It's finally happening! I have started to dive into the lines for this upcoming NFL season. I'll leave this pinned on here and I'll keep adding to it as I progress from division to division. This is just for player props and team futures. My "official plays" label means this is something I bet, I'll post where I found the line and my units on it. "Thinking" means I have my eye on it but something is keeping me from pulling the trigger most likely just waiting until we get closer to the season to start so nothing comes out of left field and ruins my pick like an injury or COVID news. Also if I see any lines I like for week one this far out that I'm on I'll add that to here as well.
OFFICIAL PLAYS
SF division winner +190 3 units
Wilson u 4250.5 pass yds +100 2 units
DK Metcalf u 1255.5 rec yds -110 2 units
SF make playoffs: yes -200 2 units
Nick Bosa CBPOY +1000 1 unit
Rams make playoffs: no +160 1 unit
Trea Lance offensive rookie of the year +750 1 unit
Vikings division winner +250 2 units
Rodgers under 4550.5 passing yards 3 units
Davante Adams under 1300.5 rec yards 2 units
Khali Mack over 9.5 sacks 1 unit
Bears make the playoffs: no -250 3 units
Lions under 5 wins -120 3 units
Bucs to win division -200 4 units
Brady u 4750.5 passing yards 2 units
Panthers to make playoffs: NO -275 3 units
Matt Ryan o 4450.5 o pass yards 2 units
Dak u 4795.5 pass yards 5 unit max play
WAS to win division +200
Giants to win divsion +325
Chiefs 10-14 wins -350
Broncos 10-14 wins +165
Chargers u 9.5 wins
Lamar Jackson MVP +1400
Steelers finish 3rd in division +115
Bengals finish last in division -220
Patriots o 9.5 wins
Patriots win division +350
Belichick COTY +1600
Baltimore Division Winner +150
Denver Division winner +520
Falcons 5-9 wins -240
Panthers 5-9 wins -230
Browns under 10.5 wins -115
Broncos over 8.5 wins -135
Detroit under 4.5 wins +110
Packers 10-14 wins -140
Jacksonville under 6.5 wins +110
Miami under 9.5 wins +115
Jets under 6 wins -130
Eagles under 6.5 wins +110
THINKING
I'm really liking HOU ML +135 but think I will wait because once week 1 comes I think we will see A LOT of the public jump on Jacksonville. Remember, rookie QB with rookie head coaches didn't win a game week 1 last season and only won 1 game through the first 3 weeks of the season. Now I know Urben Meyer isn't your usual rookie head coach but this is the NFL. People underestimate divisional games and must we forget Jacksonville was picking #1 for a reason and it's not because they were good.
SEA make the playoffs: no +100
Chris Godwin o 7.5 TDs
Antonio Brown o 5.5 TDs
Panthers worst NFL record +2500
Matt Ryan o 29.5 pass TDs
Daniel Jones o 3800.5 pass yards
WEEK 1
TB -6 3 units
UPDATE: I am going to be fading DAL HARD! Will be looking to bet TB 1Q and 1H along with several prop plays. I will post these as we get closer just giving you a heads up incase you want to jump on it now. Line has already moved to TB -7 for the game.
Already love this play and have bet it. This isn't a homer pick this is getting ahead of the casual bettors that will be all over the Bucs opening night and will drive this line above 7 so get it now. Here's why I love this pick and it has nothing to do with offense. It's all about defense. We know offenses start slow and defenses do well early on so I like that we are getting the hottest defense to end last season and they have all their starters back PLUS are at home. Cowboys had a historically bad defense last year and it doesn't matter who they added (which wasn't much) it won't make a difference week 1. Dan Quinn is now the D coordinator, which I like, but it's going to take time for the players to learn the system. Dallas is a team that I like week 8 on because I expect their defense to improve A LOT as the season progresses. But week 1 they are no match for Brady and the Bucs.
MIN v CIN
Pick: MIN -3.5 3 units
Love this play and a fading CIN who I think is more injured than people think. MIN is a great covering team and Zimmer is the best in the NFL ATS. I'm taking this bet NOW instead of waiting until we are closer because I don't think it comes down. Yes I would rather not have the hook but I think this number only goes up. And if it doesn't you better believe I will double down on this come week 1.
MIA @ NE
Pick: NE -2.5 and under 45.5
More analysis on this to come but lock in that number now
LAC @ WAS
PICK: WAS ML +100
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Welcome to our Rumble Premium reaction videos! This playlist will be from the book "Stugotz's Personal Record Book".
You can find a copy of the book here on Amazon:
https://a.co/d/9Rny595
Here's where the money is at in MLB today!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2xmf3k-mlb-daily-betting-report-july-2-2023.html
Here's today's games!
Rumble link:
https://rumble.com/v2x0jvl-mlb-daily-betting-report-june-29-2023.html
NFL 2026 Power Rankings
Here’s how I rank each team. I grade them vs an average team and what I believe the odds would be for that team if they played an average team on a neutral field.
For example, Rams +6 means I think the Rams are 6 points better than an average team on a neutral. Meaning that’s what I think the spread should be. I use this to find out what the spread should be compared to what the odds makers list. So if the Rams are +6 and facing a team at home that is +2 on a neutral, the net would be +4 plus homefield advantage. So I would have the Rams as a -5.5 to -6 favorite in this scenario at home (giving home field +1.5 to +2). If the books have the line at Rams -3.5 that would be a play for me due to my rankings have it at -5.5 to -6.
These rankings will adjust throughout the season as we get more data. I do not like to start a team higher than +6 or lower than -6 even if it might be deserved because there is so much unknown and variance in each game. If I were to ranking higher than this window to start the season I ...
The biggest discrepancies between MY power rankings and the current betting lines for week 1.
Lions -7 vs Saints - I make it Lions -4.5 – 2.5 points of implied value on the Saints
Steelers -3 vs Falcons - I make it Steelers -1.5 — 1.5 points of implied value on Falcons plus getting the key number of 3.
Bills -1.5 @ Texans - I make it pick’em (even) — 1.5 points of implied value on Texans (great teaser team)
Eagles -4.5 vs Commanders - I make it Eagles -7 — 2.5 points of implied value on Eagles
What does this mean? This will be my starting point to dive deeper to see why the market doesn’t match up with my numbers. If I feel like I am right then this will be a play for me. Time to do homework this next week!
What do you think?
College Football Classic - TCU 10 - 15 UNC
This is a crosspost from my post over on Sportspicks. On Saturday the 2026 College Football season kicked off at the Aviva Stadium in Lansdowne Road, Dublin. Opening the college football season in Ireland has become a regular feature of the schedule, with the Irish time zone leading to midday football if you are on the east coast and morning football if you are elsewhere in the USA. This year the College Football Classic was contested by the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs and the North Carolina Tar Heels. TCU were the administrative home team and thus had a significant share of the ticket allotment and indeed, most of the jerseys I saw when I was at the pub before the game were the purple of TCU. Although it is the convention to display the away team first in American sports, I noted that TCU were listed first on the scoreboards, which is in keeping with the convention of European sports so I have reproduced it as a feature of the venue. As the ...
NFL WEEK 3 CARD
SIDES AND ML
TEN +3.5 +100
TEN ML +174
CAR +5.5
CAR ML +203
LV +3.5
LV ML +148
GB -7.5
MIN -3
LAR +3 +104
LAR ML +165
HOU ML +110
DEN +3 -120
NO +7.5
TEASERS
POOL
MIA +17.5
MIA/BUF O 44.5
CAR +11.5
LV +9.5
GB -1.5
HOU +7
DEN +9
NO +13.5
LAR +9
NYJ +12.5
MY TEASER PICKS
MIA +17.5 / BUF-MIA O 44.5 / GB -1.5 +155
LAR +9 / HOU +7 / NO +13.5 +150
CAR +11.5 / GB -1.5 / DEN +9 +150
LV +9.5 / NYJ +12.5 / NO +13.5 +160
Here's everything I'm on for the big game. I have several big bets, parlays, props, and long shot props!
I'm betting this game to make a profit, not how I think it will play out. I honestly don't care either way who wins this game, nor do I have a strong feeling on how it will play out. It's all about making money. I'll specify my strategies with certain bets on how I'm going to play them.
My overall thoughts on the game is the Eagles have the better roster, are the better team, have the ability to control this game and drain clock. Which is exactly why I expect the Chiefs to end up winning.
WILL ADD MORE OVER THE WEEKEND SO CHECK BACK
