COWBOYS AT GIANTS
FORCAST: 73, WINDS 5.7 MPH SSW
TRENDS/STATS:
- Giants are off a massive road win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 94-125-10 ATS (42.9%).
- Giants got a massive road win last week breaking the longest active ATS losing streak of Daniel Jones.
- Dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs, Daniel Jones had lost 9 consecutive games ATS, with his last ATS win coming against the Vikings in the playoffs in January 2023.
- Once again, Daniel Jones finds himself in primetime.
- Jones is 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS at night in his career, including 0-6 SU at home at night.
- Since 2003, Jones’ 1-13 SU (7%) mark is the lowest win percentage among all quarterbacks with minimum 5 starts.
- In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-18-1 SU, 22-16 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 5-21 SU, 11-15 ATS (lost 6 straight ATS).
- The 5-21 SU mark after 1p ET is ranked 254th of 258 QBs in ML profitability in the last 20 years and is the worst mark by win pct minimum 20 starts.
- Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 32-14-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 18-33 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
- His 32-14-2 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 258 QBs last 20 years, behind only Tom Brady. When he faces a “bad” NFC East opponent, Dak is 14-3 ATS, covering the spread by 9.3 PPG.
- Dak Prescott has historically relished the role of a favorite. He is 50-38-2 ATS (57%) as a favorite in his career, including 27-14 ATS as a favorite since 2021.
- Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,641) | 37-45-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,024).
- Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
- In his career, Dak is 12-2 SU/ATS at night vs. NFC East teams, winning and covering 10 in a row dating back to 2017.
- Dak is 10-4 ATS vs. Giants in his career, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road in New York, not losing since 2016.
- The Giants are Dak’s most profitable opponent ATS in his career.
- Thursday home teams are just 38-52 ATS since 2019, including 34-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
- Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 59% ATS over the last 20 years and are 2-0 ATS in 2024 with the Colts cover in Week 1 vs. Texans and Rams over 49ers in Week 3.
- Malik Nabers has 37 targets through three career games. 3rd-most for a rookie, with Puka leading the list last year.
- Most Targets, Through 3 Career Games as Rookie
42 – Puka Nacua, 2023
38 – Terry Glenn, 1996
37 – Nabers, 2024
- Most Targets, Through 3 Career Games as Rookie
- Cowboys are allowing 5.4 yds per rush, most in NFL this year.
- Brandon Aubrey has turned into a weapon for Dallas. Aubrey is 15-15 from 50+ yards in his career and 23-23 from 40+ yards. He has 35 total pts this season.
- That breaks a tie with Blair Walsh for most consecutive 50+ Yd FG without a miss to begin a kicker’s career in NFL history.
- Mike McCarthy is 57% ATS in his career after a SU loss. In September after a loss, he is 9-6-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4 PPG.
- McCarthy in Sept-Oct: 71-50-3 ATS (2nd-best last 20 years for any coach behind just Bill Belichick).
MY THOUGHTS/BETS:
- I think the Cowboys roll here. We have seen division opponents have each other's number and the Cowboys seem to have the Giants number of late. How do you beat the Cowboy? You run on them. Can the Giants run on these Cowboys? I don't think so. The numbers favor Giants this season compared to the Cowboys in the running game, but it's a small sample size and the Cowboys are not a running team.
- Normally I would be ALL OVER kicker props when Aubrey is playing. But I have a weird feeling the Cowboys could just score TDs in this game and he won't get a chance at many FGs. So I may look to bet his fantasy points over or his XPs over instead or just pass all together.
- DO NOT TEASE DALLAS DOWN! Unless the ML is -285 or higher. When playing a 6 point teaser each leg is worth -285. Therefore, when looking at the Cowboys ML right now it's -250 which is 35 cents better AND you don't have to worry about another leg. Simply put, if you want to tease the Cowboys it's cheaper to just bet their ML right now.
- Other bets I'm on:
- Cooks TD +230
- Cooks 50+ yards +175
- Cowboys -16.5 +332
- Cowboys win 1H and Game: -120
- Dak 2+ TDs -150, Dak 3+ TDs +270
- Elliott under 26.5 rush yards
- Cowboys TT over 27.5 +136
