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KALSHI SPORTS BETS

Below I'm going to explain why if you are a regular sports bettor and you DON'T have a Kalshi account you're missing out on HUGE opportunities to grow your bankroll. Plus I'll give you some bets that I have made today for this weekend.

YOU DO NOT HAVE TO AGREE WITH MY PICKS OR EVEN BET THEM. THIS IS EXAMPLES OF REAL BETS I HAVE MADE TO SHOW THE EXTRA VALUE BY USING KALSHI. TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK (but these picks are going to be profitable).

KALSHI ADVANTAGE

Two main reasons I love having a Kalshi account:

1) BETTER ODDS.

-You always hear in sports betting the importance of having "multiple outs', meaning having accounts at multiple sportsbooks to be able to shop the best number. Not many people are willing (or able to) to take the time to set up new accounts and fund them at different sports books all to save 10 cents here or 10 cents there on a bet.

-But on Kalshi you can find MASSIVE edges compared to a traditional sportsbook. My theory on this is these sportsbooks have been doing this for years and tend to trend together. Every now and then you'll find one willing to take a bigger risk on a side, but mainly it's all the same. I don't think the people setting the lines AND the audience that is betting on Kalshi is as familiar with the regular sports betting market as your traditional sportsbook is and that's why we get an advantage on our bets.

2) ABILITY TO SELLOUT OF A POSITION

-Most sportsbooks don't offer the "cash out" option on bets. And if they do you usually get taxed on it heavily for what your true odds should be. On Kalshi you can determine what your target cash out number is and if the market gets there you can sell all or some of your position to guarantee a profit.

-Some may point out the fees you have to pay to deposit, withdraw, and execute a trade (bet). This is true, BUT even calculating the fees you pay the odds MAY STILL BE better than the odds you get at your book PLUS with the option to sell out at any point those fees (to me) are worth it. Imagine you pick a team to win the NCCAM basketball tournament and they reach the Final 4. Your original bet is now valued 10X what you paid. You can choose to cash out and not have to worry about the results. Yet at a sportsbook you have to sweat it out and hope you have an opportunity to hedge out to gain your profit.

SEC MEN'S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT

BET: TEXAS A&M TO WIN

SPORTSBOOK ODDS: +1400

KALSHI ODDS: 4 CENTS (+2500) [THIS IS WHAT I BET]

As you can see the value on Kalshi is massive compared to my sportsbook. Texas A&M is a good, not great, team but is coming into the tournament off 2 wins against number 1 ranked Auburn and LSU. They get a bye in the first round and will play the winner of Texas vs Vanderbilt and will be favored in that matchup.

If they win that first match I expect to see a slight bump in their odds to win the tournament. But what I love about this is their next opponent which will be Tennessee who will be on rest after having a bye for the first two rounds of the tournament. A&M who have been playing better ball heading into this tournament will have played a game and not be rusty for the Vols. These teams split their matchups this year 1-1. Tennessee should be favored slightly in that matchup, but I would have it a coin flip game. They win that and I'm sitting with a nice bet heading into the semis and a great spot to sell some profit. No guarantees but I calculate these odds to be better value than a mechanical parlay of the two games.

THE PLAYERS CHAMPIONSHIP

OUTRIGHT WINNER

SCHEFFLER 14 CENTS (+714 VS +550 AT MY BOOK)

MATSUYAMA 3 CENTS (+3300 VS +3000 AT MY BOOK)

JASON DAY 2 CENTS (+5000 VS +5500 AT MY BOOK)

The reason I am willing to take worse odds with Day than my book is the ability to cash out if Day has a great early round 1 or 2. He plays this course well and I like him to place top 10 and expect him to be in the mix from the start.

There's just great value on Scheffler here and it hedges against my other two bets if he comes out and dominates like he has known to do. Afterall, he has won this tournament 2 years in a row. Does make me nervous that last week he did not putt well and only hit his irons average. But even with being a -5 on putting he still finished 11th which is impressive. Expect a bounce back here from him.

Matsuyama always plays this course well and find himself in the top 10 and top 5 regularly for this tournament. The hope is he can be at the top after round 2 and I can cash in a profit.

Love Kalshi for golf bets because you can get better odds for the most part on these golfers and if you one of them starts out HOT your bet could easily triple or more after day 1 and you can cash out that profit.

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Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 10

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:19:50
Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 9

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:18:06
Stugotz's Personal Record Book Chapter 8

Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".

You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595

00:10:02
MLB Daily Betting Report

Here's where the money is at in MLB today!

Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html

MLB Daily Betting Report
MLB Daily Betting Report
MLB Daily Betting Report
MLB Daily Betting Report

Mathematical Considerations For Teasers

Following on from last week's post on parlays on Sportspicks I'd like to explore the mathematical underpinnings of teasers. This is prompted partially by Robert Barnes' allusion to teasers showing an edge in college football last season and Will's analysis on teasers for NFL. I'll be posting this on Sportspicks too so that hopefully we'll all find a good edge on teasers this year in college football and NFL.

A teaser is an adjusted parlay that combines spreads and totals from either American football or basketball leagues. Whatever line you take, you adjust it by the same number in the same direction of action. Since spreads and totals are generally quoted on average a little bit below even money, parlays and teasers are quoted at odds that lengthen exponentially with each added leg. The primary difference is that teasers lengthen slower such that a two leg teaser has a similar price to its original constituent spreads and subsequent legs will diverge from...

Live Chat
September 07, 2025
NFL Sunday Week 1 Live Chat

I'll be in and out of here all day dropping bets! Let's see yours!

September 06, 2025
Added Teaser Week 1 NFL

Since 2 out of 3 legs have hit on one of my 3 leg teaser parlay, I'm going to hedge and try to middle.

Currently I have PIT +3.5 left to cash my teaser. I will tease NYJ up and tie it to an afternoon game.

NYJ +8.5 / HOU +9 -115

If PIT wins by 8 or less OR loses by 3 or less I'll cash the first leg and be alive for the hedge teaser with HOU +9

September 18, 2025
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NFL WEEK 3 BETTING CARD

NFL WEEK 3 CARD

 

SIDES AND ML

 

TEN +3.5 +100

TEN ML +174

CAR +5.5

CAR ML +203

LV +3.5

LV ML +148

GB -7.5

MIN -3

LAR +3 +104

LAR ML +165

HOU ML +110

DEN +3 -120

NO +7.5

 

TEASERS

 

POOL

MIA +17.5

MIA/BUF O 44.5

CAR +11.5

LV +9.5

GB -1.5

HOU +7

DEN +9

NO +13.5

LAR +9

NYJ +12.5

 

MY TEASER PICKS

 

MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155

LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150

CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150

LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160

Read full Article
August 19, 2025
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The Bengals Are WASTING Joe Burrow's Career!
It's silly to overreact to one game, especially a preseason game where teams are not at full potential. In the sports betting world you never want to react to a small sample size and instead focus on a trend or team that gives you the most relevant data points possible. But when the small sample size correlates with the long historical trend then IT'S TIME TO BE WORRIED!
 
That's EXACTLY what is happening with the Bengals. Last night's game was a pointless preseason game where the Bengals decided to play their starters for the first quarter. It was more of the same of what we saw last season. Burrow had to be a magician to make plays happen, the offensive line could not protect, and their defense couldn't stop a high school team from running on them.
 
But maybe Burrow is getting exactly what he deserves. Afterall, he took the big payday (which he deserves) and he advocated for the team to pay BOTH his WRs Chase and Higgins instead of spending more money on the offensive line or defense. Here's the current contract for just 3 players on the Bengals:
 
  • Burrow: 5 years, $275 million, $219 million guaranteed
  • Chase: 4 years, $161 million, $112 million guaranteed
  • Higgins: 4 years, $115 million, $60 million guaranteed
 
That's $124 million per year for 3 players. The salary cap for the 25 season is $279 million and the Bengals are spending roughly 44% of their cap space on 3 players. Now we all know the cap goes up every year but still you will be spending over a third of your cap on 3 players for the next 4 years.
 
THE BENGALS NEED TO OPEN THE CHECKBOOK AND START SPENDING MONEY ON OFFENSIVE LINE AND THEIR DEFENSE OR TRADE AWAY BURROW!
 
The last part of that is not going to happen but should be seriously considered! They are wasting his career and Burrow may go down in the history books as the next Dan Mario. Really good but never had enough around him to win the big game that matters.
 
What can the Bengals do now? First, they can take care of this Trey Hendrickson situation. Either pay the man or trade him away for draft capital. If this season ends up being a disaster like last season (as I predict) and they are able to secure extra draft pick(s), they will be set up to get one of the top linemen in next year's draft.
 
Or just pay the man. Normally I would say 1 player does not make a difference on the defense overall, but here's the numbers of when Hendrickson is on the field and when he's not:
 
#32 pressure rate
#32 completion rate alowed
#32 success rate alowed
#32 passer rating alowed
 
But when Hendrickson plays, the Bengals pass defense ranks top 12 in each of those categories.
 
Hendrickson also had back to back 17.5 sack seasons. Only other players to do this in NFL history is JJ Watt and Reggie White. He has 35 sacks the last 2 seasons and no other Bengals has more than 8.
 
PAY THE MAN OR GET DRAFT PICKS TO GET MUCH NEEDED HELP FOR YOU OFFENSIVE LINE AND QUARTER OF A BILLION DOLLAR QB!
 
Let’s look at Cincy’s offensive line ranking in pass block win rate by year:
2021: #30
2022: #30
2023: #27
2024: #32
 
Not good.
 
For 2025 the Bengals rank 23rd in spending on their offensive line with $41.9 million. They are paying as much for the whole offensive line as they are for 1 WR.
 
Make it make sense.
 
Bottom line, Bengals need to get serious about building their team. DO NOT WASTE YOUR GENERATIONAL QB! Start addressing the oline, find a way to get your defense to be average, and draft better. Or you may as well trade Burrow and continue to be one of the biggest jokes of the league.
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February 07, 2025
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Super Bowl Betting Card

SUPER BOWL BETTING CARD

Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!

I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them. 

My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.

WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK

STRAIGHT BETS

  • Kalshi: BIG bet on Eagles to win at 48%. Honestly, don't care who wins, what I'm doing here is betting the Eagles as the dog and planning to sell out of the position if they take a lead in this game. Then, depending how the game is going, I will buy back in on the Chiefs. May just go back and forth with this strategy expecting it to be a close game. That's what's nice about Kalshi is you can sell out of your position anytime you want.
  • 1Q TT: KC under 3.5 -110 AND PHI under 3.5
    • This is not a parlay, bet them seperate. Over the last 10 SBs, 5 times both teams have gone under, 4 times it has split 1-1, and only once have both teams gone over. With two teams who play good defense and have the ability to sustain long drives, plus with the history of at least 1 team starting slow in the SB, I think this is a great bet and at worst we go 1-1 and only lose a little on the vig.
  • 1Q UNDER 9.5
  • GAME TOTAL OVER 48.5 -112
  • EAGLES ALT LINE -7.5 +330
  • CHIEFS ALT LINE -7.5 +283
  • 1Q EXACT SCORE:
    • KC 3 PHI 0 +1400
    • KC 3 PHI 3 +2500

PARLAYS

  • +2600
    • MAHOMES OVER 24.5 COMPLETIONS
    • BARKLEY UNDER 114.5 RUSH YARDS
    • WORTHY TD
    • SMITH TD
  • PHI 1H / KC GAME +550
  • MAHOMES UNDER 30.5 RUSH YARDS / OVER 6.5 ATTEMPTS +425
    • If you like KC to win the game then you will love this bet. Remember, kneel downs count as rush attempts and Mahomes known to take 3-5 yard kneel downs in the SB so even if he gets over 30.5 yards we are still in play for this one.

PROPS

  • COIN TOSS: HEADS -101
  • EAGLES ROUGHING THE PASSER PENALTY: YES +170
  • KICK TO DONK OFF UPRIGHT: YES +550

LONGSHOTS

  • BUTKER MVP +10000
  • TRIPLE CROWN: MAHOMES / WORTHY / HURTS +5000
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