NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND

Here's some stats for the games this weekend and my bets I've made.

WILDCARD WEEKEND TREND

• In the Wildcard era, teams that have a Strength of Schedule (SOS) that is 10 slots higher than their opponent are 32-12 ATS. This applies to HOU and GB this weekend.
• FADE TEAM OFF L vs TEAM OFF W
  • Matches: PIT, GB, BUF
  • Record since 2003: 26-42-1
• BIG FAV, NO TURNOVERS LAST 2 GAMES, FADE
  • Matches: BAL, BUF
  • Record: 49-75
• BET ON WILDCARD TEAMS WITH EXPERIENCE VS THOSE WITHOUT
  • Matches: HOU, BUF TB, LAR
  • 30-15-1
• BET OVER IN PLAYOFFS GAMES PLAYED INDOORS
  • Matches: LAC/HOU, MIN/LAR
  • Record since 2003: 35-18

CHARGERS AT TEXANS

• Value on the Texans catching points at home
  • The average fan and sports bettor will remember the Texans as the team that only scored 2 points against the Ravens on Christmas.
  • Strength of Schedule Trend: The Texans SOS was 14 while the Chargers was 29 this season.
• Chargers run a split safety defense at the 2nd highest rate in the league. Stroud against this defense this season has 8 TDs and 9 INTs.
• Road favorites of 3 or more in the 1st round of the playoffs has happened 6 times since 2012, the under is 0-6, covering by 10 ppg.
• Texans this season were 6-1-1 to the under in games played against winning teams
• Stroud was the second most sacked QB this season only behind Caleb Williams. Both QBs hung onto the ball longer than other QBs.
• Herbert in his career is 14-9 ATS as a road favorite, including 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in that spot.
• C.J. Stroud has made 34 career starts in the NFL. He’s 9-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 12-3 in a 6-pt teaser.
• The one issue for Stroud could be the Chargers defense. Stroud has started four games vs. a defense allowing under 18 PPG, where L.A. sits as the best PPG defense in the NFL, and Houston has averaged just 14 PPG in those matchups.
• Texans are 13-4 against the first half spread this season – DeMeco Ryans is 25-11 1H ATS, including 25-9 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB.
• Under DeMeco Ryans, Texans have played 5 games on short rest, they are 1-4 SU/ATS, going 0-4 SU/ATS this season in that spot. That is the most SU losses without a win for head coach this year.
• On the other side, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers are 3-0 SU/ATS this year on short rest.

• Chargers will be playing their third consecutive game on the road this week going from New England to Las Vegas to now Houston. Since 2003, teams who are on the third game or later of any road trip are 45-71 SU (39%). These teams are 5-12 SU over the last three seasons. When this game is played in the playoffs, that team is 11-27 SU (29%), .500 SU or worse in each of the last 19 seasons.

BETS

• Under 41.5
• Tease the under to 48
• Mixon TD -125, Mixon 2+ TDs +475
• Mixon over 17.5 rush attempts -125
• Mixon over 20.5 rec yards -110
• Dobbins TD +120, Dobbins 2+ TDs +800
• Stroud under 233.5 pass yards -115
• Stroud under 13.5 rush yards -115

STEELERS AT RAVENS

• Ravens Pro Bowl WR Zay Flowers has been ruled OUT for this game.
• Steelers are on a 4 game losing streak heading into the playoffs.
• Total is set at 43.5 and there's massive trends to the over.
  • When division opponents meet in the playoffs and the home team (Ravens) won the previous matchup, 12-5 to the over going over by 7 ppg.
  • First round of the playoffs and the teams have played in the last 6 weeks, the total in this game has gone up from the prior game: 11-1 to the over by 15 ppg scoring average 64 points.
• With Flowers being out I predict Baltimore will run more 2 TE sets. Steelers defense against 2 TE sets ranks #24 in EPA this season. (not good)
• Since week 15 the Steelers have the 3rd lowest pressure rate in the league. This is when TJ Watt got hurt. Since Watt has come back, he has had 0 sacks and played some of the worst games of his career. Clearly Watt is not 100% and this defense doesn't play the same with him not at his best.
• As an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS in franchise history. Under Tomlin, they are 6-1 ATS as a ‘dog of more than 3 pts vs. Ravens.
• Under Mike Tomlin, Steelers are just 3-14 SU and 7-9-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 pts or more. As a dog of 8 pts or more, Tomlin is just 1-8 SU with the Steelers, his only win coming in 2022 vs. Bucs.
• Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 5-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh.
• Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
• Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs, losing 17-3 on the road in Buffalo and 28-12 at home to the Titans.
• Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 29-11-3 ATS (73%). The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS since 2015. Overall, the underdog is 25-9-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, but just 1-2 ATS in the postseason.
• This season, the Ravens ended with 132 penalties as a team, T-2nd most in the NFL.
• Historically, it has been difficult for Baltimore to hold a lead against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, the Ravens are 2-7 SU against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game.
• Steelers are 6-11 1H ATS this year and 11-24 1H ATS over the last two seasons, the worst mark for any team in the NFL. Over the last 4 seasons, Pittsburgh is 25-45 1H ATS, also worst mark across the league.
• BETS
  
  • OVER 43.5
  • BAL 1H -6
  • TOTAL FGS UNDER 3.5 -135
  • Henry 1st TD +295, 1 TD -210, 2+ TDs +260
  • Likely TD +275, 2+ TDs +2500
  • Harris TD +205
  • Pickens TD +205
  • Lamar under 217.5 pass yards -115
  • Wilson over 207.5 pass yards -110
  • Likely 40+ rec yards +145, 50+ yards +250, 60+ yards +400
  • Likely 3+ catches -143, 4+ +129, 5+ +224

BRONCOS AT BILLS

• Broncos have the 4th highest blitz rate in the league
• Josh Allen is really good against the blitz with 16 TDs and 1 INT this season.
• Josh Allen in the playoffs for his career gains 6.8 yards per rush and averages 56 yards per game
• Josh Allen's longest rush prop is set at 13.5 yards. He has gone over this in 7 out of 10 playoff games he has played in. BUT he usually only does this against GOOD teams meaning close games and not when the Bills have a big lead.
• In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 12-5 ATS this year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco – with Flacco the only QB to cover 12+ games with Bo.
• Overall rookie QBs are 5-12 SU in the playoffs since 2010, but recently they haven’t performed terribly, going 2-2 SU with C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy in recent years.

• One thing Bo has done really well this year, which will be helpful if Denver is able to take a lead, is keep control of the ball. Nix has 14 TD passes and just 1 INT when having the lead this year, the most TD passes with 1 INT or less in the NFL in that spot. When trailing this year, Bo has 10 pass TDs but 6 INT and sees his QB rating drop by 20+ points.

• Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road or a neutral site, he is 83-61-3 ATS (58%), including 33-17-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL. On the road, when his opponent is averaging 24+ PPG, Payton is 29-14 ATS in his career.

• In his coaching career, Payton is 7-10 ATS in the playoffs. He is 3-9 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
• The Bills defense has been an issue lately. Since Week 9, they are 30th in success rate, their pass defense is 30th in EPA per dropback and dead last, 32nd in dropback success rate.
• At home as a favorite of over a TD (-7.5 or more), Josh Allen is 13-9-2 ATS in his career. Allen is 2-6-1 ATS away from home as that big of a favorite.
• As a favorite of 7.5 or more at home, Allen is 23-1 SU in his career – with his only loss coming to the Broncos and Russell Wilson last season.

BETS

PACKERS AT EAGLES

• Concerns over Jordan Love and his ability to grip the football in last week's injury. Packers did not allow media to see him throw in practice.
• Concers over Jalen Hurts and his progress through the concussion protocol. He is expected to play but how will that affect him for this game? AJ Brown also sat out practice on Thursday but is expected to play.
• Rematch from their week 1 matchup in Brazil where the Eagles won 34-29.
• Overall, Jalen Hurts has faced Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers.
• Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts in the three games.
• LaFleur is 27-12 SU and 25-14 ATS when facing an opponent after losing to them in his previous matchup.

• When he’s listed as a road underdog in a revenge spot, he is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS, covering the spread in 7 consecutive games.

• As an underdog in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, LaFleur is 2-0 ATS covering on the road against the 49ers and Cowboys.
• Against teams with the same SU record or worse, the Packers are 10-1 SU this season after losing to the Bears last week. Against teams with a better record than GB, they are 1-4 SU, just beating the Texans back in October.
• Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 34-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 16-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 17-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
• In Hurts’ career, he is 26-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 14-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
• We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
• Packers have lost two consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this matchup. Teams to do that entering a playoff game are 12-6-1 ATS since 2000.

BETS

COMMANDERS AT BUCS

• Another rematch from week 1 where the Bucs, at home, won 37-20. To note, this was Jayden Daniels first career start along with Dan Quinn's first game as head coach of the Commanders.
• The Commanders have not won a playoff game in 19 years, the 3rd-longest active drought behind the Dolphins and Raiders. The last time they did? They were on the road, in the opening round, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
• Rookies have lost seven straight road playoff games, with the last winner coming in 2012-13 from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Overall, rookie QBs are 5-14 SU on the road in the playoffs since 1990.
• Daniels has started three night games this season. His one loss came against the Eagles, where Washington was playing on short rest. On normal rest or longer, he went 2-0 SU/ATS in night games, with Washington’s offense scoring 68 total pts.
• Since the Bucs win in the playoffs last year against the Eagles, the Bucs have played four night games this season and they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.
• Overall, Mayfield is 1-9 SU in his last ten night games, both regular season and playoffs, with his line win coming in the postseason against that Eagles team. Baker’s 1-9 SU mark is 2nd-worst of 79 QBs ahead of just Daniel Jones, who is 1-11 SU.

• Bucs had to overcome a 10-pt deficit against the Saints last week to make the playoffs. Teams in playoffs on normal rest or shorter, coming off a double-digit comeback in their previous game are 7-11 SU since 2006, including 4-10 SU when they are off 60+ plays on offense in their previous game.

• Washington’s 6-11 ATS mark in the 4Q is tied for the 3rd-worst record in the NFL.
• The over is 12-5 when Mayfield has started the game this season, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just Lamar Jackson at 13-4. This year, games with Jayden Daniels as a QB are also 11-6 to the over.

• This over/under is the biggest of Wild Card weekend, with it sitting around 50. Since 2003, playoff totals of 50+ are 28-25-2 to the under, but if you split them up by indoor and outdoor games, they are 11-7 to the over indoors and 21-14-2 to the under outdoors.

• The Buccaneers have played well in the first quarter this year. Their 11 scores on 1st drives are tied for most in the NFL, and their 8 TDs are also tied for most.
• That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 25, T-lowest). Bucs are 10-6-1 against 1st quarter spread this year.

BETS

VIKINGS AT RAMS

• Same exact scenario from earlier in the season. Vikings lost to the Lions then had to go down to LA to play the Rams where LA won 30-20.
• This game has been moved to AZ due to the fires in LA. A neutral site game.
• In their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford threw 4 TD and 1 INT, all of which came without being blitzed, which the Vikings do most of any team in the NFL. On that day, Stafford had 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 sacks in a clean pocket, something Minnesota has to avoid this week.
• This year, Stafford has 8 TD and 2 INT when being blitzed, 12 TDs and 6 INT without the blitz and his pocket pressure is even wider, 2 TD and 6 INT while being pressured and 18 TD and just 2 INT in a clean pocket.

• The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they finished the year 14-3. They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total and then they joined the 2004 Chargers and Steelers as the only teams to go 7.5 games above their win total since realignment in 2002.

• Minnesota is the 5th team to eclipse their win total by 6.5+ games since 2002, none of the four teams won the Super Bowl, one made it there (2015 Panthers), two lost in the Wild Card round.
• Getting the loss out of the way. Over the last 20 years, four teams have had a 7+ game SU win streak snapped right before a playoff game – as the Vikings did on SNF against the Lions last week. Those four teams went 4-0 SU after their streak got snapped.
• One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 26-9 SU (74%) in one-score games under O’Connell. In 2024, the Vikings are 9-1 SU in those close games.
• The Lions beat the Vikings last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.8 PPG and 18-31 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
• Since 2003, teams to average 25+ PPG on the season, coming off a 14-pt game or less the week before the Wild Card round are just 2-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 PPG with the Eagles and Dolphins in this spot last year, who scored 16 combined pts between the two teams.
• In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 3-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
• Sean McVay is 21-19-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 8-4 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-13-2 ATS.

• This season, Stafford has already won four games outright as an underdog, his most since 2016 and 2nd-most of his career. Stafford has won two straight games outright as an underdog entering this matchup, the only other time in his career he’s won three straight games outright as an underdog in the same season is in 2022, with the 3rd consecutive game being against the Bucs in the playoffs. Between 2022 and 2023, Stafford was 1-10 SU as an underdog

BETS

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