Sorry the card is out later than usual I didn't want to rush it this morning. I even thought about sending out a couple picks and doing this card now but decided not to. And OF COURSE the two picks I played this morning (SEA ML +178 and Knicks ML) both won. But hey I more than paid for the UFC PPV for tonight!
Today's card is going to mainly focus on UFC as I really like this card and think we have a huge edge in a couple of these fights. Any of you who are new to betting UFC my advice is to take it slow just make a few small unit bets. Or just follow what I'm giving you because we are going to win BIG!
LOCK OF THE DAY
Shevchenko ML -500
THE CARD (EXCLUDING UFC PICKS)
Yankees ML -114 (3*)
I know it's hard to see the Yankees winning 3 in a row based on how they have performed this year thus far, but they have their ace on the mound and I don't see them losing with Cole pitching.
Blue Jays ML +125 (2*)
Rangers ML +155 (2*)
Giants -1.5 +142 (2*)
Pacers ML -190 (2*)
Bulls +4 (2*)
Bulls/Heat over 203 (2*)
UFC 261 BREAKDOWN
Smith v Crute
Pick: Smith ML +190, Smith via KO/TKO +700
I think we are getting good value here on Smith. The guy was just a top contender for the belt and could have won it but took the honorable way when Jon Jones landed an illegal hit on him. Crute is the new up and comer that the UFC likes. He has yet to face someone like Smith and does not have near the experience as Smith. We are getting great value for a guy who if he loses (Smith) probably doesn't have many more fights left in the UFC. I'll bet on the desperate fighter and take the plus money with him.
Weidman v Hall
Pick: Weidman -143
This was probably the hardest pick for me to make because I like Hall and the guy has incredible talent. But he's a head case meaning he gets in his own way. If he doesn't want to be there he has a terrible performance and he admits that himself. These two fought a decade ago as they were both coming up and Weidman landed a 1st round TKO. What gives me hesitation on the Weidman side is he went up to 205 and failed. Came back down to 185 and got a W but has he lost a step? Since losing his belt he hasn't been the same. I think he belongs at 185 and his hopes to get another title shot is why I'll be betting him tonight with Hall's state of mind being the biggest factor for me to stay away from him. I may even wait to watch the walkouts before betting this and will tweet out if I have a different thought.
Andrade v Shevchenko
Picks: Shevchenko -500, under 4.5 -135, Shevchenko via sub +500
This is the lock of the day for a reason. The only person beating Shevchenko is Amanda Nunes. Andrade is the smaller fighter and is in over her head with this fight.
Namajunes v Zhang
Pick: Namajunes via KO/TKO +650, under 4.5 +105
The smart side is probably taking Zhang at -200 but my money will be on Rose here. I rewatched the Zhang fight from last year that was fight of the year and she def deserves to be champ but if she allows Rose to land punches and exchange I think she's going down because Rose has A LOT of power behind those punches. The only thing that makes me nervous is Rose is a head case and has pulled out of fights in the past. If she's going to win I think there's more value on taking her to win by KO/TKO because to me that's the only way she wins other than a lucky submission.
Masvidal v Usman
Pick: Masvidal via KO/TKO +400 AND Usman via KO/TKO
I don't think this is going to decision again as both guys have talked about wanting to make a statement win and knocking each other out. I think we see them go for broke and someone gets finished so I'll bet on both to do so and hope someone comes through.