If you're looking for my picks for round 1 scroll to the bottom. Here are some thoughts I have about betting this tournament. I'll do a video on it later but since you guys are supportive members of this great community I wanted to share with you first.

UNDERDOGS

Every year there are upset in the tournament. They get highlighted because of "bracket busters". But don't force yourself into thinking you know which dogs are going to win. The best thing you can do is bet a wide range of them, even ones you don't think will actually win, because those are the ones that usually come through.

There are two different ways I like to tackle betting underdogs in this tournament.

The first as you guys know is by betting on dogs that are +150 or better. As I have said many times, betting on a dog at +150 means you only need to win 40% of the time to be profitable. And in a tournament where dogs win more than your average night of games, this gives us an even bigger edge. So I like to take several dogs when I can and bet the same amount on each hoping that 2 out of every 5 bets end up being winners.

Next, take dogs you like with points. I also like to take them 1H with points. So let's say you were thinking about betting them with the points for game at $50, split that up either 25/25 or $30 for game $20 for 1H. My theory is if a dog is going to be in it for the game it's because they had a competitive 1H (if not dominate).

What you will see from me is a lot of taking a dog on the points and the money line. Here's how I would tackle this:

Let's say you were going to take a dog with the points at $50. What I recommend you do is take the points with $30 and the ML at $20. The idea here is if you were right about the points and that wins you will still come out a little ahead even if the dog doesn't win, but you give yourself a good shot at extra profits if the dog wins outright while not risking it all on the dog to win outright.

Example: Marquette vs North Carolina

$30 Marquette +4
$20 Marquette ML +150

If Marquette covers the +4 but doesn't win you return $27ish. Minus your $20 ML bet and you net $7. A positive return.
If Marquette wins the game you get your $27ish plus $30 more to net a $57 return off a $50 bet.
If Marquette loses and doesn't cover you are out your $50 either way.

(now you may see me out there betting the same amount on both bets [$50 on Marquette +4 and $50 on ML] and I DO NOT recommend this. I'm a little more risky in some of my bets and it can bite me in the ass sometimes. Therefore I recommend you play it the most conservative way as I showed above.)

You will also see me do the same method above in the same game for the 1H (remember, I believe if a dog is going to be in the game they will have to be for the 1H as well). There's two ways to play that. Bet $50 for game and $50 for half or to be conservative and take your $50 and split it up between both.

Example:

$50 for both
Marquette +4 $30
Marquette ML +150 $20
Marquette 1H +2 $30
Marquette 1H +130 $20

$50 total
Marquette +4 $15
Marquette ML +150 $10
Marquette 1H +2 $15
Marquette 1H +130 $10

either way is fine it's whatever you are more comfortable with. And remember, $50 here is just an example, bet whatever you are comfortable with and would normally bet on 1 game.

PARLAYS

Normally I would say avoid parlays but this tournament gives you a great opportunity to use them wisely. I haven't checked what the return would be that all the 1 seeds win the 1st round would return (probably not much) but that's a guaranteed profit that you might as well take advantage of and who knows maybe throw some 2 seeds into it as well.

My main advice for this is to only parlay favorites you like. Bet dogs separately. And when you do match up favorites you like in a parlay make sure at least one of them is in a different time slot so you can hedge your way out for a guaranteed profit if you make it to the last leg.

I will add more to this later and have my picks posted here in the AM. I'm waiting for some 1H lines to open up so I can fill out my card completely. If you have any questions please feel free to DM me or ask them in the live chat.

THURSDAY PICKS
1-2% of your bankroll on these

Michigan -1✅
Michigan/CSU under 137❌
Michigan 1H ML❌
Michigan/CSU 1H u 63.5❌
Providence -2✅
Providence 1H -1✅
Memphis ML -154✅
Memphis 1h ML -139✅
Parlay: Memphis 1H / Providence 1H ✅
Norfolk St 1H +11.5 ❌
Tennessee 1H -10✅
Iowa 1H -5.5❌
Georgia St 1H +13.5✅
Parlay: Georgia State +23.5 / under 150❌
UNC -3.5✅
UNC -1.5 1H ✅
New Mexico +6.5✅
New Mexico ML +235✅
New Mexico 1H +3.5✅
New Mexico 1H ML +180✅
Creighton +2.5✅
Creighton ML +115✅
Kentucky 1H -10.5❌
Kentucky -17.5❌
Arkansas 1H -2.5 ✅
San Fran 1H ML✅
UCLA 1H -7.5❌
Kansas 1H -12.5✅
Kansas -22

FRIDAY PICKS