Here’s everything I’m on for tomorrow in the NFL. All odds via Kalshi. If you don’t trade at Kalshi just convert the % to betting odds at your sportsbook. I will list the price I bought in at and you can choose to deviate away from that at your own comfortable risk. At the end of this I will have my BEST BET TEASER OF THE YEAR which I placed at my sportsbook (Kalshi doesn’t have teasers).
ATL/IND
IND wins by over 6.5 points NO: 49%
ATL to win: 28%
Jonathan Taylor TD: 73%
Jonathan Taylor 2+ TDs: 35%
Kyle Pitts TD: 27%
I see this as a good back and forth game. I will likely sell out if ATL gets up by 2 scores at some point and buy the other side on IND. I like JT this week. I cashed on him to not score a TD last week at massive plus money. It’s unlikely he doesn’t get one this week. ATL is good against the pass which means IND will be using JT even more especially in the redzone.
BAL/MIN
BAL wins by over 3.5 points NO: 48%
MIN to win: 35%
TJ Hockenson TD: 24%
JJ McCathy TD: 16%
We are supposed to be impressed by this BAL team now that Lamar is back and they beat up on a shitty MIA team? I’m not. Brian Flores has had success in the past against Lamar. MIN is playing for their division and playoff hopes. I think MIN pulls off the upset.
MIA/BUF
Josh Allen TD NO: 50%
James Cook 1st TD: 19%
James Cook TD: 65%
Josh Allen 250+ passing yards NO: 60%
BUF has a huge rushing edge in this game. Josh Allen has been rushing like crazy and getting TDs from it. In games that aren’t competitive his stats tend to be low. I don’t expect BUF to have to do much this game with Allen and will rely heavily on Cook.
CLE/NYJ
CLE to win: 46% (I got this early before the trade deadline)
Quinshon Judkins TD: 55%
Quinshon Judkins 1st TD: 17%
I also like Quinshon at 2+ TDs. Not available on Kalshi but should be on sportsbooks.
NE/TB
NE to win: 44%
NO/CAR
NO to win: 31%
CAR to win by over 3.5 points NO: 46%
NYG/CHI
Odunze TD: 37%
Odunze 2+ TDs: 8%
Odunze 1st TD: 11%
Odunze 50+ rec yards YES: 54%
Odunze was shutout last week after CHI scored 48 points. He wasn’t hurt. Just had a bad game. His dad has been chirping about it all week. Look for CHI to go to him early and often to make their young star WR happy against a terrible NYG defense.
LAR/SF
LAR to win by over 6.5 YES: 48%
LAR to win by over 9.5 YES: 37%
LAR to win by over 10.5 YES: 33%
Stafford 275+ pass yards YES: 48%
Stafford 300+ pass yards YES: 33%
Stafford over 350+ pass yards YES: 15%
Love the Rams in this spot. Revenge game. NFC playoff odds on the line. Stafford in the lose to them last month had 380+ pass yards. And now it’s a MORE banged up defense. Rams should move the ball at will here.
PIT/LAC
PIT ML 43%
LAC to win by more than 2.5 NO: 47%
Herbert over 30+ rush yards YES: 44%
Herbert over 40+ rush yards YES: 28%
TEASER OF THE YEAR
5 LEG
HOU +7 / MIN +10 / NE +8.5 / PIT +8.5 / DET -2
+420