CJ Stroud has made 22 starts in his NFL career. He is 10-12 ATS – 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Stroud is 2-7 ATS in the NFL, worst mark in the NFL since he was drafted last year.
When Stroud faces a defense allowing 21 PPG or less, he’s 1-5 ATS in his last six starts, and the one win was last week vs. Bills – a game a lot of people thought they should have lost.
Since 2000, the Patriots have closed +6 or higher at home seven times and NE is 5-1-1 ATS.
Texans and Dolphins got their first cover of the season last week. Teams after losing at least four games in a row ATS, who break the streak are just 24-37 SU in their next game, including 13-25 SU on the road.
NE is 1-4 ATS on the season.
Since 2000, teams who are below .500 ATS, playing a team with a winning record, and are greater than a 3 point dog are 51-17 ATS. (This also applies to the Panthers this weekend).
MY THOUGHTS:
As great as CJ Stroud is he is experiencing a slight sophmor slump now that NFL teams have a year of tape on him. Also his weapons are missing. Nico Collins was leading the league in rec yards and is OUT. Joe Mixon will be OUT again and Houston's run game doesn't exist.
Patriots defense have been playing respectable, especially at home. With Collins out, I now expect NE's standout CB Christian Gonzalez to lock down Diggs (or whoever their top WR will be for the game). Gonzalez has locked down every WR he has faced this season. So Houston is not going to be able to run the ball and won't have their best WRs to throw too. NE is weak at defending TEs so I wouldn't be surprised if Schultz has a good day.
Houston does have a top 5 pass rush this season and NE has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. But that's where Maye starting helps them since he is a more mobile QB than Brissett. I expect the young QB to make some plays with his legs in this game to keep drives alive.
This game will be ugly and low scoring. I don't see Houston moving the ball down the field easily or getting big chunk plays. In a game like this where you're going to give me a full touchdown I will gladly take the points. Plus the trend on teams below .500 ATS playing a better team and catch more than 3 points historically is too good to pass up.
Would not be surprised if NE pulled off the upset here. I don't think they make this QB switch this week unless they had a game plan for their young QB to have a chance at success.
Here’s how I rank each team. I grade them vs an average team and what I believe the odds would be for that team if they played an average team on a neutral field.
For example, Rams +6 means I think the Rams are 6 points better than an average team on a neutral. Meaning that’s what I think the spread should be. I use this to find out what the spread should be compared to what the odds makers list. So if the Rams are +6 and facing a team at home that is +2 on a neutral, the net would be +4 plus homefield advantage. So I would have the Rams as a -5.5 to -6 favorite in this scenario at home (giving home field +1.5 to +2). If the books have the line at Rams -3.5 that would be a play for me due to my rankings have it at -5.5 to -6.
These rankings will adjust throughout the season as we get more data. I do not like to start a team higher than +6 or lower than -6 even if it might be deserved because there is so much unknown and variance in each game. If I were to ranking higher than this window to start the season I ...
The biggest discrepancies between MY power rankings and the current betting lines for week 1.
Lions -7 vs Saints - I make it Lions -4.5 – 2.5 points of implied value on the Saints
Steelers -3 vs Falcons - I make it Steelers -1.5 — 1.5 points of implied value on Falcons plus getting the key number of 3.
Bills -1.5 @ Texans - I make it pick’em (even) — 1.5 points of implied value on Texans (great teaser team)
Eagles -4.5 vs Commanders - I make it Eagles -7 — 2.5 points of implied value on Eagles
What does this mean? This will be my starting point to dive deeper to see why the market doesn’t match up with my numbers. If I feel like I am right then this will be a play for me. Time to do homework this next week!
This is a crosspost from my post over on Sportspicks. On Saturday the 2026 College Football season kicked off at the Aviva Stadium in Lansdowne Road, Dublin. Opening the college football season in Ireland has become a regular feature of the schedule, with the Irish time zone leading to midday football if you are on the east coast and morning football if you are elsewhere in the USA. This year the College Football Classic was contested by the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels. TCU were the administrative home team and thus had a significant share of the ticket allotment and indeed, most of the jerseys I saw when I was at the pub before the game were the purple of TCU. Although it is the convention to display the away team first in American sports, I noted that TCU were listed first on the scoreboards, which is in keeping with the convention of European sports so I have reproduced it as a feature of the venue. As the ...
It's silly to overreact to one game, especially a preseason game where teams are not at full potential. In the sports betting world you never want to react to a small sample size and instead focus on a trend or team that gives you the most relevant data points possible. But when the small sample size correlates with the long historical trend then IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!
That's EXACTLY what is happening with the Bengals. Last night's game was a pointless preseason game where the Bengals decided to play their starters for the first quarter. It was more of the same of what we saw last season. Burrow had to be a magician to make plays happen, the offensive line could not protect, and their defense couldn't stop a high school team from running on them.
But maybe Burrow is getting exactly what he deserves. Afterall, he took the big payday (which he deserves) and he advocated for the team to pay BOTH his WRs Chase and Higgins instead of spending more money on the offensive line or defense. Here's the current contract for just 3 players on the Bengals:
Burrow: 5 years, $275 million, $219 million guaranteed
Chase: 4 years, $161 million, $112 million guaranteed
Higgins: 4 years, $115 million, $60 million guaranteed
That's $124 million per year for 3 players. The salary cap for the 25 season is $279 million and the Bengals are spending roughly 44% of their cap space on 3 players. Now we all know the cap goes up every year but still you will be spending over a third of your cap on 3 players for the next 4 years.
THE BENGALS NEED TO OPEN THE CHECKBOOK AND START SPENDING MONEY ON OFFENSIVE LINE AND THEIR DEFENSE OR TRADE AWAY BURROW!
The last part of that is not going to happen but should be seriously considered! They are wasting his career and Burrow may go down in the history books as the next Dan Mario. Really good but never had enough around him to win the big game that matters.
What can the Bengals do now? First, they can take care of this Trey Hendrickson situation. Either pay the man or trade him away for draft capital. If this season ends up being a disaster like last season (as I predict) and they are able to secure extra draft pick(s), they will be set up to get one of the top linemen in next year's draft.
Or just pay the man. Normally I would say 1 player does not make a difference on the defense overall, but here's the numbers of when Hendrickson is on the field and when he's not:
#32 pressure rate
#32 completion rate alowed
#32 success rate alowed
#32 passer rating alowed
But when Hendrickson plays, the Bengals pass defense ranks top 12 in each of those categories.
Hendrickson also had back to back 17.5 sack seasons. Only other players to do this in NFL history is JJ Watt and Reggie White. He has 35 sacks the last 2 seasons and no other Bengals has more than 8.
PAY THE MAN OR GET DRAFT PICKS TO GET MUCH NEEDED HELP FOR YOU OFFENSIVE LINE AND QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR QB!
Let’s look at Cincy’s offensive line ranking in pass block win rate by year:
2021: #30
2022: #30
2023: #27
2024: #32
Not good.
For 2025 the Bengals rank 23rd in spending on their offensive line with $41.9 million. They are paying as much for the whole offensive line as they are for 1 WR.
Make it make sense.
Bottom line, Bengals need to get serious about building their team. DO NOT WASTE YOUR GENERATIONAL QB! Start addressing the oline, find a way to get your defense to be average, and draft better. Or you may as well trade Burrow and continue to be one of the biggest jokes of the league.
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
STRAIGHT BETS
Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
1Q UNDER 9.5
GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
1Q EXACT SCORE:
KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
KC 3 PHI 3 +2500
PARLAYS
+2600
MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
WORTHY TD
SMITH TD
PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.
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