BEST BET

PATRIOTS +7 (good to +6)

Also am on NE ML +250

STATS/TRENDS/FACTS:

• Nico Collins and Joe Mixon out for Houston
• Drake Maye making his first NFL career start
• CJ Stroud has made 22 starts in his NFL career. He is 10-12 ATS – 6-3 ATS as an underdog and 4-9 ATS as a favorite.
• As a favorite of 3 pts or more, Stroud is 2-7 ATS in the NFL, worst mark in the NFL since he was drafted last year.
• When Stroud faces a defense allowing 21 PPG or less, he’s 1-5 ATS in his last six starts, and the one win was last week vs. Bills – a game a lot of people thought they should have lost.
• Since 2000, the Patriots have closed +6 or higher at home seven times and NE is 5-1-1 ATS.
• Texans and Dolphins got their first cover of the season last week. Teams after losing at least four games in a row ATS, who break the streak are just 24-37 SU in their next game, including 13-25 SU on the road.
• NE is 1-4 ATS on the season.
  • Since 2000, teams who are below .500 ATS, playing a team with a winning record, and are greater than a 3 point dog are 51-17 ATS. (This also applies to the Panthers this weekend).

MY THOUGHTS:

• As great as CJ Stroud is he is experiencing a slight sophmor slump now that NFL teams have a year of tape on him. Also his weapons are missing. Nico Collins was leading the league in rec yards and is OUT. Joe Mixon will be OUT again and Houston's run game doesn't exist.
• Patriots defense have been playing respectable, especially at home. With Collins out, I now expect NE's standout CB Christian Gonzalez to lock down Diggs (or whoever their top WR will be for the game). Gonzalez has locked down every WR he has faced this season. So Houston is not going to be able to run the ball and won't have their best WRs to throw too. NE is weak at defending TEs so I wouldn't be surprised if Schultz has a good day.
• Houston does have a top 5 pass rush this season and NE has one of the worst offensive lines in the league. But that's where Maye starting helps them since he is a more mobile QB than Brissett. I expect the young QB to make some plays with his legs in this game to keep drives alive. 
• This game will be ugly and low scoring. I don't see Houston moving the ball down the field easily or getting big chunk plays. In a game like this where you're going to give me a full touchdown I will gladly take the points. Plus the trend on teams below .500 ATS playing a better team and catch more than 3 points historically is too good to pass up.
• Would not be surprised if NE pulled off the upset here. I don't think they make this QB switch this week unless they had a game plan for their young QB to have a chance at success. 

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MY PICK: RAVENS

• Lamar is 21-2 SU against NFC teams in his career

• The Ravens rush defense has been the best in the NFL this season. Baltimore is allowing 3.05 yds per rush, fewest in the NFL and they are 3rd in rush defense EPA/play and 1st in rush success rate.

• Ravens run the ball on offense well, too. The Ravens were the first NFL team in league history to out-rush opponents by 100 or more yards in each of the first four games of the season. They have now done it through five games.
• Ravens are a 6.5 point favorite in this game. With how well WSH has played this season and how much they have improved in their power rankings this line should be less than 6.5, which tells me Vegas is not scared and expect the Ravesn to win big here.
• Ravens home and having a good run defense will force Jayden Daniels to throw the ball. I'll take the more experienced team and the better team here to get the outright win against a rookie QB who will more than likely be playing from behind.

TNF Stats, Trends, and Best Bets

For those of you that like the betting stats and trends I have those listed below. After that I give you my thoughts on the games plus my personal bets.

BUCS AT FALCONS

CURRENT ODDS: ATL -2.5

TICKETS: 72% ON TB

MONEY: 77% ON TB

STATS/TRENDS:

• Baker Mayfield has only played on the road on Thursday Night Football once which was last year in a 24-18 loss to the Bills as a 10-pt underdog (hey he covered)
  • Overall Baker is 2-1 SU/ATS on Thursday Night Football and 7-4 ATS in his career on short rest, covering the spread in five straight regular season games on short rest.
  • As an underdog on short rest, Baker is 5-2 ATS
• Baker has lost his last five regular season night starts ATS
• Over the last three seasons, the under is 21-12 when Baker Mayfield is one of the starting QBs in the game.
• Against divisional opponents, Baker is 9-8 ATS on the road.
• Todd Bowles coached teams have struggled recently on short rest, going 1-7 SU dating back to the start of the 2018 season.
• Can Kirk do it again? In Cousins' career, he has started 43 games in primetime – which are high profile games, night, playoffs, overseas, Saturday, etc. – and is 18-24-1 SU, 17-26 ATS. At night, he is 13-20 SU, 14-19 ATS.
  • Cousins is 8-4 SU (5-7 ATS) in primetime in his last 12 starts, but covering the spread has been issue: 3-7 ATS in his last 10 primetime starts.
  • In his career, Cousins has made 21 home starts in primetime, he is 10-11 SU, 7-14 ATS – but he is 5-2 SU in his last 7 home primetime starts.
• Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 14-27 ATS playing indoor games, including 1-10 ATS in his last 11 games indoors.
  • Since 2020, Cousins is last of 87 QBs ATS playing indoor games. Cousins is 11-22 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 102 QBs in that span.
  • Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
    • 1p ET or earlier: 59-33-2 SU (64%)
      After 1p ET: 20-39 SU (34%)
• The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks back in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
  • Through four games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks.
• Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 6-18-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of the Seahawks and Saints.
  • The Falcons are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games after a SU win.
• In Kirk Cousins’ career, he is 30-43-2 ATS (41.1%) after a SU win, including 12-21-1 ATS (36.4%) at home, the 2nd-worst mark ATS in the last 20 years of 201 QBs ahead of just Jay Cutler.
  • Cousins has had to play on short rest off a SU win nine times, he is 3-6 SU/ATS.
• In divisional games where both teams are on short rest, favorites and road teams have had the advantage ATS – with favorites 97-79-5 ATS and road teams 99-76-5 ATS last 20 years.
• Thursday home teams are just 39-52 ATS since 2019, including 35-46 ATS in night Thursday games.
• Bowles is 49-53-5 ATS (48%) in his coaching career. He’s 15-7 ATS with Baker Mayfield and 34-46-5 ATS with all other QBs.
• Bucs are off a win as underdogs last week. Since 2003, teams coming off a SU win as dogs, who are on short rest the next week are just 96-125-10 ATS (43%).

MY THOUGHTS/BETS:

• This game is too close to call. As you can see from the stats and trends above, you can make a case either way.
• One thing that does stand out to me is the Bucs have 77% of the money on them yet the line has moved from ATL -1.5 to ATL -2.5 which tells me Vegas isn't afraid of the Bucs money coming in on them.
• I do like an anti correlated parlay of Baker over 1.5 passing TDs but ATL to win and cover. Not saying I love ATL tonight but if they do have a lead I see TB passing the ball and Baker could get to 2 passing touchdowns and the value on that is worth a bet to me.
• Kickers have been money this season in the NFL, especially these two. I see these defenses bending but not breaking tonight so we should have a good shot at getting FG opportunities. The odds agree with that as ATL over 1.5 FGs is -169 and TB over 1.5 FGs is -161.
• I do think TB is a good teaser leg getting them up to +8
• Here are my bets for the game:
  • SGP: Baker over 1.5 passing TDs / ATL -2.5 at +400
  • Parlay both kickers over 1.5 FGs made at +158
  • SGP: Godwin over 62 rec yards / Bucky under 46.5 rush yards / TB over 1.5 FGs at +375
  • Both teams score over 19.5 points: YES at +145