NFL Week 9 Best Bet (lookahead line)
SF -3.5 @ NYG
Available at DK:
https://sportsbook.draftkings.com/event/sf-49ers-%40-ny-giants/32225715
This is a VALUE pick as I would be shocked if this line is -3.5 by the time we get to week 9. I expect it to be SF -5 or greater. Which would give us a chance to play the other side for a middle, but at the least we have great closing line value.
Let me explain why below:
SCHEDULE AND PUBLIC PERCEPTION
As you probably have heard already, the 49ers have the easiest schedule in the league this year and the Giants have the hardest. BUT the 49ers also (for the first time in several years) have a net rest advantage this season. This will help them better deal with injuries or possibly avoid several with their players having more time to rest and heal injuries. Last year the 49ers had the WORST rest disadvantage in NFL history with -21 days. This means their opponents over the full season had a net 21 days more rest. The Giants first 8 weeks is BRUTAL. They are only favored in one game during that stretch and could be viewed as the worst team in the league depending how the games play out. Meanwhile the 49ers are only underdogs in 2 of their first 8 games AND play no games with a rest disadvantage to that point in the season. There's a good chance the Niners will be a 1 or 2 loss team heading into this game whereas the Giants may only be a 1 win team. The public is going to bet betting the 49ers like crazy come week 9 which makes me believe this line WILL move more in favor of the 49ers.
THE 49ERS WERE MORE EFFICIENT IN 24 THAN IN 23
Yes you read that right. I know a lot of people don't like betting games this far out due to injury risk and the unknown. But hey that's gambling for you. The 49ers had a terrible season last year thanks to injuries to a lot of key players. BUT Shanahan's passing offense was still efficient, even without their main guys.
2024: +0.34 EPA/attempt and 9.2 Y/A
2023: +0.31 EPA/attempt and 8.7 Y/A
Now just imagine when they get their star players back on the field. This is why I'm not too worried about the stacked defensive line that the Giants have nor care about the free agents they added to help out their secondary.
I could go on about the high likelihood of the 49ers defense to have a much improved season, but I'll just end it here. The 49ers should have a bounce back season while I don't even know if Daboll will still be the coach of the Giants by week 9.
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Here's where the money is at in MLB today!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html
Here's today's games!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html
I stumbled upon something today that is predictive of an NFL team's success ATS. For example, in week 4 this metric went 7-1 ATS! Would have went 8-0 had Geno Smith not turned the ball over 3 times and the FG didn't get blocked.
Still, that's strong.
I won't say what it is yet, I'll explain it on the show tomorrow. But here's the 7 teams (in order highest to lowest) that have a significant signal this week for success.
Bills
Detroit
Colts
Jags
Giants
Broncos
Commanders
I'm going to blindly bet these this week and see how it goes. Also, Panthers have a pretty big edge as well.
Mathematical Considerations For Teasers
Following on from last week's post on parlays on Sportspicks I'd like to explore the mathematical underpinnings of teasers. This is prompted partially by Robert Barnes' allusion to teasers showing an edge in college football last season and Will's analysis on teasers for NFL. I'll be posting this on Sportspicks too so that hopefully we'll all find a good edge on teasers this year in college football and NFL.
A teaser is an adjusted parlay that combines spreads and totals from either American football or basketball leagues. Whatever line you take, you adjust it by the same number in the same direction of action. Since spreads and totals are generally quoted on average a little bit below even money, parlays and teasers are quoted at odds that lengthen exponentially with each added leg. The primary difference is that teasers lengthen slower such that a two leg teaser has a similar price to its original constituent spreads and subsequent legs will diverge from...
NFL WEEK 3 CARD
SIDES AND ML
TEN +3.5 +100
TEN ML +174
CAR +5.5
CAR ML +203
LV +3.5
LV ML +148
GB -7.5
MIN -3
LAR +3 +104
LAR ML +165
HOU ML +110
DEN +3 -120
NO +7.5
TEASERS
POOL
MIA +17.5
MIA/BUF O 44.5
CAR +11.5
LV +9.5
GB -1.5
HOU +7
DEN +9
NO +13.5
LAR +9
NYJ +12.5
MY TEASER PICKS
MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155
LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150
CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150
LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
