Just incase I can't get the main article out before kickoff, here's what you need to know for the game tonight.
WEEK 2 STATS, TRENDS, AND BETS
TNF: BILLS AT DOLPHINS
Current Odds: Dolphins -2, O/U 49
GAME FORECAST: 83*F Mostly Cloudy, Winds 3.43 SSE
STATS/TRENDS:
-Thursday home teams are 37-51 ATS since 2019. When the spread is 4 or less, home teams in this spot are 19-28 ATS.
-Josh Allen is 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS in week 2. Bills have won five straight week 2 games SU.
-Josh Allen and the Bills have lost by 6 or less (or won the game) 42 games in a row. Bills are a great teaser leg.
-Tua is 2-1 SU in week 2 games, only lossing to Josh Allen.
-Allen is 4-2-1 ATS against Tua and covers the spread by 12.1 PPG
-Bills failed to cover the spread week 1. They have only started the season 0-2 ATS three times since 2003, and haven't done so since 2018.
-Bills came back from 14+ points down to win in week 1. Teams who play on the road after a SU win where they had a 14+ point comeback are 54-90 SU and 61-82-2 ATS in their next game.
-Weeks 1-4 Tua is 4-1 SU at home and Mike McDaniels is 4-0 SU in that spot
-Tua is 29-23-1 ATS in his career BUT is 18-9-1 ATS at home, along with being 26-14-1 ATS when playing in the eastern time zone
-Week 1 was the 4th time the Dolphins overcame a deficit of 14+ points under MIke McDaniel, which is the most in the NFL since 2022.
MY THOUGHTS/BET(S):
-I may be biased with my anti Bills take for the season. But what we saw on Sunday was this Bills team can't do anything unless it's Josh Allen playing Superman. Yet, I can't ignore how the Bills have had the Dolphins number under Allen. Just look at last year, the Dolphins had a chance to win the division week 18 with the game being in Miami and they collapsed. Now, you might say that this was late in the season where the Dolphins have been terrible under McDaniels and this game is early in the season, and you would have an argument.
-I also cannot ignore that the Bills have played 42 straight games where they have either won OR lost by 6 or less points.
-Therefore, my best bet for today's game is to tease the Bills up to 8.5 with another game on Sunday that you like. Viable options to me are Ravens, Packers, SEA/NE under, Chiefs, and Broncos. I will be doing a 3 leg teaser like I always do.
-I also lean to the over and don't mind it as a teaser leg, although teasing totals isn't always the best.
-Props I like are Josh Allen over rushing yards, Knox over receiving yards, Waddle TD, and Tua over passing yards.
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Here's where the money is at in MLB today!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html
Here's today's games!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html
NFL 2026 Power Rankings
Here’s how I rank each team. I grade them vs an average team and what I believe the odds would be for that team if they played an average team on a neutral field.
For example, Rams +6 means I think the Rams are 6 points better than an average team on a neutral. Meaning that’s what I think the spread should be. I use this to find out what the spread should be compared to what the odds makers list. So if the Rams are +6 and facing a team at home that is +2 on a neutral, the net would be +4 plus homefield advantage. So I would have the Rams as a -5.5 to -6 favorite in this scenario at home (giving home field +1.5 to +2). If the books have the line at Rams -3.5 that would be a play for me due to my rankings have it at -5.5 to -6.
These rankings will adjust throughout the season as we get more data. I do not like to start a team higher than +6 or lower than -6 even if it might be deserved because there is so much unknown and variance in each game. If I were to ranking higher than this window to start the season I ...
The biggest discrepancies between MY power rankings and the current betting lines for week 1.
Lions -7 vs Saints - I make it Lions -4.5 – 2.5 points of implied value on the Saints
Steelers -3 vs Falcons - I make it Steelers -1.5 — 1.5 points of implied value on Falcons plus getting the key number of 3.
Bills -1.5 @ Texans - I make it pick’em (even) — 1.5 points of implied value on Texans (great teaser team)
Eagles -4.5 vs Commanders - I make it Eagles -7 — 2.5 points of implied value on Eagles
What does this mean? This will be my starting point to dive deeper to see why the market doesn’t match up with my numbers. If I feel like I am right then this will be a play for me. Time to do homework this next week!
What do you think?
College Football Classic - TCU 10 - 15 UNC
This is a crosspost from my post over on Sportspicks. On Saturday the 2026 College Football season kicked off at the Aviva Stadium in Lansdowne Road, Dublin. Opening the college football season in Ireland has become a regular feature of the schedule, with the Irish time zone leading to midday football if you are on the east coast and morning football if you are elsewhere in the USA. This year the College Football Classic was contested by the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels. TCU were the administrative home team and thus had a significant share of the ticket allotment and indeed, most of the jerseys I saw when I was at the pub before the game were the purple of TCU. Although it is the convention to display the away team first in American sports, I noted that TCU were listed first on the scoreboards, which is in keeping with the convention of European sports so I have reproduced it as a feature of the venue. As the ...
NFL WEEK 3 CARD
SIDES AND ML
TEN +3.5 +100
TEN ML +174
CAR +5.5
CAR ML +203
LV +3.5
LV ML +148
GB -7.5
MIN -3
LAR +3 +104
LAR ML +165
HOU ML +110
DEN +3 -120
NO +7.5
TEASERS
POOL
MIA +17.5
MIA/BUF O 44.5
CAR +11.5
LV +9.5
GB -1.5
HOU +7
DEN +9
NO +13.5
LAR +9
NYJ +12.5
MY TEASER PICKS
MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155
LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150
CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150
LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
