CJ Stroud has made 22 starts in his NFL career. He is 10-12 ATS – 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Stroud is 2-7 ATS in the NFL, worst mark in the NFL since he was drafted last year.
When Stroud faces a defense allowing 21 PPG or less, he’s 1-5 ATS in his last six starts, and the one win was last week vs. Bills – a game a lot of people thought they should have lost.
Since 2000, the Patriots have closed +6 or higher at home seven times and NE is 5-1-1 ATS.
Texans and Dolphins got their first cover of the season last week. Teams after losing at least four games in a row ATS, who break the streak are just 24-37 SU in their next game, including 13-25 SU on the road.
NE is 1-4 ATS on the season.
Since 2000, teams who are below .500 ATS, playing a team with a winning record, and are greater than a 3 point dog are 51-17 ATS. (This also applies to the Panthers this weekend).
MY THOUGHTS:
As great as CJ Stroud is he is experiencing a slight sophmor slump now that NFL teams have a year of tape on him. Also his weapons are missing. Nico Collins was leading the league in rec yards and is OUT. Joe Mixon will be OUT again and Houston's run game doesn't exist.
Patriots defense have been playing respectable, especially at home. With Collins out, I now expect NE's standout CB Christian Gonzalez to lock down Diggs (or whoever their top WR will be for the game). Gonzalez has locked down every WR he has faced this season. So Houston is not going to be able to run the ball and won't have their best WRs to throw too. NE is weak at defending TEs so I wouldn't be surprised if Schultz has a good day.
Houston does have a top 5 pass rush this season and NE has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. But that's where Maye starting helps them since he is a more mobile QB than Brissett. I expect the young QB to make some plays with his legs in this game to keep drives alive.
This game will be ugly and low scoring. I don't see Houston moving the ball down the field easily or getting big chunk plays. In a game like this where you're going to give me a full touchdown I will gladly take the points. Plus the trend on teams below .500 ATS playing a better team and catch more than 3 points historically is too good to pass up.
Would not be surprised if NE pulled off the upset here. I don't think they make this QB switch this week unless they had a game plan for their young QB to have a chance at success.
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The Ravens rush defense has been the best in the NFL this season. Baltimore is allowing 3.05 yds per rush, fewest in the NFL and they are 3rd in rush defense EPA/play and 1st in rush success rate.
Ravens run the ball on offense well, too. The Ravens were the first NFL team in league history to out-rush opponents by 100 or more yards in each of the first four games of the season. They have now done it through five games.
Ravens are a 6.5 point favorite in this game. With how well WSH has played this season and how much they have improved in their power rankings this line should be less than 6.5, which tells me Vegas is not scared and expect the Ravesn to win big here.
Ravens home and having a good run defense will force Jayden Daniels to throw the ball. I'll take the more experienced team and the better team here to get the outright win against a rookie QB who will more than likely be playing from behind.
For those of you that like the betting stats and trends I have those listed below. After that I give you my thoughts on the games plus my personal bets.
BUCS AT FALCONS
CURRENT ODDS: ATL -2.5
TICKETS: 72% ON TB
MONEY: 77% ON TB
STATS/TRENDS:
Baker Mayfield has only played on the road on Thursday Night Football once which was last year in a 24-18 loss to the Bills as a 10-pt underdog (hey he covered)
Overall Baker is 2-1 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and 7-4 ATS in his career on short rest, covering the spread in five straight regular season games on short rest.
As an underdog on short rest, Baker is 5-2 ATS
Baker has lost his last five regular season night starts ATS
Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-12 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game.
Against divisional opponents, Baker is 9-8 ATS on the road.
Todd Bowles coached teams have struggled recently on short rest, going 1-7 SU dating back to the start of the 2018 season.
Can Kirk do it again? In Cousins' career, he has started 43 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 18-24-1 SU, 17-26 ATS. At night, he is 13-20 SU, 14-19 ATS.
Cousins is 8-4 SU (5-7 ATS) in primetime in his last 12 starts, but covering the spread has been issue: 3-7 ATS in his last 10 primetime starts.
In his career, Cousins has made 21 home starts in primetime, he is 10-11 SU, 7-14 ATS – but he is 5-2 SU in his last 7 home primetime starts.
Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 14-27 ATS playing indoor games, including 1-10 ATS in his last 11 games indoors.
Since 2020, Cousins is last of 87 QBs ATS playing indoor games. Cousins is 11-22 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 102 QBs in that span.
Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 59-33-2 SU (64%) After 1p ET: 20-39 SU (34%)
The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through four games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after a SU win.
In Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 30-43-2 ATS (41.1%) after a SU win, including 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) at home, the 2nd-worst mark ATS in the last 20 years of 201 QBs ahead of just Jay Cutler.
Cousins has had to play on short rest off a SU win nine times, he is 3-6 SU/ATS.
In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, favorites and road teams have had the advantage ATS – with favorites 97-79-5 ATS and road teams 99-76-5 ATS last 20 years.
Thursday home teams are just 39-52 ATS since 2019, including 35-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
Bowles is 49-53-5 ATS (48%) in his coaching career. He’s 15-7 ATS with Baker Mayfield and 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs.
Bucs are off a win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 96-125-10 ATS (43%).
MY THOUGHTS/BETS:
This game is too close to call. As you can see from the stats and trends above, you can make a case either way.
One thing that does stand out to me is the Bucs have 77% of the money on them yet the line has moved from ATL -1.5 to ATL -2.5 which tells me Vegas isn't afraid of the Bucs money coming in on them.
I do like an anti correlated parlay of Baker over 1.5 passing TDs but ATL to win and cover. Not saying I love ATL tonight but if they do have a lead I see TB passing the ball and Baker could get to 2 passing touchdowns and the value on that is worth a bet to me.
Kickers have been money this season in the NFL, especially these two. I see these defenses bending but not breaking tonight so we should have a good shot at getting FG opportunities. The odds agree with that as ATL over 1.5 FGs is -169 and TB over 1.5 FGs is -161.
I do think TB is a good teaser leg getting them up to +8
Here are my bets for the game:
SGP: Baker over 1.5 passing TDs / ATL -2.5 at +400
Parlay both kickers over 1.5 FGs made at +158
SGP: Godwin over 62 rec yards / Bucky under 46.5 rush yards / TB over 1.5 FGs at +375
Underdogs of 7+ points start the season 4-0 SU — the first time dogs of 7+ are above .500 SU through three weeks since 1956.
Raiders (+9) over Ravens Patriots (+8) over Bengals Bucs (+7.5) over Lions Commanders (+7.5) over Bengals
For the first time in over 70 years, the biggest underdog in each of the 1st 3 weeks all won outright.
Wk 3: Commanders (+7.5) over CIN Wk 2: Raiders (+9) over BAL Wk 1: Patriots (+8) over CIN
NFL underdogs of 6+ points are now 8-5 SU and 12-1 ATS through three weeks — covering the spread by 9.3 PPG. The best start ATS for "big dogs" in history.
FADE THE PUBLIC HAS WORKED
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) is 17-30-1 ATS this season, with a $100 bettor down $1,453 – the 2nd-worst start for the betting public through two weeks since 2003 (ahead of just 2018).
Public by week: + Week 3: 6-10 ATS + Week 2: 5-10-1 ATS + Week 1: 6-10 ATS
Looking overall at how the public fared ATS in the NFL last year, they went 139-115-9 ATS, with a $100 bettor up $1,063 — the best single regular season for the public in the Bet Labs database dating back to 2003.
We already have five teams 0-2 ATS this year when listed as a public side: SF, LAR, LV, HOU, CIN
UNDEFEATED UNDERDOGS
We have three 3-0 teams in Week 4 all listed as underdogs: Seahawks, Bills, Vikings
3-0 SU teams who are listed as underdogs in their 4th game have struggled lately, going 2-9 SU, 3-7-1 ATS last decade, including 6-19 SU, 9-15-1 ATS last 20 years.
FIRST DOUBLE DIGIT FAVORITE
We've yet to see a double-digit favorite in 2024 — the latest in a season in history with a 10+ pt line. The 49ers in Week 4 vs. Patriots look like the cure.
The Patriots haven’t closed as a double-digit underdog in September since Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning in 2001.
TEAMS ON EXTRA REST THIS WEEK
Eagles, Chargers, Titans and Lions are all about to play games with some extra rest (12+ days) on the horizon, with their opponent not in the same spot.
Since 2016, teams with rest on the horizon are 58% SU and 59% ATS in an over 200-game sample size.
BET BAD TEAMS
Jags had the worst loss of Week 3, losing by 37 pts to the Bills. In the last 20 years, teams that lose by 30+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 89-50-3 ATS (64%).
Teams to lose by 35+ pts, are 76-47-6 ATS (62%) in their next game. When those teams are +4 or higher in their next game, they are 50-19-2 ATS (73%).
COWBOYS AT GIANTS
FORCAST: 73, WINDS 5.7 MPH SSW
TRENDS/STATS:
Giants are off a massive road win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 94-125-10 ATS (42.9%).
Giants got a massive road win last week breaking the longest active ATS losing streak of Daniel Jones.
Dating back to the 2022-23 playoffs, Daniel Jones had lost 9 consecutive games ATS, with his last ATS win coming against the Vikings in the playoffs in January 2023.
Once again, Daniel Jones finds himself in primetime.
Jones is 1-13 SU and 5-9 ATS at night in his career, including 0-6 SU at home at night.
Since 2003, Jones’ 1-13 SU (7%) mark is the lowest win percentage among all quarterbacks with minimum 5 starts.
In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-18-1 SU, 22-16 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 5-21 SU, 11-15 ATS (lost 6 straight ATS).
The 5-21 SU mark after 1p ET is ranked 254th of 258 QBs in ML profitability in the last 20 years and is the worst mark by win pct minimum 20 starts.
Dak does well vs. bad teams. He's 32-14-2 ATS vs. teams under .500 SU and 18-33 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU.
His 32-14-2 ATS mark is 2nd-best of 258 QBs last 20 years, behind only Tom Brady. When he faces a “bad” NFC East opponent, Dak is 14-3 ATS, covering the spread by 9.3 PPG.
Dak Prescott has historically relished the role of a favorite. He is 50-38-2 ATS (57%) as a favorite in his career, including 27-14 ATS as a favorite since 2021.
Dak Prescott is 29-11 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,641) | 37-45-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,024).
Over the past 20 years, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first).
In his career, Dak is 12-2 SU/ATS at night vs. NFC East teams, winning and covering 10 in a row dating back to 2017.
Dak is 10-4 ATS vs. Giants in his career, including 5-1 SU/ATS on the road in New York, not losing since 2016.
The Giants are Dak’s most profitable opponent ATS in his career.
Thursday home teams are just 38-52 ATS since 2019, including 34-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 59% ATS over the last 20 years and are 2-0 ATS in 2024 with the Colts cover in Week 1 vs. Texans and Rams over 49ers in Week 3.
Malik Nabers has 37 targets through three career games. 3rd-most for a rookie, with Puka leading the list last year.
Most Targets, Through 3 Career Games as Rookie 42 – Puka Nacua, 2023 38 – Terry Glenn, 1996 37 – Nabers, 2024
Cowboys are allowing 5.4 yds per rush, most in NFL this year.
Brandon Aubrey has turned into a weapon for Dallas. Aubrey is 15-15 from 50+ yards in his career and 23-23 from 40+ yards. He has 35 total pts this season.
That breaks a tie with Blair Walsh for most consecutive 50+ Yd FG without a miss to begin a kicker’s career in NFL history.
Mike McCarthy is 57% ATS in his career after a SU loss. In September after a loss, he is 9-6-1 ATS, covering the spread by 4 PPG.
McCarthy in Sept-Oct: 71-50-3 ATS (2nd-best last 20 years for any coach behind just Bill Belichick).
MY THOUGHTS/BETS:
I think the Cowboys roll here. We have seen division opponents have each other's number and the Cowboys seem to have the Giants number of late. How do you beat the Cowboy? You run on them. Can the Giants run on these Cowboys? I don't think so. The numbers favor Giants this season compared to the Cowboys in the running game, but it's a small sample size and the Cowboys are not a running team.
Normally I would be ALL OVER kicker props when Aubrey is playing. But I have a weird feeling the Cowboys could just score TDs in this game and he won't get a chance at many FGs. So I may look to bet his fantasy points over or his XPs over instead or just pass all together.
DO NOT TEASE DALLAS DOWN! Unless the ML is -285 or higher. When playing a 6 point teaser each leg is worth -285. Therefore, when looking at the Cowboys ML right now it's -250 which is 35 cents better AND you don't have to worry about another leg. Simply put, if you want to tease the Cowboys it's cheaper to just bet their ML right now.
Other bets I'm on:
Cooks TD +230
Cooks 50+ yards +175
Cowboys -16.5 +332
Cowboys win 1H and Game: -120
Dak 2+ TDs -150, Dak 3+ TDs +270
Elliott under 26.5 rush yards
Cowboys TT over 27.5 +136
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SAINTS AT FALCONS
STATS/TRENDS:
Derek Carr has faced the Falcons three times in his career, winning and covering his only game vs. Atlanta in January of last season at home. He’s 0-2 SU/ATS playing on the road in Atlanta.
Carr is 23-35-2 ATS on the road since 2017, the least profitable road QB ATS in that span (135 of 135 QBs). He’s 26-26-1 ATS at home in that span.
Want to find an area Carr has had success? He’s 32-26-1 ATS vs. divisional opponents with the Saints and Raiders – going .500 ATS or better in seven consecutive seasons now. Since 2018, Carr is top-3 in ATS profitability vs. division opponents.
Dating back to last season, Derek Carr has covered his last two road games. Carr hasn’t covered three straight road games since November of 2020, almost four years.
Carr is 1-0 ATS on the road this season so far – he hasn’t finished a season above .500 ATS on the road since 2016.
Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 14-26 ATS playing indoor games, including 1-9 ATS in his last 10 indoors.
Since 2020, Cousins is last of 87 QBs ATS playing indoor games.
Cousins is 11-21 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 102 QBs in that span.
Some big expectations for the Saints after a historic start.
Saints were the 3rd team since the merger to score 44+ points in 3 straight games joining the…
2024 Saints – Now 2-1 SU 2018 Saints – Started 10-1 SU 2007 Patriots – Started 18-0 SU
Saints were tied for the 3rd-most points for any team in the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era…
1968 Raiders, 95 – Went 12-2 SU 2009 Saints, 93 – Started 13-0 SU 2024 Saints, 91 – Now 2-1 SU 1971 Cowboys, 91 – Went 11-3 SU
Carr has struggled in his career facing a defense allowing 21 PPG or more on the season – he's 35-59-3 ATS in games vs. defenses allowing 21 PPG or more.
Of the 266 QBs in Bet Labs' database over the last 20 years, Carr is the least profitable ATS in this spot.
When he faces a defense allowing fewer than 21 PPG, he’s 34-21 ATS – 5th-most profitable QB. Brady, Rodgers, Brees, Peyton, Carr.
The Saints defense may be an underrated crew so far. They’ve allowed under 20 pts in 7 of their last 8 games dating back to last season. They are 6th in EPA/play this year and 5th in success rate this year, including 3rd in both categories on defense since the start of last season.
Since 2018, the Saints have been more consistently a road team vs. home team.
They are 22-32 ATS at home and 33-19-1 ATS away from home (road/neutral) – the best road team ATS in the NFL and the 2nd-worst home team.
The good news for the Saints is they are 'dogs this week. Derek Carr is 54-46-1 ATS as a 'dog and 22-38-2 ATS as a favorite.
The under has now cashed in 9 consecutive starts by Kirk Cousins dating back to last season.
That is contrast to his career tendencies: The over is 83-68-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the most 5th-most profitable QB to the over in the last 20 years.
Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 58-33-2 SU (64%) After 1p ET: 20-39 SU (34%)
The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through three games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
The total for ATL-NO is below 45. Historically, low totals in indoor games tell you to take the over.
STEELERS AT COLTS
STATS/TRENDS:
Steelers are 1 of 2 teams 3-0 ATS this season, with both of them also undefeated SU (Vikings). This is the 4th time since 1990 Pittsburgh is 3-0 SU/ATS (2024, 2010, 2007, 1992).
Mike Tomlin road unders have been the solid route recently. They are 85-62-1 (58%) to the under in his career, including 55-25-1 (69%) since 2015 – best of any head coach.
Pittsburgh lost to the Colts last year in Indy, 30-13.
The Steelers have historically dominated the Colts though. They are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games vs. Indy, including 22-4 SU in their last 26 and 26-7 SU all-time against the Colts.
The Steelers have just 75 pass attempts this season and are 3-0 SU. That is the fewest pass attempts for a 3-0 SU team since 2018 Dolphins (75 pass att) – before that, the 2010 Steelers with just 60 pass attempts.
Teams to open as underdogs and close as a favorite have historically struggled to cover that number. They are 71-99 ATS since 2019, failing to cover the spread by 1.9 PPG.
Week 4: Steelers, Titans
The Steelers are 23-14-1 ATS since the departure of Ben Roethlisberger at the end of the 2021 season. Pittsburgh is the 2nd-most profitable team ATS in the NFL in this span behind only the Lions.
Here are the 4 QBs Pittsburgh has used: Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph, Mitch Trubisky & Justin Fields.
Steelers under Mike Tomlin without Ben Roethlisberger is 43-27-3 ATS, covering by 1.7 PPG, 77% in 6-point teasers.
The Colts have held the ball (TOP) for an average of 21.36 minutes across their first three games — the lowest mark in the NFL.
Their total offensive TOP is 64:48 in three games – the only team below 65 minutes combined in their first three games since the 1999 Browns
Through three weeks, Richardson is completing just 49.3% of his passes. The only QB under 50% with at least 5 pass attempts.
Richardson is the 23rd QB since 2000 to be under 50% passing thru 3 games with 50+ attempts. He’s the 3rd with 6+ INT: Kerry Collins and Ryan Leaf.
Richardson faces a stingy Steelers defense this week. He is 2-0 SU/ATS in his career, facing defenses allowing below 20 PPG, beating the Bears this past Sunday and the Titans last season.
The issue for Richardson might be experience – QBs within their first 10 career starts, are 14-42 SU (25%) vs. Steelers under Mike Tomlin.
Richardson still leads the NFL with 12.6 aDOT through three games. He had an aDOT of 8 last season. His 12.6 aDOT is highest for any QB through two weeks since 2018.
Highest aDOT through Week 3, Since 2018 12.6, 2024 Anthony Richardson 12.1 2021 Lamar Jackson 11.8, 2018 Deshaun Watson 11.6 2022 Jameis Winston 11.6 2019 Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) 11.4 2019 Josh Rosen (MIA) 11.3 2019 Jameis Winston 11.2 2018 Patrick Mahomes
JAGS AT TEXANS
STATS/TRENDS:
In Lawrence’s career, he is 4-8 ATS vs. Texans and Titans (2-4 ATS vs. both), and 5-1 ATS against the Colts.
This will be Lawrence’s 6th career game started on short rest in the NFL. He is 3-2 SU/ATS in those previous 5 games, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG.
For the first time since 2012, the Texans will open the season being favored in their first four games.
CJ Stroud has made 20 starts in his NFL career and he is 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 3-8 ATS as a favorite – for a total of 9-11 ATS.
As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Stroud is 2-6 ATS in the NFL. In Stroud’s four home starts above a FG favorite, his defense has allowed 49 total pts vs. opponents (12.3 PPG).
In six career divisional games, the Texans have scored at least 20 pts in each under Stroud, going 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS.
Jaguars had the worst loss of Week 3, losing by 37 pts to the Cardinals. In the last 20 years, teams to lose by 30+ pts and are underdogs of 4 pts or more in their next game are 89-50-3 ATS (64%).
Lawrence has lost eight consecutive starts straight up dating back to November of last season, including four straight starts SU as a favorite and five straight starts SU as an underdog.
Worst QBs on the moneyline since December 1st last season…
Sam Howell: 0-5 SU, -$500 Bryce Young: 1-7 SU, -$575 Trevor Lawrence: 0-8 SU, -$800
Lawrence is 8-19 SU and 12-15 ATS on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $1,019 on the road in his career. Of the 96 QBs who have made a start since 2021, Lawrence is the least profitable QB on the road.
Lawrence is 24-31 ATS in his career. He's 19-19 ATS with Doug Pederson compared to 5-12 ATS between Darrell Bevell and Urban Meyer in his rookie season.
In 5 career games on short rest, the Jaguars have played well under Lawrence. They are 3-2 SU, winning twice on the road, scoring 20+ in 4 of 5 games, including winning the only game they didn’t get to 20 pts
VIKINGS AT PACKERS
STATS/TRENDS:
Packers and Vikings are 4-4 ATS vs. each other since 2020, 8-8 ATS since 2016 and 11-11 ATS since 2013.
LaFleur is 19-11 ATS vs. divisional opponents as Packers head coach, including 10-5 ATS at home. He’s 7th of 150 coaches last 20 years in that category. When the spread is tight, 4 pts or less, vs. NFC North, GB is 10-7 ATS.
The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this year. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best % for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a down turn on his favorite numbers, but he’s actually 23-14 ATS as a home favorite with the Packers – 4th-best of any head coach in the last 20 years.
In the first three weeks of the regular season, LaFleur is 15-3 ATS with the Packers, best win pct among all head coaches since 1990 (min. 10 games).
He’s 40-35 ATS in game 4 on.
Vikings defense has been stingy under Brian Flores to start the season. They are 3rd in EPA/play, 1st in total QB pressures, 1st in sacks, allowing 2 pass TD with 5 INT.
They are the 1st team since the 2001 Bucs to have 5+ sacks in each of first 3 games of season.
An absolute turn around for Sam Darnold. Here is how he entered the 2024 season: 21-35 SU as a starter, 16-26 SU as a 'dog, 5-9 SU as a favorite, 9-19 SU on the road and 12-16 SU at home. All under .500 SU.
In 2024, he’s 3-0 SU/ATS, winning both as a favorite and an underdog. Darnold has started 3-0 SU/ATS one other time, back in 2021 with the Panthers. He finished 1-5 ATS down the stretch that year.
Darnold has played seven career games on a 2+ game win streak, his teams are 3-5 SU/ATS in those games.
BENGALS AT PANTHERS
STATS/TRENDS:
Bengals would be the 8th team in the last decade to be a road favorite in their 4th game of the year after starting 0-3. Those teams are 8-0 SU and 5-1-2 ATS. This could include the Titans this week, too.
8 teams last decade been road fav in game 4 or later with 0 wins == 8-0 SU. Fade or follow with Cin/CAR
Andy Dalton faces his former team in the Bengals this week. He spent nine seasons in Cincinnati where he went 70-60-6 ATS, most profitable of his 5 career teams and Dalton is the 2nd-most profitable Bengal ATS last 20 years behind just Burrow.
In Week 3, the Bengals played on extended rest with the MNF game. Now they are on short rest in Week 4 vs. Panthers.
Burrow is 7-5-1 ATS on extended rest during the season, not including Week 1s. On short rest, Burrow is 5-3 ATS, but was 0-2 SU/ATS on short rest in 2023.
In Burrow’s career, he is 22-11 ATS on the road or a neutral site. When he’s closed as a FG favorite or higher on the road, he is 7-3 ATS in his career.
Burrow has faced the Panthers once in his career – he put up 42 pts and covered the 7-pt spread at home in 2022.
The upgrade from Bryce Young to Andy Dalton is very simple.
Dalton has almost 75 pass yds more than Bryce Young in one fewer start this season. Including a full 4 more yards per attempt.
Difference between Dalton and Bryce in EPA/play is basically Brock Purdy to Jaren Hall last season.
In just two starts with the Panthers, Andy Dalton has more 300+ yard games than Bryce Young had games with 250+ passing yards (18 starts).
In Week 3, the Panthers outscored the other 32 teams in the NFL.
Panthers led by 26 pts vs. Raiders – their biggest lead in any game since 2021 and 2nd-biggest since 2018.
The Panthers didn't snap the ball while leading in the fourth quarter of a single game last season – the first team to do so in the Wild Card era (since 1990). Dating back to the end of the 2022 regular season, Carolina didn’t snap the ball in the fourth quarter with a lead since Week 17 last year – until last week vs. Raiders. Streak snapped.
Carolina hadn’t led by 10+ pts at any point during the game since Week 6 of last season before last week and they had actually lost their last three games outright when they’ve had a 10+ pt lead before beating the Raiders.
If you just look over the last 3 seasons since 2022, Andy Dalton has had 547 total plays at QB, while Bryce Young is at 732 plays. Of the 39 QBs with 500+ plays in that span, Bryce is 39th in EPA/play, Dalton is 19th, Bryce is 39th in success rate, Dalton is 13th, Bryce is 36th in CPOE, Dalton is 26th.
Last year, the Panthers averaged just 4.11 yards per offensive play. That was not only the worst mark in the NFL, but the worst mark for any team since the Bengals back in 2008. Not only that, but their 4.11 Y/OP was the third-lowest for any time since 1990 with at least 1,000 offensive plays run that season.
To open 2024, Carolina has had 3.5 yards per play in Weeks 1 and 2 and are at 3.49 for the season.
Last week vs. Raiders, the Panthers were up to 6.2 YPP.
In his career, Dalton is 84-77-6 ATS (52%), but Dalton has been .500 ATS or worse each of the last six seasons and since 2021, he’s 6-9 ATS as an underdog.
The Panthers have been an underdog in 23 straight games (32 of last 32) and were last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, with every other NFL team has had at least three covers as favorites since Sept. 2021 and they were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
Joe Burrow is 8-11 SU vs. AFC North and 26-16-1 SU vs. all other divisions. He had lost three consecutive games SU vs. teams outside the AFC North for the first time in his NFL career – that streak is now up to four.
Burrow bounceback? When can we expect it? Burow is now down to 15-7-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 10-3-1 ATS in Sept/Oct.
In the first two games of the regular season, Zac Taylor is 1-11 SU as a head coach, while Burrow is 1-9 SU in those games.
Week 3 was supposed to be the time to turn it around.
Burrow is 33-18-1 SU in game 3 on now, with Zac Taylor even over .500 SU game 3 on still at 41-38-1 SU.
In Burrow’s career, he had been 6-0-1 ATS after any losing streak (2+ games) entering last week vs. Commanders – that streak is now broken with Cincinnati 0-3 this year.
In Burrow’s career, he's 38-23-1 (62%) against the second-half spread. He's 4-9 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
Burrow has faced a team off an ATS cover in their previous game 25 times in his career; he's 19-5-1 ATS, including 1-1 ATS in 2024 after covering vs. Chiefs and losing to the Commanders.
RAMS AT BEARS
STATS/TRENDS:
Rams are coming off a massive comeback vs. 49ers last week. Their 14-point comeback was their largest since Week 2, 2012 vs Washington, breaking a 59-game losing streak when down 14 – In that Week 2 game in 2012, Sean McVay was Washington’s TE coach and Kyle Shanahan was their offensive coordinator.
Rams became the 4th team this season to overcome a 14-pt deficit – Bills, Bears and Dolphins in Week 1.
Teams coming off a 14+ pt comeback in their previous game, are 51-68 SU (43%) and 49-70-1 ATS (41.2%), including 70-49-1 (59%) to the under in their next game since 2016.
When that team came back from 14+ down, they are 24-49 SU, 30-44 ATS when playing on the road in their next game over the last decade.
Caleb Williams leads the NFL in pass attempts 20+ yds downfield with 19. He also only has 3 completions of that distance. His 15.8% comp. % 20+ yds downfield is lowest of 16 QBs with at least 9 attempts this year.
Most INT passes 20+ yds downfield Caleb – 3 Richardson – 3 Levis – 3
Caleb has 28 total “bad throws” this season – passes off-target – the most in the NFL by 6 over Dak Prescott and Bo Nix.
McVay has enjoyed his games against divisional opponents, going 28-18-1 ATS in his career. Compared to 39-40-3 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents.
Rams are coming off a big win against the 49ers last week. In 2024, teams are 1-1 SU after facing the 49ers, but last three seasons, they are 11-25 SU, least profitable mark of any team in the NFL.
The Rams have allowed a whopping 9.8 yards per attempt on defense this year, highest mark in the NFL – Jared Goff in Week 1, Kyler Murray in Week 2 and Brock Purdy in Week 3 have averaged almost 10 yards per attempt vs. Rams through three weeks.
In Stafford’s career, he is now 4-7 ATS vs. 49ers, including 2-6 SU in his last 8 starts vs. 49ers.
The week after facing San Francisco, Stafford has lost four straight starts SU, he’s 2-5 SU with the Rams and is 2-3-2 ATS in that spot.
McVay and Stafford have very much played their role as a duo with the Rams, they are 24-8 SU when listed as favorites and only 5-12 SU as underdogs, picking up the win vs. 49ers last week.
McVay and Stafford have been a decent bet after a divisional game as a duo. They are 11-6-2 ATS after a divisional game and 10-16 ATS after a non-divisional game.
The Rams OL is an issue. Stafford has been sacked 10 times in their first three games, his most through Week 3 in his career.
Rams are last in pass block according to PFF and Stafford has been pressured on 29 dropbacks, 2nd-most in NFL ahead of just Deshaun Watson (45).
BRONCOS AT JETS
STATS/TRENDS:
The Jets are coming off a Thursday Night Football game last week vs. Patriots.
In Aaron Rodgers’ career, he is 31-20-2 ATS (61%) on extended rest, the 5th-most profitable ATS mark of 225 QBs last 20 years. He’s 16-9-2 ATS at home on extended rest, too.
Jets 2-1 for the first time since 2015.
The Jets are only the 3rd team in the last 80 years to play its first 3 games of a season within an 11-day span. Previous teams: 2018 Jets, 2013 Eagles. 2024 Jets only one to post a winning record.
2018 Jets. Finished 4-12 SU, 5-11 ATS. Lost 4th game 31-12 on road. 2013 Eagles. Finished 10-7 SU, 8-9 ATS. Lost 4th game 52-20 on road.
Since 2021, when Rodgers has played on extended rest off of a SU win, he is 3-0 SU/ATS in his next game, winning by double-digits in each.
This will be the 5th time Aaron Rodgers will face Sean Payton. Payton is 4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS vs. Rodgers, with the home team winning and covering 4 of the 5 meetings.
Rodgers will face a rookie QB in Bo Nix this week. Rodgers is 15-6 SU in his career vs. rookie QBs, winning 7 consecutive games SU vs. rookies. Josh Rosen in 2018 is the last rookie QB to beat Rodgers SU (Rodgers is 11-1 SU since 2017).
Sauce Garner played better coverage in Week 3 vs. 2. He allowed 2 rec on 3 targets for only 9 yds vs. Patriots. Sauce got roasted a bit two weeks ago vs. Titans for 6 targets, 5 receptions, 97 yards, 1 TD via PFF. It was only the second time he's allowed five catches in a game in his career.
Aaron Rodgers is now technically 3-1 ATS as starting QB of the Jets — $100 bettor is up $171. That makes Aaron the 2nd-most profitable Jets QB ATS in the last 20 years (of 22 total QBs). Kellen Clemens is #1 at 6-3 ATS, +$293.
There have been six different Jets coaches in the last 20 years and none have been profitable ATS with New York. Saleh is 23-30-1 ATS with the Jets, the least profitable of the group.
Even after 281 yards on Thursday vs. Patriots, Rodgers has still been short of the milestone in almost three years.
December 12th, 2021 — Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears). Since that 300-yard game: he's 14-12 SU, 12-14 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
Nathaniel Hackett is in his second year as OC in New York and his 11th as a coach or OC. His teams are 95-78-1 to the under, going .500 or better to the under in all five teams he’s been a part of.
The Jets schedule won’t do them any favors. In the first 11 weeks, the Jets will play six night games and a game in London without a bye week.
No other team plays more than four night games in the first 11 weeks. In fact, in the last 20 years, the Jets’ six night games within the first 11 weeks is the most of any team.
Six night games: Wk1 at SF, MNF (L, 32-19, +3.5) Wk3 vs. NE, TNF (W, 24-3, -6.5) Wk6 vs. BUF, MNF Wk7 at PIT, SNF Wk9 vs. HOU. TNF Wk11 vs. IND, SNF
The Broncos are already 2-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 79-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site. In his first season with Denver last year, he went 2-5-1 ATS on the road, his 2nd-worst season ATS of his career (2013).
Payton is 8-9 ATS in Week 1, 4-13 ATS in Week 2 – for a combined 12-22 ATS – 2nd-worst of 139 coaches last 20 years, ahead of just John Fox.
In his teams 3rd (12-5 ATS) and 4th (11-4-1 ATS) games, he is a combined 23-9-1 ATS, best of any coach in the NFL of 134 coaches.
When Payton’s teams are 'dogs in September or October, they are 30-13-1 ATS.
This is the 1st time Payton’s team will start the season as a dog in four straight games since his first year in New Orleans in 2006.
EAGLES AT BUCS
STATS/TRENDS:
Rematch time. The Bucs beat the Eagles 32-9 in the playoffs last year ending Philly’s miserable end to the regular season.
Under Nick Sirianni, the Eagles are 18-9 ATS when looking for revenge after a loss to a team in their previous matchup, including 13-4 ATS over the last three seasons since 2022.
The Eagles start their first road trip of the season this week against the Bucs.
Under Sirianni, the Eagles are just 2-5 ATS when playing on a road trip, including 0-5 ATS since the start of 2022, failing to cover the spread by 10.5 PPG.
Of the 39 coaches since 2022 to coach a game on a road trip, only Sirianni, Frank Reich and Kliff Kingsbury don’t have a cover and Reich is 0-2 ATS and Kliff is just 0-1 ATS.
In his career, Jalen Hurts is 7-14-1 ATS as a favorite away from home. In the last 20 years, he's the 5th-least profitable QB as a favorite away from home.
Hurts is 1-4-1 ATS in his last six starts in this spot.
Jalen Hurts' Career Home: 17-10-1 ATS (4th-best of 102 QBs since 2020). Road/Neutral: 12-18-1 ATS (2nd-worst of 107 QBs since 2020).
Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-11 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game. A $100 bettor would be up $816 taking the under in this spot, 2nd-best of any current starting QB behind just Justin Herbert.
Tom Brady will be on the call for Eagles-Bucs after having Cowboys-Browns in Week 1, Saints-Cowboys in Week 2 and Ravens-Cowboys in Week 3. Just so we can keep track, road teams 3-0 SU/ATS, underdogs 2-1 SU/ATS and overs 3-0 with Brady in the booth.
COMMANDOS AT CARDINALS
STATS/TRENDS:
Washington's franchise have had its struggles traveling west as underdogs. They are 6-15 SU last 20 years going to MST or PST, including 2-5 SU since 2020 losing by almost a TD per game.
East coast teams traveling to MST or PST on short rest are 42-45 SU over the last 20 years – when they are listed as underdogs, they are 16-29 SU, as favorites they are 26-16 SU.
This will most likely be the closest game to close with a total of 50+.
Totals of 50+ are 4-0 to the under this season, going under the total by 13.6 PPG.
Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 16-4 to the under and last three years they are 34-14 to the under (71%).
The Cardinals have allowed Josh Allen, Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff to complete a combined 75.3% of passes this year – that is the highest mark for any team this season and highest through three games for Arizona in franchise history by over 5%.
The Cardinals have scored 82 total pts through three games, the 4th-most of any team in the NFL.
It’s hard to figure out the Cardinals this year. They are 1-2 SU and have scored 80+ pts with a +18 point differential – they are just the 6th team to do that since the merger:
Cardinals recently have started hot. They are .500 ATS or better in the first four games of the regular season in seven straight seasons, going 10-5 ATS since 2021 in that spot.
Murray has also had success when traveling east in his career with the Cardinals. Playing in EST, he is 12-3 ATS, including 18-6 ATS playing in either EST or CST — covering the spread by 5.9 PPG — and only 19-25-2 ATS playing in either MST or PST.
Kyler Murray has had success in his career when listed as an underdog. He's 26-16-2 ATS as a dog and has been .500 ATS or better as an underdog in each of his six seasons in the NFL. Since he entered the NFL, he's the 2nd-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog, behind only Jared Goff.
As a favorite, Kyler is 10-15 ATS, not winning consecutive starts as a favorite since 2021.
The underdog role has not done Washington well recently. But last week that all changed.
Last two seasons, the Commanders are 2-6 SU playing later than the 1P ET window, losing those games by 13 PPG.
Hopefully for Washington, Dan Quinn and Jayden Daniels can break the franchise's bad stretch as underdogs.
Washington had lost 8 consecutive games straight up as dogs, including going 3-11 SU in the spot last season. Since 2019, they have ranked 28th in the NFL in moneyline profitability as dogs.
They are 1-1 SU/ATS as dogs in 2024.
Jayden Daniels has 38 carries in his 1st three career starts at QB. Daniels leads all QBs in rush attempts, rush TDs and he’s tied in red zone rush attempts this season.
Here are the most rushing attempts in 1st three starts as a rookie QB: 2018 Lamar Jackson, 54 2024 Jayden Daniels, 38 2020 Jalen Hurts, 38
Can Jayden Daniels do it again? Nine QBs since the merger have won a road night game within their first three career starts as a rookie (they are 9-26 SU). Only two have had to play on the road again in their teams next game, and they both lost outright – Deshaun Watson and Joe Webb.
2018 Sam Darnold lost next game at home as favorite 2016 Carson Wentz won next game at home as a dog 2011 Joe Webb lost next game as a road dog, but didn't cover 2004 Big Ben won next game as home fav and covered 2022 Brock Purdy won next game as home fav and covered 2019 Devlin Hodges didn’t start next game 1987 Ed Rubbert/Tony Robinson didn’t start next game 2017 Deshaun Watson lost next game as a road dog, but covered
PATRIOTS AT NINERS
STATS/TRENDS:
The 49ers had a tough loss last week.
It was Kyle Shanahan's 5th loss in regular season or playoffs when leading by 10+ points in 4th quarter. Since Shanahan was hired by 49ers in 2017, only John Harbaugh has blown more double-digit fourth-quarter leads (6).
Since 2020, the 49ers have 12 losses when leading by 10+ pts at any point, the most in the NFL.
If it gets there, the Patriots aren’t double-digit underdogs very often.
It happened twice in December last season vs. Bills and Chiefs. It happened before that in 2020 also against the Chiefs.
Before that? It hadn’t happened since the Super Bowl in 2001-02 against the Rams. The Patriots haven’t closed as a double-digit underdog in September since Tom Brady vs. Peyton Manning in 2001.
Double-digit favorites coming off a SU loss see their games go under the total 63% of the time over the last decade, 63-37-1 to the under.
The 49ers are the 5th team since 2009 to be a double-digit favorite after blowing a 14+ pt lead in their last game and first since January, 2022. Of the 11 teams in this spot since 2001, they are 11-0 SU and 7-3-1 ATS.
The 49ers are next…
The Ravens lost their opener and were big favorites against the Raiders and lost outright. The Bengals started 0-2 and then were big favorites against the Commanders and lost outright.
Favorites of 7 or more who are under .500 SU on the season are now 85-17 SU since 2016, winning by 10.3 PPG (including 39-8 SU last four seasons).
Favorites of more than 7 pts who are under .500 SU on the season are 32-4 SU since 2020 and 68-12 SU since 2016.
Outright losses by favorites of more than 7 pts who are under .500 SU on the season since 2020… 2024: 0-2 SU 2013: 2-1 SU 2022: 8-0 SU 2021: 14-0 SU 2020: 8-1 SU
It’s not often a team off a loss with a win pct below 50% is a double-digit favorite – the first time since October 2022. Since 2010, those teams are 14-0 SU, 10-4 ATS.
This is slated to be the first game with a double-digit spread this season. The latest into a season we’ve seen a double-digit favorite in NFL history.
We saw no double-digit favorites in Weeks 1 or 2 in consecutive seasons for the first time since the merger in 1970. In the 55 seasons since the merger, there has been a double-digit favorite within the first two weeks in 49 of those seasons (ones that didn’t: 2024, 2023, 2020, 2015, 1984 and 1980).
The Patriots haven’t opened the season as underdogs in their first four games since 1991 – when they were dogs in their first 13 games of the season, finishing 6-10 SU, 7-9 ATS, more importantly 11-5 to the under in their 16 games.
Because it's important we keep an updated tally … Patriots since Brady left: 30-41 SU, 30-38-3 ATS Patriots since Belichick left: 1-2 SU and 1-1-1 ATS
Since Tom Brady left for Tampa Bay, the Patriots have been listed as underdogs a total of 38 times in five seasons (14-22-2 ATS). Between 2004 and 2019, Brady in New England was listed as an underdog a total of 30 times in 16 seasons (19-10-1 ATS).
Jacoby Brissett is 32-19 1H ATS in his career. Of 260 QBs in the last 20 years, he's the 4th-most profitable QB 1H ATS behind just Joe Flacco, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes.
This season, Brissett is just 1-2 1H ATS. He’s never finished a season below .500 1H ATS.
Patriots now travel across the country to face 49ers in San Francisco.
NE has played 10 games since 2003 in PST without Tom Brady, they are 4-6 ATS. Brady was 8-1 ATS in that spot.
In franchise history, Patriots have played six games in SF. They’ve won their last two in 2008 and 2016 and lost the previous four by over 10 PPG.
Top WR in standard fantasy scoring through three weeks this season
Jauan Jennings: 45.6
Malik Nabers: 45.5
Justin Jefferson: 45.3
The 49ers are now 2-4 SU in games where McCaffrey gets fewer than 10 carries and his teams (CAR, SF) are 19-30 SU when he either doesn’t play or has fewer than 10 carries.
In games Christian McCaffrey has started for the 49ers, they have gone 26-6 SU and 19-13 ATS.
Trent Williams had a question mark on his name entering Week 1 and ended up playing.
SF has lost five consecutive games SU where Williams either hasn’t played or played fewer than 50% of the offensive snaps.
SF pts scored: 20, 19, 17, 17, 14
The 49ers have played three games without Deebo Samuel since the start of last season and they are 0-4 SU, scoring exactly 17 pts in three games and 24 pts last week vs. Rams.
Overall, SF has played 18 games without Deebo in his career and they are 8-10 SU.
BROWNS AT RAIDERS
STATS/TRENDS:
The Browns have traveled to MST or PST a total of 26 times since 2003. They are 5-21 SU in those games, including 0-7 SU since 2019, losing by 12.9 PPG. Since the start of 2007, Cleveland is 2-18 SU in this spot.
Only 2 Browns QBs have won in this spot since 2007 – Baker Mayfield and Brandon Weeden, with Weeden winning in Oakland in 2012.
Browns haven’t closed as a favorite in this spot since 2019.
The Raiders run game has been a struggle this season. The Raiders 153 yards rushing are fewest through 3 games since 2019 Dolphins had 135. It's the fewest in Raiders history. Previous low was 185 last season.
Deshaun Watson is 34-35-2 ATS in his career and 14-21-2 ATS as a favorite and 20-14 ATS as an underdog.
Watson enters this contest winning his last three road starts outright – his 1st 3+ game road winning streak since 2018.
How bad has Watson been recently?
59 QBs have had 200+ plays since the start of 2022, Watson is 52nd in EPA/play, 52nd in success rate, 48th in CPOE (comp. % over expected).
His EPA/play mark is surrounded by Davis Mills and Will Levis. His success rate is around Zach Wilson.
Watson’s last 300 yd game came with the Texans in January 2021.
The Browns have odds of +4000 to win the Super Bowl. In the Wild Card era (since 1990), high expectations have not led to playoff results. Browns have had odds of 40-1 or shorter entering the regular season 11 times in the WC era and they've never won a playoff game that same season with a combined record of 73-109 SU.
Browns are 8-16 ATS vs. AFC North under head coach Kevin Stefanski. Of 148 head coaches over the last 20 years to coach in at least one divisional game, Stefanski is the second-least profitable ahead of just Joe Philbin. Stefanski is 26-21-1 ATS vs. non-AFC North opponents.
The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year, by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following year with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved their ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through two weeks, the Browns are 14th in EPA/play on defense at -0.026.
The Raiders have seen some success from draft pick Brock Bowers this season. He has 18 receptions, 21 targets through three games, both at least tied for league lead for TEs.
TEs with 21+ targets, 18+ rec through 3 career games: Brock Bowers, Sam LaPorta
How have the Raiders performed since moving to Las Vegas?
Raiders at home in Vegas: 17-18 SU, 19-15-1 ATS On road/neutral: 16-20 SU/ATS
Antonio Pierce is 8-3-1 ATS with the Raiders – the best ATS win pct for any coach for the Raiders in the Wild Card era since 1990. That 8-3-1 ATS mark is the best record of any coach in the NFL since he got the job in Week 9 last year
CHIEFS AT CHARGERS
STATS/TRENDS:
Justin Fields in Week 1. Malik Willis in Week 2. Skylar Thompson in Week 3. Backup QBs are 2-1 SU/ATS so far this season.
Here is how backup QBs have performed in their first start as a backup for that team that season, while also being listed as an underdog: 10-17 SU (37%), 13-13-1 ATS since start of last season 21-50 SU (30%), 38-31-2 ATS (55%) since 2021 – past three seasons.
Jim Harbaugh suffered his first loss since facing TCU back in 2022 with Michigan. Overall in his NFL career, he is 24-9 SU as a coach early season in September and October games.
NFL QBs under Jim Harbaugh Alex Smith: 20-6-1 SU Colin Kaepernick: 29-16 SU Justin Herbert: 2-1 SU
Home divisional underdogs in the first four games of the regular season are 59% ATS over the last 20 years and are 2-0 ATS in 2024 with the Colts cover in Week 1 vs. Texans and Rams over 49ers in Week 3.
Chiefs are 9-0 in their last 9 games including playoffs, but have won by a combined total of only 54 points. It's the smallest combined margin of victory by any team in NFL history during a 9-0 stretch.
It’s worth discussing Rashee Rice. His 24 receptions through 3 games leads the NFL and his 288 yards is second.
His 24 rec is the most through 3 games in Chiefs history.
Patrick Mahomes is 8-2 SU, 4-5-1 ATS in his career vs. Chargers, including 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS vs. Justin Herbert.
With a win Sunday, Mahomes would have six wins vs. Herbert, 2nd-most vs. any other QB. Most is vs. Derek Carr, going 8-1 SU.
On the road against divisional opponents, Mahomes has been almost unbeatable.
He is 16-1 SU, 10-7 ATS – his only SU loss came to the Broncos last season.
When Mahomes is on a road trip – 2nd game or later on the road – he is 13-2 SU, 8-7 ATS – but 5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS vs. AFC West teams.
Only four times in his career has Mahomes gone EST to MST or PST in his next game, and he is 4-0 SU on the road, beating AFC West opponents in all four games.
Mahomes has faced 14 teams allowing 17 PPG or fewer in his career. He is 12-2 SU, with his only two losses coming to Josh Allen at home in KC in the calendar year of 2024.
To cherry pick a bit, what if I told you Jim Harbaugh was 13-5 SU in the NFL vs. Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers combined. Not bad. Patrick Mahomes up next.
Mahomes is 30-5 SU vs. AFC West opponents in his career. The one caveat? He is 1-2 SU in his last three divisional games entering 2024.
Mahomes' last 13 starts…
Against 1H spread: 3-10 Against 2H spread: 11-2 (covered 8 straight)
Mahomes’ 3-10 1H ATS mark is the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Bryce Young (0-9 1H ATS).
Mahomes’ average depth of target has been a large story for the Chiefs…
Patrick Mahomes is 18-4 SU and 13-9 ATS in September. That 18-4 SU mark is the best of any month for Mahomes in terms of ML profitability.
Mahomes is 38-43-2 ATS (47%) career as a favorite of more than a FG. In all other spots, he is 25-8-1 ATS (76%).
As a favorite of 7 pts or more, Mahomes is 22-27-2 ATS in his career, on the road that falls to just 5-10-1 ATS and overall as a favorite of 7+ pts, he is 10-12-1 ATS vs. AFC West teams.
Mahomes by time of kickoff … PM 1 p.m. ET: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. ET slate: 48-34-1 ATS
This week is for history.
Eight teams in Super Bowl history have gone for three-peat, they are combined 13 games below .500 ATS in that third season and none of the eight teams were 3-1 ATS or better in their teams' first four games that year.
The 2024 Chiefs are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS and are a big road favorite.
In games that Taylor Swift attends, the Chiefs are now 12-3 SU and 9-5-1 ATS after their Week 1 win against the Ravens, but ATS loss in Week 2 vs. Bengals.
With KC 18-6 SU and 15-8-1 ATS since the start of last year – they are just 6-3 SU and ATS without Swift.
BILLS AT RAVENS
STATS/TRENDS:
Sean McDermott has faced Lamar Jackson three times, most recently back in 2022. Lamar is just 1-2 SU, but 2-1 ATS.
In Lamar Jackson’s 86 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 43 times – he is 36-7 SU (85.4%), 23-20 ATS in those games. When he faces that coach again (2nd time or later), he is 24-19 SU and 23-20 ATS.
McDermott will now get his 4th look at Lamar – Coaches in 3rd game or later vs. Lamar are still just 9-13 SU/ATS vs. Jackson, with 3 of those 9 wins coming from Andy Reid.
Let’s compare both QBs playing at night in primetime.
Lamar: 16-7 SU, 14-9 ATS – 8-2 SU at night in home games – 6-1 SU on SNF (won 5 straight) Josh: 19-10 SU, 14-15 ATS – 9-6 SU at night in road games (10-6 road/neutral) – 6-4 SU on SNF
Justin Tucker is 2-for-5 on FG’s 40+ yds in range this season.
Dating back to last season, Tucker is just 1-for-7 in his last 7 50+ yard field goals.
The Ravens rush defense has been the best in the NFL this season and now go against Josh Allen and the Bills run game.
Baltimore is allowing 2.8 yds per rush, fewest in the NFL and they are 2nd in rush defense EPA/play.
On extra rest during the season in his career, Josh Allen is just 9-13-1 ATS, including 2-5 ATS when that game is on the road.
Josh Allen is 17-9 ATS in his first four games of the regular season – he’s just 37-38-5 ATS in game 5 or later of a season.
That 17-9 ATS mark puts him 6th-best over the last 20 years.
Allen has 71 wins in his career. 51 of those 71 wins have been by seven points or more.
The biggest advantage in Buffalo? That might just be the Bills second half. Under Allen, the Bills are 62-41-3 against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the 2nd-most profitable QB on the second-half spread. In 2024, he’s 3-0 2H ATS.
Bills are rolling. 30+ pts scored in their first three games and they are now listed as underdogs on the road against the Ravens.
Usually about one team a year starts hot – with 30+ in their first three games. Bills this year, 49ers last year, Cardinals in 2021.
29 teams have done it prior to 2024 dating back to 1990 and they are 19-10 SU, 15-11-3 ATS. Of those 29 teams, only 4 closed as underdogs:
2021 Cardinals, +4 at Rams – Won, 37-20 2014 Eagles, +5 at 49ers – Lost, 21-26 2009 Ravens, +2 at Patriots – Lost, 21-27 1994 Patriots, +3.5 at Lions – Won, 23-17
Jackson is 23-7 ATS as a favorite of three points or less or an underdog. In all other spots, he's 23-33 ATS career.
Since 2020, Ravens have 8 home losses after leading by 10+ pts at any point in the game – three more than any other team.
Their 11 losses leading by 10+ pts since 2020 home or away is the 2nd-most behind just the 49ers.
Lamar Jackson won the MVP award last season and began the season 0-2 SU.
He was the 4th NFL MVP since 1970 to start 0-2 SU the following season.
2024 Ravens started 0-2 SU (1-2 SU now) 2002 Rams started 0-5 (missed playoffs) 1984 Washington started 0-2, then won 5 straight (won division, lost in div. playoffs) 1981 Browns started 0-2, then won 2 straight (missed playoffs)
Lamar finally got a 1st half cover last week vs. Cowboys, breaking a 4-game 1H ATS losing streak, which was tied for the longest of his career.
Overall, Jackson is 52-32-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 260 QBs.
Todd Monken is in his 2nd year as offensive coordinator in Baltimore — his fifth offensive coordinator stint in NFL — and his teams' ATS results haven’t been great.
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