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NFL WEEK 15
COMMANDERS AT SAINTS
- Odds: WSH -7.5, O/U 43.5
- According to Action Network, 70% of bets and 80% of money on WSH -7.5
- Derek Carr is OUT. Jake Haener will get the start.
- When Derek Carr plays the Saints, per PFF, have an EPA of +7 which ranks 8th in the NFL. When he doesn't play the Saints drop 28 points in EPA which is amongst the worst in the league.
- Saints with a backup QB this year are 0-3 SU/ATS, being outscored 110-45.
- Road favorites with a winning record, coming off a bye are 55-35 (61%) ATS since 2004.
- Under interm coach Darren Rizzi the Saints are 4-0 1H ATS
- Jayden Daniels vs teams blow .500 SU is 7-1 SU/ATS
PICKS
- WSH -7.5
- Saints TT under 17.5 -135
- Tease WSH down to -1.5 or better
- Jayden Daniels OVER 19.5 competions -107
- Kamara under 65.5 rush yards -114
DOLPHINS AT TEXANS
- Odds: Texans -2.5 (-125), O/U 46.5
- According to Action Network, 70% of bets and 69% of the money on MIA +2.5
- Since 2021, Dolphins are 5-18 SU vs. teams above .500 SU and 23-10 SU vs. teams below .500 SU on the season.
- Tua has played in 5 dome games in his career. He is 4-1 SU and Dolphins average 25.6 ppg
- Texans are 11-2 1H ATS
- CJ Stroud in games where the total is 45+ he is 10-3 to the under, including 7-1 when it closes 47+
- There's no hiding the fact that the Texans have played poor the last 4-5 games. It was expected for them to comeback down to earth after an overperformance last season. I think we are about to see them start playing their best ball of the season to finish out these last 4 games. I believe they are talented, healthy, and well coached which makes me believe Houston is a buy on team going forward. This is just a gut feeling.
PICKS
- HOU -2.5 -125
- HOU 1H -0.5
- Mixon over 19.5 carries
- Stroud under 10.5 rush yards
- Tua over 0.5 INTs -130
JETS AT JAGUARS
- Odds: Jets -3.5 (-102), O/U 40.5
- According to Action Network, 59% of the bets and 85% of the money is on NYJ -3.5
- Jags as an underdog this season are 7-2 ATS
- Mac Jones is 6-17 ATS in his career when an underdog
- In Mac Jones' 3 starts this season the Jags have scored a combined 23 points.
- When two teams play in game 14 or later, both with a win pct of 25% or less, the favorite is 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS since 1990.
- Since week 4, Aaron Rodgers is 28th in EPA/play, 29th in success rate, 30th in CPOE, and 26th in aDOT.
- The first half on the road has been an issue for Rodgers. He is 4-10 1H on the moneyline on the road since the start of 2022. At home during that span, he is 7-5-2 1H SU.
PICKS
- Under 40.5
- Mac Jones over 0.5 INTs -130
BENGALS AT TITANS
- Odds: CIN -5, O/U 46
- According to Action Network, 73% of the bets and 90% of the money is on CIN -5.
- Titans are 2-11 ATS this season.
- Burrow on short rest and a favorite of -3 or greater is 5-1 ATS.
- Burrow is 15-7 ATS against teams below .500 SU.
- Burrow is 11-4 ATS in the second game of back to back road games
PICKS
- CIN -5
- CIN ML -240 (I have some in a couple parlays)
- TEN TT under 21.5 -150
- Will Levis over 1.5 pass TDs +152
RAVENS AT GIANTS
- Odds: BAL -16, O/U 42.5
- According to Action Network, 56% of the bets and 51% of the money is on NYG +16.
- Double-digit favorites started the season 5-0 ATS through Week 11. Since then, they have 0-4 ATS.
- Lamar Jackson is 23-2 SU against NFC opponents
- As a favorite of 6 points or more vs. the NFC, Lamar is just 3-9-1 ATS and as a favorite of 7 or more, he is 2-9-1 ATS.
- Coming off a full bye week, Lamar is 6-2 SU, but just 2-6 ATS, including 1-5 ATS in the regular season.
- Road favorites coming off a bye week are 77-54-4 ATS (59%) since 2004.
- Lamar is 27-21 ATS on the road in his career
- Over the last two seasons, the Giants have faced a team off a bye week four times and they have scored a total of 34 points.
- Reports are the Giants had an outdoor practice Thursday to get prepared for the weather on Sunday. They went 0 for 17 on pass plays.
- Tommy DeVito will be getting the start for the Giants on Sunday.
PICKS
- BAL -15 (I bet it earlier in the week but would still lay the 16)
- BAL TT over 28.5 -115
- NYG TT under 14.5 -170
- BAL 1H -9.5
- Justice Hill over 13.5 rush yards (bet earlier in the week). Theory is Ravens will be up big late and they will want to rest Henry.
- Lamar under 45.5 rush yards -115 (he only runs in competative games).
CHIEFS AT BROWNS
- Odds: Chiefs -4, O/U 43
- According to Action Network, 51% of the bets and 59% of the money is on KC -4.
- During week 13 or later, teams who have a win percentage of 86%+ SU, are on the road, and did not win their last game by 20+ points, are just 7-56 ATS (Chiefs).
- Chiefs this season only have 10 takeaways, which is tied for 3rd fewest in the league.
- Chiefs won and didn’t cover again last week. They are 12-1 SU and 4-8-1 ATS this season and are currently on a 7-game ATS losing streak. Since 1990, only two teams have had a 75%+ win pct while on a 7+ game ATS losing streak: the 2024 Chiefs and 2020 Chiefs.
- Mahomes is now 24-40-2 ATS (-$1,788) as a favorite of 3.5 points or more since 2020, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL by a large margin.
In Jameis Winston’s last nine starts, his teams are 2-7 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.3 PPG.
- Weather is expected to be 39 degrees and wet.
PICKS
- CLE +4
- CLE ML +195
- Under 43
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