JUST A 1 LOSS TEAM COULD I SEE AN UPSET HERE, BUT THEY CAN’T AFFORD A LOSS. THEY ALSO HAVEN’T LOOKED SHARP OFFENSIVELY THIS SEASON. WHAT BETTER WAY TO GET RIGHT THAN AGAINST A TEAM YOU DOMINATE AND YOU’RE HOME. YOU’RE GOING TO HEAR ALL ABOUT THIS BEING A DIVISION GAME AND THOSE ARE CLOSE, SEATTLE COMING OFF A BYE, SEATTLE GETTING REVENGE, NINERS ARE OVERRATED. IGNORE ALL OF THAT. NINERS ARE GOING TO DOMINATE THIS GAME AND WIN BY 17+, EASILY COVERING THE SPREAD HERE.
BETS I’VE MADE:
SF -6.5
TEASED SF DOWN
PLEASED SF TO -12.5
SF TT OVER 27.5
PURDY UNDER 31.5 PASS ATTEMPTS
PURDY OVER 1.5 PASS TDS -162
JUAN JENNINGS TD +210
PURDY OVER 260.5 PASS YARDS
CHIEFS/BILLS
Patrick Mahomes is 4-3 SU/ATS vs. Josh Allen. Entering the game, Allen is tied with Burrow and Tom Brady for the most wins against Mahomes in his career.
Mahomes is 11-3 straight up as an underdog (12-1-1 ATS). That is the best straight-up mark as a 'dog in the Super Bowl era for a QB with at least 10 starts.
Mahomes is 25-10 SU, 26-8-1 ATS in his career as a favorite of three or fewer points or an underdog.
We know Mahomes is Houdini. He's 19-14 SU (57.6%) when trailing by 10 or more points at any point in the game. The next closest win percentage for any QB is Tom Brady at about 38%.
Mahomes is a road warrior. In his career, he's 48-12 SU on the road or neutral site. When he’s -3 or lower, or an underdog, he’s 19-5 SU on the road or a neutral site.
As a home favorite of 3 or fewer points, or an underdog, Josh Allen is 7-3 SU/ATS since 2020, covering the spread by 9.6 points per game. Two of those three losses have come against Patrick Mahomes.
When Allen is at home vs. an undefeated team, Allen is 4-0 ATS, covering by 12 points per game.
I LOVE THE BILLS HERE. THIS IS ONE OF MY BIGGEST BETS OF THE WEEKEND. KC JUST PUT THEIR KICKER (BUTKER) ON IR AND HAD TO PICK UP A GUY OF THE COUCH. COULD BE HUGE ADVANTAGE FOR THE BILLS IN WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A CLOSE GAME (ALL THE CHIEFS DO IS PLAY CLOSE GAMES). AT SOME POINT THE UNDEFEATED SEASON IS GOING TO WEIGH ON THEM. LOOK AT THE 07’ PATRIOTS, THEY DOMINATED THE FIRST 10 GAMES OF THE SEASON WITH BRADY AVERAGING 3.8 TDS PER GAME. THEN THEY STRUGGLED DOWN THE STRETCH CHASING PERFECTION. MAHOMES ISN’T EVEN PLAYING WELL RIGHT NOW WHICH IS A REASON WHY THESE GAMES ARE CLOSE. I MAKE THE ARGUMENT THAT THE CHIEFS WON’T BE MAD AT A LOSS HERE. THEY’LL STILL HAVE THE 1 SEED AND THEY CAN GET THE PRESSURE OF THE UNDEFEATED SEASON OFF THEIR BACKS AND FOCUS ON THE 3 PEAT. CHIEFS DEFENSE IS DEALING WITH SOME INJURIES AND SO FAR THAT HAS NOT HURT THEM ON THE FIELD. PROBABLY BECAUSE THEY PLAYED THE RAIDERS, BUCS, AND BRONCOS IN THEIR LAST 3 GAMES. CHIEFS DEFENSE IS GREAT AT STOPPING THE RUN BUT I COULD SEE BILLS NOT EVEN ATTEMPTING THAT AND LETTING ALLEN ATTACK THEM THROW THE AIR. BOTTOM LINE, BILLS LOOK TO BE PLAYING BETTER BALL RIGHT NOW AND THE CHIEFS SEEM TO BE HANGING ON BY A THREAD. THE NARRATIVE WILL BE ALL ABOUT MAHOMES AS A DOG IS REALLY GOOD, WHICH HE IS, BUT I THINK THIS TEAM IS TIRED AND THE BILLS AT HOME ARE THE BETTER TEAM.
BETS I’VE MADE:
BILLS -1
BILLS TT OVER 23.5 -125
OVER 46.5
BILLS TEASED TO +5
BENGALS/CHARGERS
The Chargers have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 70-39 SU (64%) since Lamar Jackson became the starter in 2018, which is the best win percentage for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire,” “Lamar is coming.”
Herbert has struggled against the second-half spread in his career (32.8% ATS), but even more so at night at 4-13-1 2H ATS in his career.
Chargers aren’t historically great home teams. Entering this matchup, they’ve covered two in a row at home. Los Angeles hasn't covered the spread – an ATS win – in three straight home games since the 2014 season.
Joe Burrow has been listed as an underdog 29 times in his NFL career, and he's 11-17-1 SU and 19-10 ATS in those games. In 2024, he is 2-1 ATS as an underdog and 11-3 ATS as a 'dog in his last 14 starts in that spot.
Burrow has been especially dangerous on the road as a 'dog, going 14-6 ATS in his career and covering the spread by more than four points per game. As an underdog in night games, Burrow is 0-6 SU but 4-2 ATS.
Burrow bounceback? Burow is 18-7-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 16-6-1 ATS in November or earlier.
BENGALS ARE ONE OF MY FAVORITE PLAYS THIS WEEK. THIS IS THE SEASON ON THE LINE FOR THE BENGALS. NO HOME FIELD ADVANTAGE FOR THE CHARGERS. WHO HAVE THE CHARGERS ACTUALLY BEAT? GO LOOK AT THE QBS THEY HAVE PLAYED. IT’S NOT IMPRESSIVE. IF YOU FLIPPED ALL THE 1 SCORE LOSSES THE BENGALS HAVE THEY WOULD BE 8-2 THIS SEASON. NOW THAT’S JUST THE NFL BUT IT DOES TELL US THE BENGALS ARE GOOD AND THEY ARE IN COMPETITIVE GAMES.
BETS I HAVE MADE:
BENGALS +2
TEASED BENGALS UP TO +8
